Help Wanted: President for Latin American Country

As of now it seems like Bolivia will soon have a new President, but no one knows who.

President Carlos Mesa added a new demand this week to his staying in office, new elections for the Congress and Presidency by August of this year – two years early. Rejection of that demand by the Congress seems to be the one thing that has unified every major political party in the country. So now Carlos Mesa says that if the Congress doesn’t go along he will resign (as he has been threatening to do off and on for nearly two weeks).

Even his harshest critics have called on Mesa to stay. But it doesn’t take a rocket scientist at this point to figure out that the man does not want to be President any more and that Bolivia will more than likely have a new President by this time next week.

But who?

The Bolivian Constitution lays out clear rules for succession but its practical politics that will drive events. First in line is Senate President Hormando Vaca Diez, a man with now constituency of any kind and plenty of opponents. Last week he announced he wouldn’t assume the Presidency if Mesa left, now his intent is less clear. Movement Toward Socialism leader, Evo Morales, spelled out the position of the Bolivian left pretty clearly, “Hormando won’t last 24 hours.”

Next in line is the President of the House of Representatives, Mario Cossio. His intentions and public reaction to him assuming the red, yellow and green sash is unclear at this point. Third in line, if the other two either don’t accept or are forced out is the President of the nation’s Supreme Court, in which case the Constitution would also require early elections.

It is all starting to look like George McGovern looking for a running mate in 1972. Heck, at this point even I have a shot at becoming President. If it weren’t such a sad turn of events for the nation it would be almost comical. It is also a worrisome repeat of history and Bolivia’s once-famous reputation for revolving door Presidents. From 1978 to 1982, Bolivia had nine different Presidents – some elected, some brutal dictators. We’re not there yet, but if Mesa leaves next week Bolivia will be on its fifth President since 2001.

I was in the room with some of the country’s main social movement leaders that night in October 2003 as we all watched Mesa accept the Presidency on national television, as a split screen showed his predecssor's flying off to exile in the US. There was such hope that night. Mesa seemed to be a real leader – smart, articulate, principled, independent. The guy even had the guts to make an unannounced appearance the next day before a multitude of protesters in La Paz, those who had tossed out Sànchez de Lozada the day before, asking for their support.

He was a man who always wanted to study the Presidency but it seems really did not want to occupy it. History should have told him that few Presidents, here or anywhere, get everything they want. Telling the country – “Do what I say or I leave.” – is probably not the legacy he wished for but it looks certain now that it will be the one he earns.