Perspectives on Bolivia: Some Writings by Others

Readers:

In the week since Sunday’s election a good deal of valuable analysis has been written, all from a different perspective, none of it sole owner of ‘the truth’ (including my own), and much of it worth reading.

We thought we would offer introductions and links to four of these – most from friends but not all. I am sure that others know additional sources and we hope you will provide links below in the comments section.

Jim Shultz

The Street and the Ballot Box: Voices From Bolivia's Recall Vote
Alex van Schaick, Luis Gonzales and Teresa Carrasco

Published by Upside Down World, a web site that works hard and provides a solid collection of articles on not just Bolivia but Latin America as a whole (edited by our friend Ben Dangl).

Cochabamba, Bolivia - On August 10, leftist President Evo Morales, won a resounding victory in Bolivia's recall referendum. The vote invigorated Morales' mandate in what was a broad endorsement from his base and beyond. As Toribio Terrazas, a farmer from outside Comunidad Mamenaca explained, "I want the president to continue because he is forging a good path for all Bolivians in the country."

In the week before the recall referendum, and on the day of the voting, we interviewed number of voters, and political and social movement leaders about the importance of the referendum, the changes it might produce, and what they thought about president Evo Morales and prefect Manfred Reyes Villa.

Article, interviews & photos here.


Putting the Political Battle in Context
Mark Weisbrot and Luis Sandoval

Published by The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a solid research organization based in Washington that marries technical investigations with a progressive perspective, and a special interest in Latin America.

This past Sunday’s recall referendum was of course just the latest episode in the ongoing political battle between the MAS-led national government and an opposition movement in the Eastern lowlands that counts several prefects among its members. But what’s this struggle all about?

Control over resources, including land and natural gas deposits, is at the heart of it, according to a new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. The paper, “The Distribution of Bolivia's Most Important Natural Resources and the Autonomy Conflicts, shows that the concentration of land in Bolivia - among a very small group of landowners - appears to be among the very worst in the entire world. The paper also notes that even though Bolivia distributes its hydrocarbon revenues more than any in the world to provincial and local governments, the Eastern lowland states are advocating that they should receive even more of this money.

Read the full paper here.


"Change Comes from Mobilization,” An Interview with Oscar Olivera
Interview conducted by Sarah Hines

Published by the Socialist Worker, which offers a socialist analysis of issues and events often ignored by the mainstream media but still vitally important.

An August 10 recall referendum confirmed Bolivian President Evo Morales' tenure in office with a 68 percent vote--but also saw right-wing prefects, or governors, win big in four eastern departments that have been pushing for autonomy.

Meanwhile, the problems facing ordinary Bolivians remain unsolved, according to Oscar Olivera, the Secretary General of the Federation of Factory Workers of Cochabamba. Sarah Hines interviewed Olivera in Cochabamba shortly before the referendum vote.

What is the significance of the recall referendum?

The recall referendum--a measure that we have demanded for a long time--can mean a deepening of democracy. When the Water War took place here in Cochabamba in 2003, we organized a referendum around the issue to allow the rank and file to make their voice heard regarding this imposition [of the privatization of water] by the government.
At that time, the referendum was illegal--it was not thought of as a democratic norm. I believe that a referendum serves to deepen democracy a bit more, in that the citizens are asked once in a while if the rulers are doing their job well. But I see it as having more of a symbolic value than being useful as such. While a referendum can be a signal from the people, I believe the only way to change how the politicians govern is the mobilization of the people.

Read the full interview here.


Everybody Loses
New York Times Editorial

All sides are claiming victory in last weekend’s competing referenda to recall the Bolivian president, Evo Morales, and rival governors. But the continuing political warfare is leading the country to a destructive impasse.

More than two-thirds of Bolivians voted to keep Mr. Morales in power. His four main rivals in the gas-rich eastern lowlands also won by large margins. Mr. Morales claims that he now has the mandate to call a national referendum on constitutional reforms that would give even more power to the presidency and allow him to seek another term. All four governors have rejected those changes and insist that their wins mean they must now be given more autonomy.

The proposed reforms are already legally dubious. Virtually all opposition delegates were excluded from the constitutional assembly proceedings that approved the changes. Before the recall election, protesters blocked Mr. Morales from visiting the provinces of Tarija and Santa Cruz.

Read the editorial here.

Dancing in Urkupiña 2008

Readers:

It may come as a surprise to some who don't live here that not every event in Bolivia has to do with politics, and not every breath includes mention of Evo Morales. With Sunday's elections still just a few days old, attention here in the Cochabamba Valley has turned to something else entirely – Urkupiña, the festival of the Virgin (that Virgin) in nearby Quillacollo. Today the streets of that nearby small town are filled with thousands of dancers – a flowing river of detailed costumes and well-practiced movements that takes nearly 12 hours to pass from beginning to end.

And this year The Democracy Center is well-represented. Aldo Orellana and Leny Olivera danced both yesterday in La Entrada Auctoctono (the more traditional dances from the countryside) and today as well in the main event. And along with them today is Yi-Ching Hwang, born in Taiwan, migrated to the U.S. and now bringing her best moves to the streets of Quillacollo. We asked her to share her experiences in preparation for today's event here on the Blog, and here it is.

For those interested in more photos and explanations of what this festival is about, here is a link to our slide show and report a few years back.

Now, some might ask, "Jim, why aren't you on the streets of Quillacollo today, wearing a devil's head or perhaps a Caporales mini-skirt?" To that I reply – Wielding size 13 sneakers and a definitely 'gringo' appearance, I don't need to do anything to make even more a spectacle of myself in public here. Besides, someone had to work today. But stay tuned for Carnival. That nun costume might just be back.

Feliz Urkupiña a tod@s!

Jim Shultz


Dancing in Urkupiña 2008
by Yi-Ching Hwang

We all had to wear black underwear, not thongs, not tights, but black underwear. And one by one they checked us.

“Lift up your skirt and show it to me,” ordered our Sol Chaqueño San Simón fraternity sister, Natalí. I swear, she is not always this mean, it must have been the pressure of convite.

Around two weeks before the official Urkupiña Fiesta here in Quillacollo, a convite is held where all participating groups are invited to demonstrate their excellence. During convite we rehearsed the Urkupiña route, familiarizing ourselves with the bumpy pavement and sometimes windy, snake-like, narrow, cobblestone streets. It is a time especially for less experienced dancers to get their feet wet with street, parade dancing. Though not the official procession, lots of Quillacollo residents set out their chairs, lean over their balcony, and cheer the dancers on.

A couple of years ago, as a Peace Corps volunteer living two hours outside of Cochabamba, I participated in many city parades as a spectator. The last time I was in Urkupiña, I got lost in the wild, drunken crowd, hit on the head by a flying empty water bottle, and vowed never to come back to this crazy festival.

But here I am, chatting with the shoe repairman about the most strategic way to put rubber padding on the bottom of my black high heals to prevent the least damage to my delicate behind-the-computer-all-day feet. Urkupiña is only a day away, I have spent weeks and hours perfecting all those turns, choreography, and the best way to sway and swerve the long skirt to tactically show and hide my black underwear. Despite the lingering doubt about whether I can make it through 6 hours of dancing combating the different terrain and street size (not to mention potentially fending off drunkards), I can’t wait!

Chacarera is a dance from the Chaco region that is composed of bits of Paraguay, northern Argentina, and South Eastern Bolivia. The name is said to originate from the word chacarero, which means he who works in the chacra or farm. In Bolivia, the dance is characterized by mischievousness, vivacity and an air of ‘flirtiness.’ Danced in partners, the chacarera music is a mixture of bass drums, violin, and guitar.

Today in Cochabamba there are two main groups from whom one can learn this lovely dance. I joined the fraternity Sol Chaqueño San Simón out of almost sheer fate. Since May, on my way home from work, I would pass by groups practicing at a nearby plaza. Crisp night air, music and lively moves cutting through the otherwise stillness of the neighborhood, the plaza turned into an open stage sheltered by giant Jacarandá trees. It was too much to resist. Memories of high school and college dancing came floating up, playing with my imagination. Yi-Ching flaring about in the plaza with new Bolivian friends, learning new and cool moves?! The rest is history.

Sol Chaqueño San Simón is an open fraternity, all welcoming and encompassing. Our dancers include 7, 8 year old kids up until forty, fifty year olds. Physical stamina is the only limit. Anyone with a smile, strong dedication, and commitment can join. In July on a sunny Saturday afternoon, a few weeks after I started practicing, I was officially baptized into the fraternity. As a Taiwanese coming from a non-baptizing religious background (nor ever having joined a sorority/fraternity in college), for the first time in my life, I picked a godmother (my dance instructor), was drizzled with the plaza fountain water, and welcomed into the arms of the fraternity.

What followed was not just an afternoon of photos, reggeton music, and lollypops to suck on, but a beginning of a bondage that goes beyond learning the steps of this 8-part dance. Chacarera practice opened a door where we snuck in bits and pieces of cultural exchange, and sometimes even brief conversations of the most recent political topics.

“bichi, piching, iching...what is your name again?”

I must have been called a dozen names. But mixed in with the Y que venga la segunda Chacarera music, they all sounded sweet to me.

What are you doing here? From so far away? How did you decide to dance Chacarera? Can you sing that Taiwanese song again so I record it on my cell phone? It’s so preeetty!

Having spent half of my youth in Taiwan and half in the States, and then two years in rural Bolivia trying to do some development work but mostly perfecting my potato peeling skills and frustrated with my poor Quechua speaking ability, there have been days when I cringed and cried feeling like a black sheep not fitting in anywhere.

But these days, despite the supposedly division in Bolivia and what the news may broadcast as social and racial tension, what I’ve lived is a corner of Bolivia where there is curiosity of differences and going beyond that, a genuine acceptance. My Sol Chaqueño brothers and sisters come from Cochabamba, Santa Cruz, wealthy Cala Cala households, almost rural Vinto and Punata (towns 40 minutes to an hour outside of Cochabamba). For two hours everyday, what we do is work on our dancing but also on building harmonious relationships and keeping an eye out for each other.

When one lives intimately in a place, and daily is engrossed in the everyday lives of Bolivians, one sees beyond the news headlines of violence and racial conflicts. Sometimes amid political upheaval, we forget that Bolivia is more than just the recent referendum recall or the divisions over autonomy. As important as those topics may be, dancing in Sol Chaqueño San Simón provided a balance for me. Not only am I here in Bolivia learning about citizen power and taking democracy to the streets, I am also here building friendships with Bolivians and enriching myself with a dance that’s more than 150 years old.

Photo credit: Lynn Nesselbush

Bolivia: An Election Post-Mortem

I am always amazed at how people who don’t actually live in Bolivia produce such rapid and certain analyses of events here and what they mean. Official election results for Sunday haven’t even been announced yet by the Corte Electoral and already the Web is full of articles declaring with great confidence what the Evo vote meant and why.

In many cases these analyses are based on a simple formula:

View events – sprinkle briskly with pre-established ideology – come to conclusion that supports that ideology.

Sometimes the ideology involved is right wing: Evo’s victory is a dangerous win for Chavez-style social manipulation of the ignorant.

Sometimes the ideology is left wing: Evo’s victory signals the continuation of the hunger of Latin America’s poor for genuine socialism.

Do certain people abroad really believe that Bolivia is inhabited by women with long braids carrying Noam Chomsky under their arm?

After ten years here I have come to one relatively certain conclusion. Bolivians are like most people everywhere. When they think about politics they don’t really come at it ideologically. They come at it very practically. Their chief consideration is: what do they think will make their lives better, especially given how tough life can be here for so many.

Bechtel didn’t get kicked out because people wanted to fight corporate power (though the leaders of the Water Revolt did). It is because the Bozos running the corporation thought that they could raise water rates by more than 50% overnight and get away with it. In economics the technical term for this is called stupidity.

So, based on a different ideology, one called “Bolivians are smart and know how to look out for their interests,” here is my own analysis of Sunday’s vote – and it ain’t rocket science.

First, the “Age of Evo” was inevitable in Bolivia.

Most Bolivians live so close to the economic cliff that they worry day-to-day just about the basics – feeding their families, keeping a roof overhead, affording the 1.50 Bs. fare for the bus. Their obvious “class interest” is not ideological; it is in people’s faces hour by hour. There are certainly many people in Bolivia who do not need to worry about such things but they are not the majority, or even close to it.

For years the real political question in Bolivia was: Why hasn’t some politician or political party come along and figured out how to represent that majority and win its electoral support? Sooner or later it was inevitable that one would, and one did, Evo. It could have been someone else besides Evo and MAS, but it was Evo and MAS that set out to do so, while other left leaders focused on other things. And none of the others who tried the election route, like Felipe Quispe, had anywhere near the long-term commitment or savvy to pull it off. Evo and MAS did make it their work and they were aided greatly by the incompetence and ruthlessness by some of those who preceded Evo in the Presidency, adding to Evo’s base of support.

I know lots of people who went to the polls Sunday and voted for Evo and their reasoning is pretty simple. In Evo they see a President on their side and in the opposition they see a lot of leaders who look and sound and just like those who have ignored them. Every time Ruben Costas (the Governor) rants in Santa Cruz it only makes Evo stronger. Any hesitations they might have about competence or combativeness by Evo are really much less on their minds than the simple fact that in Evo they see themselves. And that is something very, very new for them in Bolivian politics.

Second, Evo’s Adversaries on the right are louder than their numbers.

The numbers from Sunday speak for themselves. Two thirds of Bolivians want Evo to be President, a third does not. You don’t get more lopsided than that in politics.

Look at it by region. According to the latest results, Evo will win majorities in seven of Bolivia’s nine departments, and majorities of greater than two-thirds in four of them, including two of the largest, La Paz and Cochabamba.

Where is the opposition? Well, it isn’t an overwhelming force in Chuquisaca the way those Sucre leaders would like to portray things. Evo is winning 54% in the department where “capatilia” is king. Opponents can certainly claim Beni, where 58% of those who went to Sunday’s polls voted to oust Morales. But with 100,000 voters out of 8 million Bolivians that puts it in a league roughly akin to Quillacollo, a smallish city down the road here where Evo won handily.

And then there is Santa Cruz, the only region of any size in Bolivia where Evo lost, 60/40. The real result of Sunday’s vote maybe the political isolation of Bolivia’s most vocal department and in particular its vocal leadership. Before Sunday one could speak of the Media Luna, a coalition of anti-Evo departments with Manfred Reyes Villa trying hard to add Cochabamba and make it five. After Sunday what you have is Ruben Costas and the usual gang of Santa Cruz civic leaders screaming for coups and autonomy and tossing out racial insults while they watch the rest of the country slip away.

How is it that the position of Evo’s hardcore opponents got so inflated?

Across Bolivia, the people who you see on the television each night (I do sneak a peak on other people’s TVs from time to time) or who you read about in the press, are not people like my rural neighbors who voted across Bolivia in droves for Evo. Who you see and hear from is a small minority of Bolivians who make an effort daily to be in the news.

As it turns out, the faces you see in the news sections of the paper are no more representative of Bolivia than all those smiling faces at the quincineras of the wealthy that you see on the society pages.

There is the bluster factor. The old Bolivian right wing, which it seems is really going extinct by way of the dinosaur, is making a lot of noise as it goes, imitating with hunger strikes and road blockades the attention-grabbing tactics long used by the left. There is no question, as I have written before, that civic leaders in Santa Cruz and Sucre have been able to turn their agenda into an appeal to regional interest with good success. But those pockets are getting smaller and more isolated, which may explains why Costas’ rhetoric is getting more extreme. Evo picked up seven points in Santa Cruz over his vote there in 2005.

Third, Can Evo Use the Moment?

Morales was skillful Sunday night, going back to looking and acting Presidential and leaving it to his adversaries to act like school bullies looking for a fight. When the votes are analyzed I think it will become clear that his support in the cities and among the middle class remains as weak as his support among the rural and the impoverished is strong. But he needs the cities and the middle class to govern. Acting Presidential is a good start.

But then he has a choice to make. Will he lead with initiatives that aim directly at people’s daily lives – like his programs offering payments to school children and the elderly? Or will he use his renewed political capital to push the agenda aimed more at making the shift in political power more permanent, by pushing forward with a vote on MAS’ proposed constitution?

While this current “Age of Evo” was inevitable (even if led by someone else) it is not forged in stone. There is one political force in Bolivia far more powerful than indigenous identity, class interest, or even regional interest. And that is public dissatisfaction. If people see in Evo a government that is incapable of lifting up their lives (even if they think he is trying) someone else will come along and capture that wind.

Morales and MAS have proven themselves very adept at politics. Very adept. But they have yet to demonstrate a similar adeptness at actually governing. If I were them I’d lend my attention now to that.

Photo: Los Angeles Times

The Evo Landslide: How He Won It

A note to readers: Tuesday morning I did a brief interview with Amy Goodman and Democracy Now on the aftermath of Sunday's vote in Bolivia. If you want to see that segment of the program or read a transcript of it, visit here.

Updated, Tuesday at Noon

By any measure, Evo’s victory in Sunday’s ‘revocatoria’ vote was a political landslide. According to an official tally based on 75% of votes recorded (and his margin increases as those votes are counted) Morales won 65% of the vote, surpassing his already formidable 2005 victory by 11%. He won majorities in five of the country’s departments – La Paz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosi, and Pando – and is split bascally 50/50 in two others that are part of the supposed opposition, Chuquisaca and Tarija.

In what other nation on earth is the President supported by 2/3 of voters? More dramatic still this comes on the heels of decades of Bolivian Presidents elected with less than a quarter of the vote.

Where did the Morales victory come from?

Below is a table I put together comparing the department-by-department results for Morales December 2005 election and the equivalent results from Sunday’s vote.

Some important findings:

1. Evo increased his vote from 2005 in every department in the country, except for Chuquisaca, where he slipped from 54% support in the 2005 vote to 48% Sunday.

2. In four departments Evo’s support jumped extraordinarily. In Beni and Pando, members of the so-called “Media Luna rebellion” Morales support leapt by 25% and 32% from the 2005 totals. In four other departments Morales’ vote jumped by more than 15%.

3. In Santa Cruz, the heart of the anti-Evo rebellion, Morales got 40% of the vote, a 5%increase from 2005.

4. In La Paz and Cochabamba, which together represent almost half of Bolivia’s total population (46%) Morales won an average of more than 75% of the vote.

If more serious political scientists that I ever get their hands on more complete data, they’ll be able to explain all this more than I can. But based on these results I am guessing the following:
First, the strong base that Evo and MAS already has among the rural poor now seems virtually unanimous in his favor and has gotten the required documents to vote and voted in far larger numbers than in 2005.

Second, in Chuquisaca and Tarija especially, and in Santa Cruz as well, those famous civic leaders who claim to speak for their peoples will find that a lot of those peoples don’t support them at all. They support Morales. By controlling the local media and in turn the vast majority of public limelight, those ‘civic leaders’ have been allowed to paint a very distorted view of anti-Morales sentiment in their regions.

None of this gets to the trickier issues of how Morales needs to deal with regional leaders, and a third of the population that does stand squarely against him. That analysis I’ll leave to later. But these statistics do make it clear that Morales has a huge national majority at his side, and one that stretches across a far wider map than many critics would care to admit.

Notes:

The Bolivian population figures used here come from the national 2001 census. Here's the link.

The figures for the December 2005 election results come from the National Election Court. Here's the link.

The figures for Sunday’s ‘revocatoria’ election results come the National Election Court. Here’s that link.

The photo above is a beautiful shot taken by our friend Noah Friedman-Rudovsky, who shot it for the New York Times, ripped off by me from the Times’ web site without any permission whatsoever.