Thursday, June 09, 2005

Vaca Diez Relents

A short while ago the President of the Bolivian Senate, Hormando Vaca Diez, announced that he would not seek to assume the Presidency if the Congress, as expected, accepts President Carlos Mesa’s resignation.

For those who have not been following this story closely, Bolivia has been besieged by intense protests for the past 24 hours by miners, campesino organizations, labor groups, and hunger strikes by mayors and other public officials demanding that the Santa Cruz politician not take the Presidency. House leader Mario Cossio, next in the constitutional line of succession after Vaca Diez, had already declared his refusal of the Presidency.

As I write, the Bolivian Congress is meeting in late night session in Sucre where the likely outcome is the acceptance of Mesa’s resignation (which will no doubt make him elated to be leaving the toughest job on Earth) handing the Presidency to the President of the Supreme Court, Eduardo Rodriguez. This also triggers a constitutional requirement for new elections.

The leaders of the current protests are planning to continue their pressure on the government until two additional demands are met. The first is setting in motion the plan for convening a constituent assembly to rewrite the nation’s constitution. The second is a national referendum on re-nationalizing the country’s gas and oil reserves and a national vote on regional autonomy.

The good news is that Vaca Diez’s announcement moves the country away from an all out confrontation. However, the protest movements that began three weeks ago were never about a new President or new elections. They have been about gas and the Asamblea and those two issues are still a long way from being decided.

Good night to all after a very long and tense day here in Bolivia.

39 Comments:

Blogger Andrew T. said...

Well, we dodged a bullet for now. But as was mentioned in the post, we're really just kicking the ball down the field.

I mean, can you think of a potential president that would be more generally acceptable to more people that Carlos Mesa?

What leadership is out there right now? Jorge Quiroga, if he's smart, will stay a million miles away from this. Jaime is totally over the hill and tarnished beyond recognition. I'm not even sure who's running ADN these days. UCS - that's a joke. Manfred? God no. So all of the traditional parties are kind of kaput.

Evo? My lord, that would almost guarnatee that some sort of major civil struggle would errupt, if not among the "elites" of La Paz and Cochabamba, certainly in Tarija and Santa Cruz.

I just don't see how any future configuration is going to be any better from anyones standpoint than what we had 3 months ago.

And, as I've been bitching about all day, this is another huge blow to the democratic process. The protestors "won" which sends a signal - you don't like it, just go out and paralyze the country.

They've now taken down two consecutive governments. Any bets on them allowing another to come to power unless it plays by their rules, regardless of election outcomes?

And even if they win fair and square, I wonder what in the world awaits Bolivia with nationalized gas and Evo (or similar) at the helm - nothing good I would be willing to wager.

12:05 AM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

All that said, I can't say that I'm not thrilled at this point. At least I can go to bed relatively sure that Bolivia hasn't gone to war with itself before morning.

I guess we'll worry about ramifications later.

12:06 AM  
Blogger Mactyler said...

The question I have for Mr. Shultz is whether he sees any kind of workers' or peasants' councils in Bolivia (ie like the Russian soviets, or Argentina's popular assemblies)? To me this does not seem like a situation where a social revolution is on the agenda, but rather an extraordinarily intense bout of class struggle - this is especially true if the councils have not appeared on a mass level, ie in workplaces and neighborhoods as a potential separate organ of government from the current one.

Also, the Morales wing of the movement does not seem to have developed an agenda for wholesale social change, let alone socialist change. Their demands are still within the framework of the current bourgeois society, ie a new constituent assembly and a rewriting of the constitution. As I'm far from the scene, there may be a group pushing for the overthrow of the ruling class in Bolivia, but from the press I've seen there doesn't seem to be one pushing for that right now, ie it's not immediately on the agenda.

As per some of the commentary on the blog posts I've read, it's also laughable to assume there is some Platonic ideal of democracy that is being violated here by the protesters. Bolivia is a nation that has been dominated by foreign (lately US) interests, with (how) many dictators since 1964 that were propped up by the US - and who supported de-nationalizing industries and supporting American business interests in Bolivia?

We can argue all we want about respecting the "rule of law", but the rule of law is a fiction, and is ignored when the minority ruling elites in every nation decide they want to impose their will on a recalcitrant population (hence the brutal repression of the tin miners after the 1952 revolt, similar repression in Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, and Chile all throughout the mid-20th centuries). What the protesters are demanding is that the natural resources of Bolivia, which have been swallowed whole by multinational corporations for decades, be returned to some sort of control by the population. The exploitation of peripheral countries like Bolivia is nothing abnormal, but neither is the very democratic demand that the population have a say over where the oil wealth comes and goes, and not petroleum supergiants. Given the extraordinary power of the worldwide petroleum industry and the weakness/comprador nature of the Bolivian government in comparison, it seems only logical that an extraordinary movement would have to develop to engage the corporations and their representatives.

My only question, as I stated before, concerns these protests from the leading edge of the workers/peasants movement and whether they are going to move the confrontation to the next level, ie state power. There seems to have been some sympathy in sections of the army, but this has not surfaced openly (except for the few officers who released a statement and were purge) - and without at least a neutralized army it seems impossible to talk about a the movement ending in anything but a bloodbath. And, if there aren't alternative structures of power, then the movement may fizzle within the current structures (ie like Allende or the Sandinistas).
Mactyler

PS. The blog you run is essential for real coverage from Bolivia and I thank you for it.

1:49 AM  
Anonymous Bill said...

Not much to add, just a thanks for keeping us up to date on things. Up here in the US, it's very difficult to get any reporting on Bolivia, outside of wire stories.

Your work is much appreciated, Jim.

2:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

---"We can argue all we want about respecting the 'rule of law', but the rule of law is a fiction, and is ignored when the minority ruling elites in every nation decide they want to impose their will..."

I'd like to follow-up on that with a question to the "rule of law" folks:

What is the constitutional basis for the Santa Cruz elites' demands for autonomy?

According to the leftist
BBC's "regional analyst", James Painter, : "[Santa Cruz elites]... say they will go ahead with their own referendum on autonomy in August this year, with or without the approval of the national government."

I can only imagine the furious outrage that kind of threat must engender in those devoted to "the rule of law".

4:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good to have this coveradge. Most extensive coveradge has been done by Narconews, with open pro - social movement bias.

It was found out by DU activists and then reported by Narconews that there are US troops in Paraguay, positioned in the Bolivian border close to the oil-rich and secessionist province of Santa Cruz. (Does 2+2 make 4?)

In latest news thousands of Bolivian troops are being deployed in both La Paz and Santa Cruz.

7:09 AM  
Anonymous RCardenas said...

Kudos to Andrew T. Your comments are really insightful and most of the times better thought than the actual post you are commenting. You should start your own blog.

I am also a bit down on the results. I think is not the best that could have happened. Protestors now don't care about about any democratic process. They know there's an alternative way to get things done as they want them.

Now the only thing left is hoping everything turns out for the better:

I hope the autonomy referenda take place before a constituent assembly, that Evo Morales does not win the elections, ever, and racism against cambas and k'aras stops.

I also hope the politicians start doing something to alleviate poverty, without isolating Bolivia from the world. This is really the issue, isn't it?

One last thing, before ending my comment. In a preious post I saw some guy stating that the writer of this blog is an Morales supporter. While that may be a bit harsh, it is somewhat obvious the writer is left leaning. Now, just out of curiosity, Mr. Shultz: what is your personal opinion on Morales and co., Vaca Diez, Mesa and the protestors? Where they coerced into protesting, did they have the right to make the harmless La Paz citizens almost starve to death, should they respect the democratic process or keep on destroying it? Was Mesa right to let everybody have their way? Do you think Morales is the Answer?

Try to be straightforward, please.
Please be explicit. And obviously, you don't have to write a post on it, just a comment, like the one where you were, rather furiously, that you were NOT a Morales supporter. I would appreciate that very much.

Andrew T. : Why should Quiroga stay away from this? He is the only one capable of counterbalancing Morales, I think. Any other politician is a joke, and Morales, God forbid! So I see him as being the only viable choice. Are you thinking of Doria Medina?

7:47 AM  
Blogger poked fish said...

I add my thanks to Democracy Center and Jim Shultz for their job reporting the events.

Democracy is a process but the meaning of democracy is unclear when all parties pay lip service to it, but few practice it. The Stalinist had their democratic people's republics, and the neo-liberals have their majordomo pro-market democracy made for TV, where the ballot box is respected second only to private property.

I thjink in this era, humanity aspires to something better than either of those models, although no one has the blueprint.

Does anyone in Bolivia? Is there a saviour with a plan? Is that even the right question?

It seems right now that the Bolivian people (the indigenous majority in the forefront) are posing the fundamental political question of power, and that the demand for a constituent assembly represents the aspiration to find a new way beyond the bankrupt old system.

As a US citizen I can support the struggle for democracy in Bolivia by keeping a sharp eye on the US government, and any attempts by imperial interests to cut short the process of democratization in Bolivia.

9:44 AM  
Anonymous Logan Foster said...

In my opinion these actions by the protesters will force Santa Cruz,etc. to move forward with seccesion plans and possibly annexation by Brazil. There is no way they will accept the authority of these radical altiplano groups.

10:07 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Poked fish...
from:http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0609-32.htm
"In late May, in the nearby country of Paraguay, that nation’s Congress was convened in secret, after midnight, according to a May 31 report by the Argentine correspondent for the Mexican daily La Jornada. The reason: to rush through a law “that will permit United States troops to enter this South American country for 18 months, with immunity for all personnel that participate in activities of training and advising, including civilian personnel.”

Remember, kind readers, that under U.S. law, the number of North American troops who can be in nearby Colombia is limited to the hundreds: and they’re busy enough there already with a fifty-year civil war.

What Vaca Diez is attempting is nothing less than creating the justification for the U.S. military to invade his own country of Bolivia, perhaps to protect strategic oil supplies, perhaps to “strenthen democracy,” as Condoleezza Rice and George W. Bush harped about on Tuesday in Florida at the Organization of American States meeting, or perhaps in the name of the “war on drugs” and eradicating the humble coca leaf once and for all.

From the State Department to Sucre, they’ve all gone mad with power, and any bestiality is possible when Vaca Diez seizes control with his Doctrine of Authoritarian Government that seeks to blame tyranny on its victims.

As I type, the sun is rising over Bolivia, where the workers, the indigenous, the poor, are descending on Sucre and strengthening the blockades they maintain at 120 strategic points in the national roads and highways system, where they’ve now seized 13-percent of the oil and gas fields, where Authentic Journalists are reporting the news to us all at great personal risk.

Despite all the darkness being shadowed upon this land by the powerful foreign and domestic interests, here comes the Bolivian majority. With enough sunlight shined upon the coming days in Bolivia from every corner of the earth, there is nothing, absolutely nothing, certainly not Washington’s cow named Vaca Diez, that can stop them.

It is zero hour in Bolivia. "

As a US citizen also, I am against any action by our gov't to interfere in the affairs of Bolivia.

I am hoping that the poor of Bolivia are successful in their attempt to bring justice and equality to their country.

10:09 AM  
Anonymous Don D. Roose said...

Don from says,

Let's see now: for hundreds of years, the average campesino watched as their silver, tin, oil and now gas is raped from Bolivian hands for outside profit. It has come to light for all to see, that yet another secret politician/businessman deal was going to give foreign corporate owners 82% of all the profit from hundreds of millions of cubic feet of natural gas ...leaving a huge 18% piece of the pie for Bolivianos to squabble over ...and folks wonder why the overwhelming majority of Bolivianos are pissed????

And for heaven's sake, why are some of you blaming the messenger, namely the Democracy Center and Jim Schultz?

For Bolivia to own and decide the fate of their own natural resource: gas and for Bolivia to finally have an assembly of women and men who will govern over the masses and actually might even truly represent the masses and even come from them ....whether we like this or not, isn't this the decision for Bolivians to make?

10:12 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"In my opinion these actions by the protesters will force Santa Cruz,etc. to move forward with seccesion plans and possibly annexation by Brazil. There is no way they will accept the authority of these radical altiplano groups."

Why not have a seccession where the poor inheret the gas rich lands, and the rich get everything else? Those in power do not care about Bolivia or Democracy, all they care about is money, Greed. If they cared about Bolivia, they would try to work with the poor of their country to find a way to live together in peace, to share in the God given natural resources of their country. And why do they need other countries to run their industries, they can easily hire the personel that can teach them how to run their own industries.

In Bolivia, at least, the time has come for change. Unfortunately, in the US, as the disparity betweent the rich and poor grows, I believe we may also be headed for a similar fate. Those of us in the US may be watching glimpses of our own future.

10:16 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like the first shots were fired by the rich, those in power.

http://democracyctr.org/publications/imfindex.htm

"Through the large windows of the International Monetary Fund's office in La Paz you can see down to the rooftop where Ana Colque was shot and killed in February 2003. Army sharpshooters sent a bullet through her chest during a military assault intended to quell public protests against an economic belt-tightening package imposed on Bolivia by the IMF.

Colque, 24, was among thirty-four people killed during two days of violent conflict sparked by the announcement of a new tax on the nation's working poor. For an afternoon, the conflict erupted into a shooting war between Bolivia's army and police, directly in front of the National Congress and the Presidential Palace."

10:27 AM  
Blogger Chris and Sue said...

Can anyone out there tell us what is going on in the villages where the Peace Corp Volunteers are living?

Our son is one of them. No communication available at this time.

Chris and Sue

10:50 AM  
Blogger David Martínez said...

Muy bueno tu weblog... salu2!!

10:51 AM  
Anonymous Paul said...

"The leaders of the current protests are planning to continue their pressure on the government until two additional demands are met. The first is setting in motion the plan for convening a constituent assembly to rewrite the nation’s constitution. The second is a national referendum on re-nationalizing the country’s gas and oil reserves and a national vote on regional autonomy."

Maybe QuechuaAymarans don't want to install another European-style government (Marxism). Assuming QuechuaAymarans want a style of government aligned with of their own style of community assembly decision making, how could the constitution be re-written to reflect this desire? What is the desired outcome of the constituent assembly?

Why do leaders of the current protests want to have a national vote on regional autonomy? So that it can be voted down? If QuechuaAymarans are voting for an Altiplano autonomy, won't they be cut off from most of the wealth in Bolivia: gas, coca, forests, and soybeans? Who besides the miners could benefit? How would regional autonomy benefit the cocalaros? It seems odd to me that the protesters want the same thing that the "ruling elite" from Santa Cruz want--regional autonomy. Perhaps it would be best if Bolivia was divided into two, but wouldn't that make the nationalization of natural gas a bit of a moot point. I assume the Media Luna would want to keep gas privatized.


As a side note, I read that Morales, an Aymaran, actually has more support among Quechuans than Aymarans. Is it because they do more of the coca growing?


Another crazy thing is the access-to-the-sea issue. Is this issue more important to the QuechuaAymarans or to the lowlanders? If Chile gave Bolivia back the land it took in the War of the Pacific (1879-83), it would have to split itself in two. How much traffic went through Arica (Peru, founded 1570) and Iquique (Peru, founded 1500s) instead of Antofagasta (Bolivia, founded 1870). The Atacama desert was barely inhabited. Antofagasta was created only to ship nearby nitrates. Bolivia was called "Upper Peru" for a reason, the QuechuaAymarans lived in the mountains. Do Peruvian QuechuaAymarans make extensive use of Peruvian ports today? Landlocked Switzerland seems to do OK. QuechuaAymarans don't want to sell gas to Chileans, Americans, Argentinians (because they might sell it to Chileans), or anyone at all. How is Bolivia supposed to use gas as a carrot to win back access to the sea?


Don Roose said "yet another secret politician/businessman deal was going to give foreign corporate owners 82% of all the profit from hundreds of millions of cubic feet of natural gas ...leaving a huge 18% piece of the pie for Bolivianos to squabble over."
Actually, it was 18% of the revenues, not profits. It is not easy to determine how much of the remaining 82% foreign corporate owners would be able to turn into profits. Of those profits, no one seems to mention that these profits were to be taxed at a mininum of 25% (I'm assuming hydrocarbon companies do not have any special exemptions from corporate tax laws). At any rate, these are public corporations. Assuming Bolivians are allowed to purchase stock of foreign corporations, they are free to own as much of them as they can afford to buy. I really don't understand why the Bolivian government isn't more forthcoming about how much money Bolivia and the departments earn from hydrocarbons. Unless the only one actually earning money is the Bolivian politicians. However, they certainly don't have any reason to prop up Petrobras, Total, Sempra Energy, etc. If the numbers would show that they aren't actually "giving away the gas", why aren't they more forthcoming with the numbers?


Logan Foster said "there is no way they will accept the authority of these radical altiplano groups." But what if the radical altiplano groups are in the majority? Do you support minority rule?

10:57 AM  
Anonymous Logan Foster said...

I think that if the Altiplano groups can step outside the normal democratic process then so can Santa Cruz. Why should they allow their future to be messed up by these groups?
On another note, if Evo and gang do not get their desired results after the next election will all of this happen again? Probably.

11:28 AM  
Blogger Andrew T. said...

Logan - that's exactly why I think the process is so important.

I know that the indians have been getting the shaft for years. We all want a better, more democratic, more free, more just Bolivia.

But the issue is, how do you get from here to there?

My argument all along is that the process DOES matter because in the end that is the only way to eventually stumble our way to a better future for everyone.

The rule of law is easy to criticise, because it sounds too much like "status quo". But it's not. All sides have to be held to account.

But the process DOES matter.

And rule of law is also easy to take for granted if you've had it. When you lose it, all hell breaks lose and it's good for no one.

And at this point, I simply don't believe that a better future is closer now, because of all of this, than it was before.

Too much hatred and fanning of the flames. Too much demogaogary.

The point has been made over and over (and stated in these terms I do believe) - why bother with the ballot box - let's just do what we want.

Of course Bolivian democracy isn't some platonic model of perfection and justice. It's a freaking mess - but a freaking mess that's been getting better.

A freaking mess that had an indigenous vice president, a surge of indigenous congressment, and had Evo no less, get 22% last round (which has played the major role in making him a player).

The process has been shifting. The question is - what is getting us closer to a peaceful and just Bolivia? Continuing to push that system to consolidate and expand those gains? Or push it flaming into the abyss?

The point is - does what Evo et al are doing, no matter how justifiable from an emotional standpoint (and I even have issues with that, but that's another discussion) is furthering Bolivia from a stable, democratic, and just society where all Bolivians, regardless of ethnic background have justice and a stake in a shared future?

I spent a short time in South Africa and person after person, both black and white, talked about how important Nelson Mandela was. And what they said was that while it was hard for them (the blacks) to hold down their bile and hatred (most justified) the leadership of Mandela made them realize that a just and bright future for SA had to include both blacks and whites and that acting out of hatred would only spiral the country down into violence.

The rule of law sounds like I'm supporting Vaca Diez or the like, but I'm not. The rule of law holds for everyone - camba or kolla, indigenous or white, rich or poor. That's what makes law so important. It's the social contract that keeps society on the rails. It is out of whack in many ways in Bolivia, and by no means are rich politicians who are corruptly lining their pockets following the rule of law.

But neither is Evo. And by throwing his lot into the destruction of the system rather than its lawful reformation he's pushing the country towards violence.

Or put another way, the evil of the wait it requires to slowly rooting out corruption and slowling dealing with inequity, etc. to me is a much smaller evil than tossing the whole democratic project in the garbage.

And if you don't think that's what's happening, take a guess what will happen if the next elections don't go Evo's way.

Where can there be reconciliation in a atmosphere where Mallku is calling for, begging for, civil war? Where the racial element has been played upon without end on both sides?

The whites and the elites and the middle class and all stripes in between are part of Bolivia, whether Evo likes it or not. Bolivia is no more Evo's country than it is Vaca Diez's.

My mother in law is a widow. She was a school teacher and principal until she retired. She's from Tarija, is on the whiter end of the racial spectrum. She's incredibly dedicated to helping the poor. She won the country's highest honer (Condor of the Andes) for her educational work. She lives on her teachers pension in a very modest home, just able to make ends meet. She has fought tooth and nail for justice and an end to corruption day in and day out for years.

Evo's message to her? Fuck off - you're too white, and besides you're from Tarija.

Evo is not a whit more Bolivian than she is.

It's not so cut and dried as Evo (and many here) like to see it - the poor vs. the rich, the indigenous vs. the whites.

As for nationalization - yes, people have gotten screwed out of silver and tin, etc.

But Bolivia would be no better off today if it was sitting on all on all of that silver. Unless of course, it sold it.

The gas HAS to be sold to be of any benefit. The only question is - how do you do it? Foreign companies HAVE to be involved - Bolivia simply doesnt' have the money or technology to pull it off.

Maybe Evo has a great plan, but the truth is that most of the protestors are not thinking about nuanced policy options for selling gas - they are thinking about "keeping gas for the Bolivians". That's not a productive or realistic way to develop your natural resource potential.

Is the current law the right way to go? I don't know. But I don't think Evo's current bombast about nationaliziation (which, by the way, woudl open Bolivia to endless lawsuits) is going to do it.

Finally, THANK YOU rcardenas for your kind words!

As for Mr. Quiroga - well, I think he'd be a fool to run. Without making a judgement on him as a candidate, I think he'd have a fair shot at winning. The problem for him is - why take the job?

Bolivian President, at this point, is just north of Police Chief of Bagdad in terms of jobs you don't want to take.

Bolivia has a real leadership gap right now, and I have no idea who fills the gap.....

12:20 PM  
Blogger Dan said...

Let's be clear about what "nationalization" means and does not mean. Bolivians know they need to sell gas to make money from it. They even know they need outside help in extracting and processing it. But they want to do this on their own terms, through a transparent process, and enjoy a significant share of the proceeds.

This is why the IMF, the U.S., Goni, and transnationals share the responsibility in this whole mess.

From this very blog:
This afternoon I asked Carmen Peredo – a key leader of the irrigators’ union and major figure in the call for nationalization – what nationalization really means. What do they actually want?...
...Carmen says that what nationalization means, in this instance, is really about cutting out the middleman. If Repsol, British Petroleum, Shell or any of the others want Bolivian gas Bolivia would still happily sell it to them, but not at bargain prices set by those companies’ own subsidiaries. What the movements are demanding is that Bolivia set the sale price and that Bolivia take the big profits that the companies are now reaping through the scam of being both buyer and seller.
But where is Bolivia going to get the investment capital to develop their gas fields and the other infrastructure needed? Carmen says that there are all kinds of potential suitors, from Japan, China and elsewhere, who would be interested in getting their hands in on a deal to develop South America’s second largest gas reserves. Bolivia’s social movements, she says, are willing to deal with international players but from a position of controlling their own gas not having negotiated it away behind closed doors.


Say I walk over to your house every morning, knock on the door, and when you answer, I poke you in the eye, take your newspaper, and hand you a nickel. I do it every day for, say, a month. Then one day I come, knock on the door, and you come tearing out of the bushes with a frying pan and chase me out of the yard. Does it then make sense for the neighbors across the street, who've been watching all of this all month, to have heated arguments focusing on the bush you trampled and how the hell you expect to get your daily nickel now?

2:43 PM  
Anonymous S.L. Kabarski said...

Logan Foster wrote:
In my opinion these actions by the protesters will force Santa Cruz,etc. to move forward with seccesion plans and possibly annexation by Brazil. There is no way they will accept the authority of these radical altiplano groups.
----------

That statement simply proves the point that those groups (elites) supporting radical market fundamentalism ("neo-liberalism") are only interested in "the rule of law" when it rules in their favor.

On what legal basis can they claim the right to unilaterally secede (which is what this "autonomy" amounts to). None.

Logan Foster doesn't mince his words, I give him credit for that! The Santa Cruz et al elites will not accept a loss of power. Period. "Democracy" and "the rule of law" are absolutely subordinate to their political goals. If "democracy" and "the rule of law" are useful they are praised to high heaven; if they get in the way-- they are abandoned in a heart beat.

What message does that send?

4:02 PM  
Anonymous Logan Foster said...

How is forcing the president,the head of the senate, and the head of the congress to resign by intimidation democracy? How is laying seige to the government and people of La Paz the rule of law? The people of the oriente can see where the altiplano groups are going with this and they want no part of it.
I am glad the military has stepped in to return order.

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