Bolivia Heads for a National Shutdown
After a weekend of relative calm, the new week brings a renewal of protests and La Paz and threats by social movements to shut down other major parts of the country, such as Cochabamba.
Neighborhood groups in El Alto, coca growers, campesino groups from the altiplano, the national labor federation (COB), and others have focused their demands on the immediate arrangement of a Constituent Assembly to address the gas issue and a restructuring of formal political power in the country. The Congress is supposed to come back into session today to address that issue but many members have demanded guarantees that they will be allowed to meet. The movements have been trying to shut the Congress down.
As I wrote last week, the most obvious of the “exits” from the current confrontation is that the Catholic Church, the Assembly on Human Rights, and the Defensor del Pueblo get the movements and the government to a table to negotiate a “truega” or pause. The most obvious way to do that is for the government to agree to the convening of the Constituent Assembly with no restrictions on what it can take up. I think that anything short of that means that the conflicts will go on and will escalate in ways no one can predict. Hopefully the government will have the good sense to make that announcement soon.
Neighborhood groups in El Alto, coca growers, campesino groups from the altiplano, the national labor federation (COB), and others have focused their demands on the immediate arrangement of a Constituent Assembly to address the gas issue and a restructuring of formal political power in the country. The Congress is supposed to come back into session today to address that issue but many members have demanded guarantees that they will be allowed to meet. The movements have been trying to shut the Congress down.
As I wrote last week, the most obvious of the “exits” from the current confrontation is that the Catholic Church, the Assembly on Human Rights, and the Defensor del Pueblo get the movements and the government to a table to negotiate a “truega” or pause. The most obvious way to do that is for the government to agree to the convening of the Constituent Assembly with no restrictions on what it can take up. I think that anything short of that means that the conflicts will go on and will escalate in ways no one can predict. Hopefully the government will have the good sense to make that announcement soon.

The Democracy Center, based in Cochabamba Bolivia and San Francisco California, works globally to advance human rights through a combination of investigation and reporting, training citizens in the art of public advocacy, and organizing international citizen campaigns. If you like the Blog, consider becoming a subscriber to The Democracy Center's free e-newsletter by sending us an email at 
13 Comments:
I am bothered by all the hype surrounding this latest wave of protests in Bolivia. Nothing represents it better than Jim Shultze´s recent blog headline, "Bolivia Heads for a National Shutdown". I have been reading local (Cochabamba) papers on a regular basis since January and and a similar headline seems to pop up almost every day. What's the point? Rarely is there an analysis of who actually is involved in these protests. Maybe it's because the press (which is obviously not on the side of the protesters) doesn't want to give any of the movements any power. And yet the press never seems to own up to the fact that although they keep warning about impending chaos it never seems to come. It's like the weather guys back home yelling about the latest storm front that looks like it's going to demolish the city and when it slides on south they never own up to their bad prediction.
Is Bolivia headed for a shutdown? Isn't it better to say downtown La Paz and El Alto is headed for a shutdown? Sure there are calls for roadblocks on Wednesday but how confident are we that this will be carried out and that it will be complied with? Does anyone want to venture to guess or even attempt to analyze that? What does it mean, a group of 200 miners is going to stop traffic in Parotani or are we talking a massive stoppage with thousands of supporters? Is it a threat that can easily be bought off as the miners were early last week?
I haven't been in Bolivia too long now but I am becoming like the Bolivians here in the valle bajo of Cochabamba. I go about like business as usual, as if nothing is going on despite what the papers are trying to tell me. There is a teachers strike, and that affects me, but as I travel into the city guardapolvos are everywhere. Where's all the support from the "socialist" teachers? If after two weeks the bulk of the teachers can't get on board then who will and what are they waiting for?
I have my doubts that this is a significant movement. There is all kinds of rhetoric about indigenous rights but this is becoming a cosmopolitan society weaned from its indigenous roots and dependent on globalization. That's not a judgement, just an analysis. The only hope the left has is that Chavez or China is going to come in and save the day when the world financial community retaliates. Now many like the idea of allying with Chavez but are worried that he is strong enough to save Bolivia. Imagine, the left is so backed into a corner that they are hoping that China will come in and invest. That's the same country that grows on slave labor wages and is turning out the next generations biggest multinational companies. Their going to be happy with a low return on their investments? Only if it gives them political capital in world affairs. Sounds like a gamble to me.
Bolivia is headed not for a shutdown but for a constitutional assmbly. It won't be easily won but it will come. The west may have to trade a little and give into an autonomy election but they can also negotiate a referendum question that is not too far right. If the question is too far right they can condition the referendum by saying that some datils can be worked out in the assembly. There are many ways to get out of this mess. Instead of yelling about the falling sky folks in the media could start discussing in detail what autonomy means and what can be achieved with the constitutional assembly. Don't give into the rhetorical games of brinksmanship that all the movements - western, eastern, indigenous, and business-are using.
Jim, i know you don't want to respond to questions, but, if possible, could you tell me whether or not the bolivian pension funds do indeed have 50 percent ownership of the gas sector? i thought that this is what goni's capitalization plan called for? yet, in all the present gas debate, everyone talks/write as if the gas was entirely privatized and put in the hands of the private sector. if its true the pension funds already get a 50 percent cut, then aren't we talking about in reality a 68 percent royalty for the state on gas revenues and, above that, a new 32 percent tax on private gas companies revenues..that adds up to a big pot of money does it not?? virtually nationalized already in terms of revenues.
Just in case, it's "tregua", a sort of still time when everything stops for a while. :-)
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