Monday, June 20, 2005

Blog from Britain II – An Economist Fairy Tale

London

Several times this week my walks about town have taken me past the headquarters of that venerable British weekly, The Economist. Somewhere inside, a writer for the magazine was cheerily weighing in on events a hemisphere away in Bolivia, in an article that carried the appropriate subtitle: Some dangerous fairy tales about what is going on in South America.

I say “appropriate” because the article does a fine job of spinning a whopping fairy tail of its own about events in the country where I live. [Note: Since the actually article is hidden behind a pay-for-it fence at the magazine’s Web site, I’ll post the full text in a comment to this Blog entry.]

The unnamed Economist writer (Has he ever been in Bolivia? It is not an unreasonable question.) warns that too much of the international commentary has painted recent Bolivian events as “a popular revolution by downtrodden Andean Indians.” One “pundit” is singled out for special scorn, someone who wrong-headedly told the New York Times, “that Latin America is in open rebellion against the economic policies of the Washington consensus.”

The unnamed pundit was I.

In any event, in getting the story wrong the Economist writer followed the time-tested formula for conjuring up a fairy tale:

First, Have a Vivid Imagination

With a single stroke the Economist rewrites Bolivian history to blame public control of gas and oil (as it was until a decade ago) for the nation’s notorious economic suffering in the 1980s: Inefficient state oil and mining companies stoked the hyperinflation of the early 1980s.

Indeed, Bolivia’s notorious hyperinflation of two decades ago was a disaster to behold. People still tell stories of the prices of food and shoes shooting up by double between breakfast and dinner. The culprit was not, however the sin of having the nation’s natural resources in public hands. It had a good deal more to do with the collapse of global tin market on which nearly half of the nation’s economy depended. That and years of dictatorships.

Second, Invent the Villains

The Economist has a simple explanation about why tens of thousands of Indians, miners, workers, students and others chased down their government leaders to demand recuperation of the nation’s oil and gas – outside funding. The Economist writes:

Where does the money come from? Venezuela's populist president, Hugo Chavez, of whom Mr. Morales is a disciple? Perhaps, though there is no proof. The drug trade? Maybe. European NGOs? Probably, in some cases.

You might disagree with their economic analysis. Fair enough. But the people I have spoken to marching under a hot Bolivian sun have been there because they really do want the country to take back the gas and oil and convinced that nothing short of marching will get the government to listen given the huge pressures being brought to bear on the other side from the real external forced involved – British Petroleum, the IMF and others.

Five years ago the same they can’t possibly be mad about what they say they are mad about thinking tried to blame drug traders for the Cochabamba water revolt. Do foreign writers like the one for the Economist really think Bolivians can’t think for themselves?

Finally, Have a Moral

Lastly we have this gem of Economist insight into the course of politics among Bolivia and its neighbors:

As for that continental rebellion against the Washington consensus, it is largely confined to Venezuela, where high oil prices have let Mr. Chavez defy the laws of economics. Elsewhere, Latin America's poor are too busy trying to earn a living to indulge such
fantasies.


Last I checked Brazil did not elect Lula because he pledged to defend and deepen the Washington Consensus status quo there. In Argentina, the President responded to the IMF’s demands to pay down its debt with a declaration that he’d consider thirty cents or so on the dollar. Uruguay didn’t just elect a Socialist president because he was endorsed by BP or the World Bank. In Bolivia the struggle may be on the streets but it is all part of the same region-wide public rebellion against a package of economic policies that the people living with them have dubbed an outright failure.

The spin is on my friends. Some people out there desperately want the world to believe that Bolivia’s five years of uprisings against the policies of market-driven globalization are anything but. Drug traffickers, not high Bechtel water rates drove people into the streets of Cochabamba in 2000. Renegade police leaders, not at IMF-imposed tax increase, are what led to 34 deaths in February 2003. Cash from Hugo Chavez drove Bolivia to the brink this month and last, not a genuine demand that gas and oil be public (as 92% voted for last July).

Fairy tales make great bedtime stories for our children but they make for lousy economic policy and worse journalism.

PS: To all. No, as some have speculated, I did NOT leave Bolivia for safety reasons. If safety had been a concern I would not have left my family. I am in Europe for work.

60 Comments:

Blogger The Democracy Center said...

Here's The Economist Article:

MOB RULE, NOT PEOPLE POWER
Jun 16th 2005

Some dangerous fairy tales about what is going on in South America

A SEMBLANCE of normality has returned to Bolivia after a month of
protests and road blocks by miners, peasants and workers. They achieved
one of their objectives: 19 months after similar protests had toppled
the elected president, his ineffectual successor, Carlos Mesa,
resigned. Bolivia's Congress swore in as a caretaker Eduardo Rodriguez,
the head of the Supreme Court, who will probably hold an early general
election. The protest leaders also want to nationalise Bolivia's oil
and gas industry and convene a constituent assembly.

Much commentary has seen in these events a popular revolution by
downtrodden Andean Indians. The protesters are held to represent a
majority of Bolivians, while the government is that of a rapacious
white elite. The protestors are waging a righteous struggle against
"neo-liberal" reforms imposed by "Washington", the IMF and other
villains. The only beneficiaries of these reforms, which included the
privatisation of the oil and gas industry, are said to be predatory
multinationals. As in the best fairy tales, a happy ending is at hand.
The election will be won by Evo Morales, the utopian socialist who
leads the coca workers. Nationalisation of gas will end poverty and the
constituent assembly will rewrite the constitution to make Bolivia
racially inclusive. The bottom line, one pundit told the NEW YORK
TIMES, is that Latin America is in open rebellion against the economic
policies of the "Washington consensus". Others compared Bolivia's
upheavals to recent examples of people power from Ukraine to Kirgizstan.


Fiddlesticks. It is true that Bolivia's Andean Indians, who make up
some three-fifths of the population, have faced discrimination, that
wealthy "white" farmers benefited from dubious land grants by military
governments, and that the traditional ruling parties are discredited.
Because Bolivians have earned little from their mineral wealth, it is
easy to whip up opposition to foreign oil and gas companies. It is
true, too, that through Mr Morales's party and another left-wing
movement, indigenous Bolivians have for the first time been elected to
Congress in significant numbers. But the events of the past month are
far from having been a democratic rebellion.

Geography has allowed a few tens of thousands of protesters to hold an
entire country to ransom, starving hospitals of food and fuel (see
article[1]). La Paz, the capital, is located in a ravine thousands of
metres above sea level. Its communications with the rest of the country
pass through El Alto, a slum city of 600,000 and the protesters'
stronghold. Many in El Alto disagreed with the protests. But those who
fail to turn out are fined or threatened, and many of those who do are
paid.

Where does the money come from? Venezuela's populist president, Hugo
Chavez, of whom Mr Morales is a disciple? Perhaps, though there is no
proof. The drug trade? Maybe. European NGOs? Probably, in some cases.
Their well-meaning donors would be horrified if they knew their money
was helping to establish an ultra-left dictatorship in Bolivia. For the
radicals who have El Alto in their grip, Mr Morales and the European
NGOs are "useful idiots", in Lenin's phrase.

The poorest have suffered most from the blockades, and would suffer
again from nationalisation. Inefficient state oil and mining companies
stoked the hyperinflation of the early 1980s. Only since privatisation
has Bolivia discovered enormous gas reserves. Exploiting these and
taxing their foreign operators is the best way for Bolivia to leave
poverty behind.

LET THE REAL PEOPLE SPEAK
The election may restore some sense. All the signs are that it is not
Mr Morales, still less those to his left, who speak for the majority.
Most Bolivians, fed up with the blockades, are likely to support
moderate figures. The new government should uphold the law and keep the
roads open. As for that continental rebellion against the Washington
consensus, it is largely confined to Venezuela, where high oil prices
have let Mr Chavez defy the laws of economics. Elsewhere, Latin
America's poor are too busy trying to earn a living to indulge such
fantasies.

-----
http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_ID=4088813

7:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the article, is very informed of what is going on in Bolivia. You can't seriously argue that marching peasants are aware of the consequences of nationalization of energetic reosurces.
I think this article, while not hitting the bullseye, is closer to reality than the post discrediting it.

8:57 AM  
Anonymous Daniel B. said...

Why is it that anytime someone disagrees with you, you have to attack him/her? A fairytale, is it? The sad thing is you really think that.

I have been reading your blog for a while now. I have to say you are not an objective writer in the sense the economist writer is not objective: You both look at the situation thru the prism of what your personal opinnion is, and write accordingly, to persuade other people.

I remember reading a post where somebody asked you if you were to go back to the USA if Morales was elected president. You did not answer the question, but replied in an aggressive way, just blowing the steam all over the place. I think an answer would be interesting.

And as for you being a pundit giving that comment to the NYTimes, well, you did. And you said that. The Economist guy is not saying you are wrong, just paraphrasing you. Why are you so mad? We all know it was Mob rule, not people power. We also know the poor suffered more. So why is it exactly a fairy tale?

You, sir, are a left-leaning arrogant.

9:40 AM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

The Economist article certainly seems a bit bombastic... but I'd also agree that it's at least as on target as Jim's analysis.

BTW, I've heard that the oft cited case of Cochabamba water is, by now, a relative disaster of corruption, mismanagement, and high water prices. Not having ever lived in Cochabamba, can anyone tell me (without political diatribe) if the "nationalization" of Cochabamba's water has been a success?

10:12 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"You can't seriously argue that marching peasants are aware of the consequences of nationalization of energetic reosurces."

You can't seriously argue that the only people who understand what the nationalization of energy resources means are college educated economists? One of the things that always suprised me growing up was the arrogance and superiority complex of those who are more well off than the masses. I eventually earned a full scholarship to go to school with many of these individuals and let me tell you a little secret, they're not really that smart (at least not the ones I saw going to our best colleges: harvard, yale, mit; they just had more money and better connections)! In fact, I would argue that most of these people fighting for nationalization are just as smart, if not smarter, than the world bank/imf corporatacracy that is trying to enslave them, they were just born into circumstances that have put them at a serious disadvantate relative to their more prosperous neighbors.

The wording of your statement denotes a privelged childhood of somehow who does not understand the dark realities faced by many of these individuals you call "peasants", and does not acknowledge the intellectual capacity of these individuals. If anything, your statement denotes a racist attitude, which is exactly the type of people these workers are fighting against.

In the end, I belive the Bolivian gov't, as well as the rest of the world, will learn that the true power is with the people! Not the privileged few.

"You, sir, are a left-leaning arrogant." The writer must be another member of the group that Howard Dean recently singled out!

These writers/economists are part of the corporatacracy which by definition means they must write favorably about what is in the corporatacracies best interest, that does not mean they are right, they are just good at distorting the real issues.

10:39 AM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

While there is great danger in assuming the ignorance of any group of people, there is also great danger in idealizing "the people" and assuming a passing knowledge of a topic constitutes "understanding".

I certainly don't know as much as a altiplano farmer about farming, or the intricacies of his life, etc. That doesn't make me smart or stupid - just inexperienced in his area of expertise.

I recently finished up my first year of graduate school in public affairs - a large segment of which was relativley complex economics. I'm 34, have travelled to many places, already have an undergraduate degree (in Anthropology) have studied economics in the past, and have lived in Bolivia for about a decade. I read a lot and spend quite a lot of time thinking about these issues. I've also worked in microfinance.

I can honestly say that I "sort of" get the broad stroke economics behind the issues here. In many ways I defer to other experts because I've studied enough and learned enough to understand the true depth of my ignorance about economics. (Not that I can't participate in the debate and have something constructive to say.)

Why in the world should I expect a campesino in Bolivia who has likely had very little schooling, if any, to understand the intricacies of international natural resource economics? Or balance of payments issues?

Not because he can't, but for the same reason that I don't know much about potato farming - it's simply not where I've put my time and energies. I'm sure any campesino in Bolivia is as able to learn macroeconomics as any Havard school preppie. The point is - he hasn't.

IF your impression of a campesino is that they are grunting cavemen with no understanding of the world (which is really at the heart of much of the - "you'll be surprised to see how much they know" comments) , then yes, you'll be surprised - they aren't grunting cavemen. Sure they know about nationalization, or about the very broadstrokes of natural resource exploitation, or world politics.

I remember going out into the distant reaches of southern bolivia, accessible only by hours on a four-wheel drive jeep, an hour walking, and crossing a river by boat only to have a Guarani dressed in traditional garb ask me if the woman on the cover of the magazine I was reading was Monica Lewinski.

People know stuff. They listen to shortwave radio. They talk to each other. Depending on where they live, they watch TV or ocassionally have a family member who's gone to college.

No, these people are not grunting cavemen. They are complex, intelligent, thoughtful people, just like anyone else.

But they are also largely uneducated and their understanding of complex economic issues is the same as it is (probably) for the majority of US Citizens or Europeans or anyone else - a passing knowledge based more on popular reports, popular politics, and intuition than on a real understanding of the mechanics of economics.

That's not racist, that's just facts.

And it does call into question whether or not they understand the implications of what they're asking for.

(BTW "Just as smart, if not smarter"? - First of all, it's not about smarts, but about education. Secondly, why "smarter"??)

11:29 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Andrew, I have worked with and known so-called “uneducated campesinos” for over 17 years. True, many of them can not spout memorized economic theory. However whether it is an old VCR or socioeconomics, they do know when something does not work and 9.9 times out of 10 they know how best solve the problem so it will work for them. Those of us who can not see this are a big part of problem. Many of us are so boxed in by our need to validate our 4-10 years or more of university education that we are unable or unwilling to even consider that others with no or little education could have the solution. Of course, the other part of the problem are those in the corporate world who do understand that the solutions offered by the campesinos are not in their short term financial interests. It is too bad that they refuse to understand that their long term sustainability requires them to think beyond the next quarter or their next fiscal year. If they actually did this, they might be able to learn from and work with the campesinos or the unionized factory workers. Another world is possible.
JAG

1:00 PM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

I too have worked with campesinos many years, so I'm not talking off the top of my head.

Personally, I have no need to validate my education.

However, I do recognize how important what I've learned is to my understanding of the world. When I learned clearly for the first time exactly how price regulates supply, demand, quality, etc. in a free market system, it was a revelation. Contrary to what you're saying, getting a college education is not just about conforming to the system, spouting memorized theories, or similar BS.

Economist as people who only "sput memorized economic theory"? That type of comment is just as dismissive (and to my mind ignorant) as anything that has been said about campesinos.

Sure, campesinos are pretty handy at solving problems and fixing VCRs but I'd be pretty surprised if their "out of the box" ingenuity and creativity extends to, say, open heart surgery or national fiscal management.

Again, I'm not denigrating anyone. I'm just saying that my experience is that people who've spent 4 or 10 years or whatever in detailed study of a topic tend to understand it better than those of us who have not. Medicine, economics, altiplano agriculture, or basket weaving are discplines that grow with knowledge and experience.

So unless you're proposing that bolivian campesinos are some sort of uber-human who can intuitively understand the intricacies of international development, poverty, and natural resource management then I think my analysis is on target.

Another world is possible - but not by deifying (or ignoring) campesinos nor by dismissing the collective knowledge and wisdom of the worlds economists as "spouting memorized economic theory".

Many economists, by the way, are as dedicated to a better and more just world as you or I are.

1:43 PM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

Just one last clarification - I'm not saying campesinos might not have creative ideas or potential solutions. I'm not saying that their thoughts, ideas, and creativity should be ignored.

1:51 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

, Some dangerous fairy tales about what is going on in South America

....

The protest leaders also want to nationalise Bolivia's oil
and gas industry and convene a constituent assembly.

Much commentary has seen in these events a popular revolution by
downtrodden Andean Indians. The protesters are held to represent a
majority of Bolivians, while the government is that of a rapacious
white elite. The protestors are waging a righteous struggle against
"neo-liberal" reforms imposed by "Washington", the IMF and other
villains. The only beneficiaries of these reforms, which included the privatisation of the oil and gas industry, are said to be predatory multinationals. As in the best fairy tales, a happy ending is at hand.
The election will be won by Evo Morales, the utopian socialist who
leads the coca workers. Nationalisation of gas will end poverty and the constituent assembly will rewrite the constitution to make Bolivia
racially inclusive. The bottom line, one pundit told the NEW YORK
TIMES, is that Latin America is in open rebellion against the TIMES, is that Latin America is in open rebellion against the economic
policies of the "Washington consensus".economic




You know what? That Economist piece is spot-on about the simplistic tale of Bolivia's crisis, that Jim has been spinning on his blog. It reads well, and makes for a snappy quote to the point the New York Times will pick up. But in the end it is misinformation and propaganda, without the ,agitprop verbiage.


The worst part is that Jim himself has talked about the 'activist-education' work done by Gringo/European NGO-types, with the marginalized sectors in Boivia.

Bolivia due to its isolation, had little contact with the United States, and there was little Anti-Americanism as seen in places like Panama or Nicaragua where memories of occupation and intervention were fresh. Ironically, it has been NGO types -many of them Americans- who have been firing up anti-Americanism through their own materials and teachings, with all their anti-globalism and anti-American content.

2:40 PM  
Anonymous brian said...

"Mob Rule" is what The Economist nastily called the street demonstrations against the secretive WTO meetings in Seattle in 1999.

The magazine detests any act of democracy that exposes corporate rule. No surprise they have their knickers in a knot about the popular uprising in Bolivia.

4:02 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

If anyone wants to actually read a good article on Bolivia, that actually places the crisis in a proper historical context, and does so from what looks to be the thinking left, read this.

http://www.spiked-online.com/Printable/0000000CABEC.htm

5:40 PM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

Bravo Boli-nica! What a good article!

My only major issue with it is that it still portrays a "two-Bolivias" viewpoint, whereas I believe the reality is more multifaceted than that.

Other than that, spot-on.

6:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

All the Economist does, always, is perpetuate and validate their own imperial stereotypes by which all latin-american politicians are 'populists'. Amazing how these 'populists', like in Argentina, are rescuing their countries from the disaster of the free-market ideology the Economist loves so much, while the king of corruption and populism in Argentina, Carlos Menem, the sob who destroyed Argentina in only 10 years was a hero to their editors.

But you can expect that from the corrupt editors who first supported a criminal invasion of Iraq to now play dumb as in 'it is all rumsfeld fault'.

7:35 PM  
Anonymous Alvaro RN said...

The Economist article is, in my view, a bit propagandistic. But we should all like it, at least if we visit Jim Shultz' blog regularly -it is nothing but a biased account of things anyway.

What bothers me is that anyone speaking his/her mind freely in this board is suddenly a privileged and racist elite member.

Andrew T and Daniel B. are right. The poor are as smart as anybody else, that is true. But it can't be denied that they are possibly not aware of the consequences of nationalization, because of the low schooling (which was probably very poor in quality) they received. Nobody is saying they are all idiots because they are poor. We are saying they have not been trained in these issues, so they understanding of things is basic, as that of most untrained people everywhere else. (And you can't really compare fixing a VCR with designing policies to develop a whole country. If something doesn't work in your famous vcr, you just try something else. If something screws up a country, it may take generations to repair the damage. And by the way, I remember fixing my old betamax vcr when I was 10, without having to study engineering, so it really is not that difficult).

Also, nationalization is just a facade for Evo Morales et al. to keep on dividing the people of Bolivia into bad, rich mofos and poor, inocent indigenous. In the end, all he wants to do is get elected president and have unconstrained power.

Finally, if Jim can spread all the propaganda he wishes and you guys don't say anything, why can't the economist? Why do you get so angry? To be honest, your attitudes remind me of the hippy stereotype in South Park. That's right - you are becoming caricatures. You are quick to pick corporations for everything everybody says that doesn't agree with your view. You guys don't reason or argue or propose solutions. You are just quick to blame corporations, elites, Washington and all agencies for everything wrong in this world. Funny, but I bet you guys are driving cars (guess who makes them?), drinking foreign beer/wine (how did they get there?) and wearing designer clothes (made by children in sweatshops). Oh! And none of you lives in Bolivia.

Sorry, but I just got tired of reading the same opinion with different wording each and everytime someone tries to give a rational, non-biased account of things.

Great job, Andrew T. Once again: Please, do start your own blog.
Boli-Nica: Nice article. Keep on blogging.
Jim: Time to wake up & stop dreaming.

4:24 AM  
Blogger xtfer said...

Lets face a basic fact here:

Bolivia is a mess!

This has been clearly illustrated by Jim over the past few weeks. For the most part, Jim seems to have reported what he can from the middle of a shitfight - an admirable task.

The Economist article makes a number of rather silly assertions, the biggest being the suggestion the NGO's are inadvertantly funding the formation of a left-wing dicatorship in Bolivia. It provides no evidence for this claim, merely insuating that the whole show is orchestrated by ultra-left radical in El Alto.

I challenge any of the posters here to back that claim up with evidence. Otherwise the Economist has told you a fairy story. While its final conclusion is fair - the problem is poverty - the rest of it is fiddlesticks.

(And as for the rest of you: Quit the bickering, children!)

5:07 AM  
Anonymous RockyRaccoon said...

Evo Morales is the worst that can happen. Except of course, for corporations, they are so bad, the corporations, because they are very corporationy, sitting there in their corporation building doing corporation stuff. Hahahaha, I love South Park. Great post, Alvaro. The guys here ARE walking stereotypes! LOL.

5:26 AM  
Anonymous Daniel B. said...

Jim doing an admirable task, because he sits with his laptop (made by corporations) in the middle of a march and spreads the communist gospel? Don't think so. He is just another of those guys learning his history from Eduardo Galeano and having it all wrong.

As for the proof of NGOs financing protests, again, it is extremely likely, but hard to prove. Not because it is not true, but because they are smart enough to conceal their acts. You don't think they have an entry in their accounting books reading "Morales bribes", do you? That does not make it false. I have read similar claims in La Razon and La Prensa.

And xtfer, yes, you do not live in Bolivia. I wouldn't be surprised if you learnt everything you know from this blog. In which case you have things wrong.

5:40 AM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

Thanks once again for the kind words Alvaro. I actually do have my own blog, but it's not about Bolivia or development. I just don't know that I have the time to really keep it up... When I get fired up about an issue, then the words start flowing!! Also, I'm not in Bolivia now (came back to the US a couple of years ago) so I'm sort of out of the loop on the "on the ground" details of things.

With regards to the NGOs financing leftist revolutions thing... I didn't take it quite that literally.

I worked for a "grass roots" NGO (basically all Bolivian staff, very small) and we got most of our funding from Europe and a bit from the US.

Much of it was very non-partisan, but there was definitely a political leaning to the organization (pretty leftist, though not radically so) and to the the organizations that financed us.

I would say it was more like the "clubby" atmosphere at a college campus where similar ideas bounce back and forth and mutually support each other. If I'm sort of lefty, and the guy who finances me is sort of lefty and we agree that this sort of lefty union is really an important part of what Bolivia is doing then we support it, etc. That all feeds into it.

Sort of like Jim! I don't think by ANY stretch that Jim is "financing" a leftist revolution in Bolivia. That said, his comments and political viewpoints - and likely his activities in Bolivia - do feed into a certain view of the world. (BTW Jim, I appreciate the effort you put into this forum and into Bolivia. I may not agree with you much of the time, but it gives us a place to talk. I appreciate that you are trying to do the right thing and that you care about Bolivia - a place I love more than you know and that is all wound up in marrow forever).

I met many Americans and Europeans who were only too happy to go into great detail about how much capitalism sucks, how America rules the world, the IMF is corrupt, etc. All of that (good or bad, right or wrong) does feed into a certain dynamic.

That's what I think the Economist meant - not so much actually financing as contributing to the overall process of energizing a certain political segment.

As an example, I once did an anthropological study of gender relations in Guarani communities for the FAO (a subcontract through our NGO). My conclusion was that the communities I was in were very traditional but also surprisingly open to female participation and that in reality gender roles and power were pretty well balanced out (some funny stories and examples, if anyone wants to hear them, let me know...) Well, I presented this to the FAO representative and she basically said, "take this back and redo this because it's wrong. Women are oppressed in these communities." This from a woman who'd never been there.

If she'd said that she disagreed with my methodology, or interpreted the same evidence differently, we'd have had an interesting discussion about gender relations. She didn't do that. She said, "your evidence conflicts with my worldview and politics. My worldview and politics wins."

That was a particularly blatant example, but enough of that type of stuff going on, and it creates a definite "atmosphere" in the NGO world.

BTW NGOs in Bolivia are a BIG topic for discussion!

12:34 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Evo Morales currently serves a purpose, he teaches the “downtrodden” campesinos that they deserve to make their voices heard and demand that the government make decisions that will benefit them. However, his purpose ends there, with mobilizing the people. Currently he is simply hurting the country by paralyzing all transit. There are too many consequences to the road blockades to list here. My view is that if Evo Morales comes into power he will essentially destroy the country. His idea is to drive all foreign aid out of the country, but in reality as Mesa pointed out in his first resignation speech, the country cannot survive without foreign aid. Foreign aid pays for food for pregnant mothers and their infants, it pays the wages for doctors, teachers and bus drivers, it pays for water systems, and it pays for vaccinations. The country would literally collapse without foreign aid.

I would like to address the discussion about whether or not campesinos can effectively evaluate their economic situation and select the correct solution. Recently an article in the Correo discussed the effects of illiteracy on the ability to think analytically. The author of the article came to the conclusion that people who are illiterate can not think analytically but continued on to say that the semi literate population is the most dangerous of all because these people only half understand what they read and that leads to the distribution of poor information. The semi literate population tends to be the leaders of their communities and therefore have control over the ideas of the people in their communities.

To respond to the many comments about whether or not someone with a PhD from MIT knows more about economics than someone with a second grade education from a rural school in Bolivia. I’d have to say that is a definite yes. If someone cannot read a newspaper or even understand the news, how are they going to make an educated decision? Not to say that this is makes them bad people or lesser people, they can build houses out of mud better than any MIT educated scholar.

As a general cultural trait I have found that Bolivians lack the ability to plan ahead. I have spent the last year trying to teach them how to think about the future. The idea is to pay 40 cents a month so that ten years from now they won’t have to rely on foreign aid to build them a new water system. In the end they just won’t do it because the very concept of PLANNING for the future is something that they have no concept about. (Not to mention the ingrained dependency on outside aid)

My final point looks at the intentions of the people who are in the streets. On the TV they show people beating other people who are not participating in the march. Is the person that joins the march to avoid being lynched representing their opinions? Out in the campo people are fined if they do not go to blockade the roads. Is this person representing their opinions? Recently a few of my friends drove up the road a few hours to join the party…that is represented in the news as a road block supporting Evo Morales.

In the end campesinos do not have access to enough education and information to make logical, informed decisions about the current economic situation of their country.

EMS

3:02 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

The Economist article makes a number of rather silly assertions, the biggest being the suggestion the NGO's are inadvertantly funding the formation of a left-wing dicatorship in Bolivia. It provides no evidence for this claim, merely insuating that the whole show is orchestrated by ultra-left radical in El Alto.

I challenge any of the posters here to back that claim up with evidence. Otherwise the Economist has told you a fairy story. While its final conclusion is fair - the problem is poverty - the rest of it is fiddlesticks.


I can't find the link-back to an article written by JS himself, where he boasts about the 'education' done by 'volunteers' (which probably includes many NGO types)in the 'bases'. They were doing what the Sandinistas called 'concientizacion' or running classes for local activists in rhetoric and tactics all paid for by certain NGO's operating in-country. Bolivian's don't need any help in how to organize and raise political hell. However this anti-American, anti-globalization, anti-free market language comes straight out of the Post-Marxian, Lemming playbook, and was alien to Bolivia, particularly since the local press (a steady source of 'au-courant' rhetoric in Bolivian history)didn't pick up the rhetoric.

3:12 PM  
Anonymous Paul V said...

Jim Shultz seemed to have written a poignant and well well-written response to me. "The Economist has a simple explanation about why tens of thousands of Indians, miners, workers, students and others chased down their government leaders to demand recuperation of the nation’s oil and gas – outside funding." It does sound pretty preposterous.

The most amazing thing about the Economist article is what it admits:
• Andean Indians face discrimination,
• wealthy farmers benefited from dubious land grants,
• traditional ruling parties have been discredited,
• Bolivians have earned little from their mineral wealth.

If the traditional ruling parties have been discredited, that leaves only the cocaleros and the campesinos. Who is supposed to run the country?

Many in El Alto may have disagreed with the protests, but it might be because they want water, food, fuel, and some kind of living; not necessarily that they are against nationalization or a constituent assembly. And the Economist unfairly tries to paint the protest with a most wicked brush, claiming the protesters are starving the hospitals of food and fuel.

Shultz blames the hyperinflation on the collapse of global tin market and years of dictatorships. The Economist is afraid European NGOs are helping to establish an ultra-left dictatorship in Bolivia. Is the ultra-left in Bolivia seeking a dictatorship? This is an important question. Would Shultz be in favor of such a dictatorship? This is not so important a question, but it would be interesting to know. Just how are Andean Indians planning to exclude the current political elite from Bolivia’s future?

But the Economist has it wrong. It is not European NGOs, but North American NGO activists that are the problem. A month ago I read in disbelief that the local community around Peru’s Tintaya copper mine wanted to increase previously agreed-to local payments from $1.5 million a year to $20 million. But it is difficult to feel sorry for BHP Billiton when they now complain of losing $1 million a day due to the work stoppage.

You have to wonder about the group thinking of the business community, if "Business Day: News Worth Knowing" has a firm handle on it. "Clearly the present situation is at a tipping point. The attacks on major mines in recent months are unacceptable, and will create an untenable situation for the resource sector if they continue unabated." That part seems reasonable and understandable. "One has to wonder about the motivation of these agitators - are they Luddites, in the pay of partisan politicians, or simply puppets of the NGOs and the church?" Whoa. Are they really that out of touch?

5:34 PM  
Anonymous Matt said...

I'm glad that a previous poster pointed out that The Economist always poo-poos anyone, or any group, or any mass assembly, of people who disagree with the Washington Consensus.

It seems that some posters here are arbitrarily dismissing Jim's posting because they think it's just another example of "lefty-commie-idealist-romanticist-pipedream-whatever"
dogma. I challenge those people to substantiate their claims about the protest movements. Look at the Democracy Center's report on the September-October 2003 deaths. Jim does not just state that the IMF was largely responsible for the deaths because the IMF is an easy target and "lefties love to blame capitalism for everything." His conclusion that the IMF was responsible is grounded in solid investigatize reporting, not dogma. I see no reason to believe that his reporting of, and conlusions regarding, the recent upheavel in Bolivia are not equally well grounded. Reading between the lines of a few of Bolivia's major newspapers (with different biases) seems to confirm this.

10:13 PM  
Blogger Sean said...

The fatal flaw with many of the critical commentators on here who complain about how the Bolivians simply "aren't educated" in economics, is that they are implicitly suggesting that only the ones who ARE "educated" enough should be the ones to decide. In practice, that the politics and economics of any country should not actually be governed by the people in it (who may or may not be "educated" on any number of issues) but by a Priestly class of educated number crunchers and policy wonks. While this may be good for business (which are often times run by the fellow classmates of the Priestly classes), it is distinctly not good for anyone who values any semblance of participatory government.

Moreover, some of them must have consistently missed Jim's posts that pointed out that it wasn't just "uneducated" campesinos on the street promoting nationalization, but that a number of economists and others who fit the definition of "educated" are arguing much the same. Then again, I am sure these people are leftist, NGO funded, commie loving trots who are out to destroy the world economic order and establish a dictatorship of the indigenous.

I don't have any delusions of the various "indigenous" leaders (the New Boss, same as the Old Boss) but I'm not reactionary enough or blind to think the Old Boss' have any bloody comprehension of what their doing either. And I'm not going to pull a logical fast one like some of the commenters on here and wank off about how the indigenous groups are making the poor suffer (and what, exactly, have the elite and the various resource exploiters been doing? serving in soup kitchens?) and are examples of some horrible "mob rule" (as opposed to oligarchal control?). I know the movements aren't all saints, and not all the elite/world development crews are sinners, but to suggest that the past couple weeks of craziness are so egregiously horrible that they somehow make the movements worse than the corrupt, petty, and moronic elites who have governed the country for God knows how long, takes the sort of blind spot only possible when you have a log jammed in one of your eyes. If they're both horrible, then say so, but don't jizz on about the one and leave the other one looking clean as a whistle. Be friggan consistent.

3:44 AM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

I can't speak for others, but you're reading things into what I'm saying.

I never expressed support for the "elite". I never said economist have all the answsers or that they've gotten it all right so far. (Though I think blaming economists or the IMF for Bolivias economic chaos is avoiding the real problems - which have a lot more to do with internal corruption, mismanagement, etc. than economic policy.)

I've consistently, over and over again, said that the major problem with this whole debate is a ridiculous oversimplification of the issues turning into a characiture of the evil overlords against the virtuous.

Your characterization of "the elite" and "the economists" as being one and the same again represents this view of two Bolivias, each of them unanimous in their view.

I disagree with that whole characterization - including the concept that the elite are the ones who are corrupt (they are, but in my experience, corruption and mismanagement in Bolivia is one of the few areas of equal opportunity employment, top to bottom)

As for education, I never said all economists are in agreement nor that the indigenous opinion should be ignored. I simply said, and still maintain, that I don't think most of the protesters have a clear idea of the ramifications of their position.

And again, what does this have to do with democracy? I have over and over and over criticized the protestors for endangering democracy. That's my main problem with them.

If Evo had been elected president and he and the congress passed a nationalization law, I'd think they were barking mad, but I'd support their right to do so and be howling at any "elite" who tried to stop them.

You're not only asusming that all the economist support the "elite", you're also assuming (as everyone seems to, which drives me nuts) that if an indigenous group says something, then that's equivelent to democracy.

Recognizing that the protestors are not cognizant of the economic ramifications of what they're asking for is not anti-democratic nor is it pro-elite.

It's just an expresion of the facts, as I interpret them.

As for being an equal opportunity basher, as you suggest - what does that get me?

My position, VERY generally, is that free market policies are right (though perhaps poorly implimented and in need of moderation) and that Evo's politics are wrong.

If I'm asked to "take sides" I will side with free market economists more than with Evo and the nationalists.

Is there a better way? Probably.

Should the indigenous population be part of finding that better way? Absolutely.

Are economists always right (or always in agreement)? Of course not.

Does this make the indgenous population wiser about economics than economists? Absolutely not.

Does it justify the protestors way of strongarming their demands rather than respecting democratic process? Absolutely not.

10:38 AM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

One last clarification - if the majority (or even in interesting minority) of solid economists line up behind nationalization, I'll certainly be willing to revise my thoughts.

I might be wrong, but I don't think that's the case.

10:42 AM  
Anonymous Thor Kummer said...

The western middle class is thoroughly trained to see the status quo of formal democracy and supposedly free markets as the best of all possible worlds. If you want social change you just vote for it and if you want better living conditions you just compete in the free market.

How can the poor in Venusuela and elsewhere be blamed for assuming that the system is rigged? Should they believe that the dollar a day they live on signifies their score on a level playing field? And that the billionaries that represent foreign interests are that many times more competent and valuable to society. Or should they assume that the elite is beeing payed off to keep them down while foreigners run off with the country's resources?

4:13 PM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

This post has been removed by a blog administrator.

4:54 PM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

Either a market is free or it isn't. If a billionare is using the system to keep a Venezuelan down, then he's not a free marketer.

French and American agriculture is not free market. Microsoft is abusive in the free market. Just because a company or individual operates within a free market doesn't make him a free marketer.

That logic is sort of like the people who say repression is better than political freedom because there is less crime. They are confusing the system with bad actors within the system. Sure, there are likely more rapists in the UK than, say, in Saddam's Iraq (not including government officials, of course). That doesn't mean that Saddam's Iraq is a better system.

Just because some people abuse a system does not mean the system itself is corrupt. It just means you need to work on having better policing (which I'm fully in favor of, from an economic standpoint)

As for being "trianed" - I learned to love free markets after living in Bolivia for 10 years. Calling middle class Europeans and Americans mental slugs is fun and easy, but it doesn't make it true.

And I don't blame a poor Venezuealan for thinking the system is rigged. That doesn't mean he's right. Or that if he is right the "rig" is capitalism or free markets (rather than abusers within the system).

4:56 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The "free market" ideology is a sham. Like Christianity before it, it is preached to the poor but not practiced by the rich. If there were no monopolies and barriers to entry, the market would efficiently allocate resources just as if everyone practiced humility and other Christan virtues the world would be a peacefull place. Neither of these premises is valid. The rich have never practiced Christianty and they have never accepted free markets if they stood to lose from it. All this is obvious to anyone who hasn't been indoctrinated not to see it, e.g. by formal university training in theology or economics.

3:12 AM  
Blogger Dan said...

I've also left this at the most recent post's thread:

Just as I linked to the Economist article early on in a comment thread (before Jim posted on it), I would now like to point folks in the direction of an interesting article in the new edition of The Nation: http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20050704&s=parenti

Throughout South America, center-left governments are taking power, with Uruguay and Ecuador being the latest to join the trend. Bolivia, home to some of the most well-organized and radical popular movements on the continent, could be next. But the challenges facing the Bolivian left are enormous: Despite all its strength, it is riven by ideological disputes, pervasive Quechua versus Aymara ethnic factionalism and the constant clash of leadership egos.

Enjoy. Let the hair-pulling begin...

4:13 AM  
Blogger roger said...

The Bolivian vcr repairman might not have good arguments for nationalization. But that doesn't mean there aren't any. Those on this comment log that agree with the Economist need to explain why nationalization of a type, which has worked pretty well with the Gulf states, wouldn't work for Bolivia. Kuwait, for instance, which definitely took the route of nationalizing, then making leases on their fields flexible enough to capture more when petroleum prices inflated. They have consistently stuck with the original nationalisation of the oil fields to become one of the middle income nations, with an income level about sixteen times Bolivia's. Kuwait did not have any hidden institutional knowledge which gave it an advantage, either. Neither did Libya or Saudi Arabia.

It is true -- nationalization as a symbolic act, rather than as a rational economic plan, is not something a poor country can or should consider. There are also the usual rent-seeking problems that go along with state corporate structures, even if the real structures are filled up with private tenant extraction companies. But it seems to me that in a climate of rising prices, and the potential competition offered by Chinese companies to the usual mix of European and American companies (which can be used as leverage to overcome baulking by the majors) the best deal Bolivia can get will turn on some degree of nationalisation. I think disguising that degree as a high percentage tax has disadvantages, insofar as Bolivia gives up any control over the supply that way. On the other hand, it might mitigate the rent-seeking problem.

The shame of this is: It is actually a good thing Bolivia is in this position. Although we all know that primary product exporters create vulnerable economies (did anybody say tin), the difference is that it is unlikely, in the near future, that substitutes are going to be found for petroleum or natural gas. And it is an essential product.

If, in fact, Bolivia does follow a Kuwaiti model, investing a portion of its surplus in foreign capital markets, it can insure the political cooperation of powers otherwise hostile to nationalization, like the States, and create a cushion for the inevitable price volatility of the natural gas market.

12:51 AM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

What drives me nuts about this whole argument, is how much faith is placed in 'state' control of the economy, without saying as much. "Nationalization" necesarilly involves state control of central resources. State controls means a few decisionmakers, substituting for market signals, and also carrying out every other administrative function necessary to a large organisation.

This was done and tried, IT DOES NOT WORK.


Trust me people, for years I have been privy to discussions 'in country' involving UN development experts', economists, MBA's, Eastern block appartchiks, et al. The key thing was how to make government enterprises more productive. Going back to the late 70's, everyone wanted the kind of efficiency and profits that capitalist run enterprises. Every variation from worker run coops, to decentralized decisionmaking, eliminating central goals was tried and failed.

2:06 PM  
Blogger roger said...

Boli-Nica, I have to disagree. State enterprises works sometimes and fail sometimes, like other enterprises, relative to the development time line. Your metric -- efficiency -- is skewed to profit. In the case of a primary product export, however, it is a pretty meaningless metric. State institutions, here, would obviously not do the extractive or distributive work themselves, but lease those operations. As I say, the Gulf states are wonderful examples of how the surplus from petroleum and natural gas can be allocated by a state entity that captures the potential value of the resource by nationalisation.

This doesn't exclude, at some future point, privatization. But I don't think Bolivia is near that point.

As for your general lessons from the Eastern bloc -- you are comparing apples and oranges. Nationalizing a natural resource is not the same as the systematic nationalization of all economic functions. Your argument is from a very faulty analogy.

Myself, I'd compare the growth in the first wave of development, going to 1970, with its emphasis on the state sector and ISI, with any period afterwards -- the neo-liberal paradigm has simply failed, since it fails to make elementary sectorial distinctions.

State control is very compatible with private enterprise, depending on how it is set up. The U.S. economy, which is the example of a modern capitalist economy, has extremely large public-private enterprises -- and in fact the reason the U.S. has not fallen into a deeper recession over the last four years is that the state has encouraged mortgages, a trend since the postwar period instituted in Fannie Mae, a public/private concern.

By the way, the limit of private control over natural resources in the U.S. is shown by today's story about a company from China wanting to buy the fifth largest petroleum company in the U.S., Unocal. Guess what capitalist Americans are doing? They are planning on hearings in Congress about it. Apparently they don't like potentially hostile foreign entities owning U.S. Petroleum companies. Shades of Evo.

3:20 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

Roger,

My beef with 'nationalization' comes mainly from what is proposed by the extremists, namely re-creating Yacimientos and taking over operation of the fields again.

On a practical level this implies feuding with corporations and governments such as Spain and Brazil.

On an operational level, it involves at great expense setting up a new government ministry from scratch, and then having it run the gas and oil fields.

The point of Bolivia's current (for now) oil and gas regime, was to involve foreign companies -bringing in needed capital- in exploration and production. Cutting YPFB out of the operations saved the country money. And the companies by law set up joint ventures with Bolivian pension funds holding the other half.

Bolivia would get money from royalties (18%) and from the Value Added Tax, as well as a general corporate tax. So, in effect the ACTUAL revenue was higher than 18%.

I would argue this was more transparent than what happened before when the national oil company ran things, and corruption was rife.

6:17 PM  
Blogger roger said...

Boli-nica,
Those are much more sensible criticisms, I think, of nationalizing Bolivia's natural gas and petroleum resources.

a. Corruption. I think the chief advantage to taxing, instead of nationalizing, has to be that nationalization, given weak state structures, can lead to massive corruption. But I don't think this is an insurmountable objection. The corruption comes in two forms -- in the interaction of the tenants with the potential government institution, and then in the allocation of the surplus from the leases. Simple extraction, of course, is also subject to corruption -- there are notorious problems with weak states attempting to collect taxes from strong corporations. If nationalization is to be considered at all, there would have to be some firewall between the state institution and executive and legislative parts of the state.

2. The objection of cost is, I think, less major. This is an excellent time to create a state institution, if it could be done as per 1. An important part of creating a viable state oil company would be committing some percentage of its revenue to investment -- and not investment in the domestic economy, but investment in the international economy. This would do several things: it would signal that Bolivia wasn't going "red", which would assure the international markets and the Americans and Europeans; it would produce, in time, the kind of revenue that could buffer the inevitable fluctuations that are going to afflict the gas industry; and I think it would make Bolivia attractive to foreign investment. It isn't the case that foreign investors flock to a country heavily dependent on oil or gas export just because the industry is private. Stability is a pretty big factor in itself.
Now, I am not saying nationalization is necessary because it is the people's oil, etc., etc. I am saying that nationalization should be one of the options considered in getting a premium on a resource during a boom market, and one that looks good at least into the immediate future, given the new demand in China and India and Asia in general. If taxation is the best way of doing that, fine. But it does have the disadvantage of giving up control of the supply of the product. And that is a real disadvantage, as Bolivia has experienced before with the tin market.

7:41 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

Roger, I understand what you are saying, in terms of 'renationalization' at this point. My problem springs specifically from what has happened in Bolivia's Oil and Gas Industry the past 20 years. I personally have nothing against Yacimientos running the show - they did a fairly decent job of it for a long time. Bolivia's main parties had very capable people who knew the industry - mainly from the Santa Cruz area- and they would take turns running the company at the top.
Jim Schultz blabs a lot about how the IMF 'imposed' the current oil and gas laws on Bolivia, which is a catchy phrase with little substance.

The truth is that Yacimientos Petroliferos De Bolivia, has been working for decades on doing this sort of thing. In the 80's they started doing things like selling off unprofitable gas stations they ran.
Their was a consensus among top managers, appointees and permanent workers alike, that the natural gas needed to be exploited - as well as the need for further exploration for oil. Only foreign capital could succesfully accomplish this, and they tried for years to find flexible enough rules to be succesfull.

While the oil did not really pan out, the natural gas did. It was Bolivians who pressed to get this done, and many people worked for years to interest foreign backers such as Petrobas, Repsol, and BP, and -gulp- Enron. A source told me they spent 9 years negotiating some of the gas deals. As a result almost 4 billion dollars in investment poured into the country, including exploration that found more gas, increasing Bolivia's proven reserves.

Ultimately the final version of the plan involved folding most of Yacimientos. But that is not necesarilly a bad thing, in one sense it eliminated a lot of patronage jobs, including those traditionally held by many of the oil and gas regulars. Admin costs went down, and by keeping ownership in the pension plans, a good amount of profits stayed in-country.

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Blogger Kusum Choppra said...

protests against the dictats of the world bank are a world wide phenomenon. and it has been seen that world bank officials, even when they go back totheir home countries, tend to think more for the Bank, than the good of the country's people. please note, i said the country's 'people', not it's politicians.
in india, we have had innumerable spats between the politics which are fronts for the world bank and those who are going tobe affected by the policies that the Bank dictates.
for, underneath all tht verbiage and statistics, the Bank's policies are usually aimed at filling overflowing bank accounts, rarely opening new ones for those who have never had one.
about the the reporting in the Economist, the less said the better. Table stories prepared comfortably at one's desk after speaking to a few comfortable and self declared intellectual souls is the bane of the media around the world.

5:42 AM  
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At best, it's a social science. It influences and creates it's own realities to an extent that no real science would accept. An economist at Harvard can come up with all the economic models in the world, but that doesn't mean that that is how the global 'economy' actually works.

Clssical economic theory (and neo-Classical, and liberal etc) are based on equilibrium (linear) dynamics. The world economy is a non-linear system. For the scientist this is a huge red X. Economists begin to realise this, but are reluctant to change their invalid assumptions (because they do not have the discipline of science).

The point is this: the models may be right or wrong, but the results on the ground are indisputable. The uneducated locals KNOW the results on the ground all too well. Economists' "reasoning" may not mean a damn thing, because the economist is not likely to take into account all the possible factors (such as corruption, or the weather) - but the intuition learnt and inherited by the locals, whose views are necessarily holistic because they dont "understand" the process, may be spot on.

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