What Now?

Last night Bolivia dodged a bullet but it came no closer whatsoever to addressing the fundamental issues that brought thousands into the streets and shut down the country – the call for re-nationalizing gas and oil; convening a constituent assembly to rewrite the Constitution, and deciding the fate of regional autonomy. Bolivia has a new President who will lead the process of deciding those issues and he is, quite fortunately, not the one who had all but pledged to start the process by sending out the army.

The first question is: What will the social movements who have mounted such fierce “street heat” do now? Evo Morales and MAS have signaled that they will give the government a truce of unknown duration to allow a dialogue on those issues with the Congress and new President. Other movements, most especially those in El Alto and the altiplano, have made it clear that they will continue to press on with their demands (on gas and a constituent assembly) and are no doubt in heavy discussions this morning about whether to call for a break in the heavy protests they have waged in the capital of La Paz.

We should know a good deal more by day’s end.

There is a proposal that I have seen, circulating among social movement leaders, mayors, and civic groups, which would constitute a concrete way forward. It would call for a “Super Election” in the next few months in which would include:

· Election of a new President and Vice-President

· Election of representatives to a Constituent Assembly empowered by the Congress and President to rewrite the Constitution

· A straight up or down, binding vote on renationalizing the gas and oil

· A vote on regional autonomy (in some unknown form)

In my view it is both a reasonable proposal and the only real route forward at this point. In the next few days watch for that proposal to surface with broad political support and then watch to see the reaction of the Congress and other political elites in the country who have so much power at stake.