Resignation or Martial Law?

A quick note, as things are changing too quickly and are too hard to predict to warrant an analysis much longer.

All day there have been comments coming out of the government that President Mesa will speak to the nation sometime tonight. The people I am speaking with who know the situation best say he’ll either announce one of two things – his resignation or a declaration of un estadio de sitio, effectively martial law. The latter would be a precursor to a military and police action to break up the protests, especially those in La Paz. This is, of course, the action that Carlos Mesa said he would never take.

If Mesa does resign the next question becomes who succeeds him. Absent other resignations that would be the Senate President, Baca Diez, a politician from Santa Cruz whose assumption to the Presidency would inflame the protests by double. If Baca Diez and the House President also resign (a possible combination deal with a Mesa resignation) then we are set on the path toward new elections in August.

If that happens, watch for the return of the US’ favorite son (and favorite Bolivian politician) Tuto Quiroga, the boyish former IBM executive who assumed the Presidency for a year in 2001 when his predecessor, Hugo Banzer resigned to his death bed. In a year in office Quiroga managed to kill more Bolivians than Banzer, the former dictator, did in four years as the elected President. Here an article I wrote at the time.

More news as we have it.