An MNR Move to Hold onto Power?

Okay, the chess game of these "tal vez" December elections in Bolivia is getting pretty complicated to follow. However, there is another theory floating about that could well be plausible – What is underway is a skilled move by the on-its-deathbed MNR to hold on to power. Here's how it works:
First: The MNR, party of the 1952 revolution, has been Bolivia's dominant political power for half a century. It won two of the last three Presidential elections, when led by then-President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada. Today it still holds more seats in the Bolivian Congress than any other political party. However, the MNR is also about to get destroyed in national elections, in a way that could leave it a historical memory akin to Hugo Banzer's ADN, or the eight track for that matter. If the MNR breaks better than 5% in elections in December, that will be an achievement.

Second: Bolivia's current President, Eduardo Rodriguez, is constitutionally only supposed to be a transitional leader. If the elections do not take place as scheduled or shortly thereafter the delay could trigger Rodriguez's resignation. If that occurs, under the constitution the Presidency falls into the hands of the President of the Senate. That change of hands, in turn, would eliminate the constitutional requirement for new elections. Rodriguez' successor would be allowed to serve out the remainder of the presidential term which ends in 2007.

Third: The previous President of the Senate, Hermando Baca Diez from the MIR political party, resigned earlier to become the MIR's presidential candidate (another candidate who will be lucky to crack 5%). His successor, Sandro Giordano, hails from the MNR and has made no public statement as to his interest in ascending to the Presidency.

In other words, if a reasonably possible sequence of events plays out over the next few weeks, the MNR could be back in the Presidency for two years, backed by the Congressional plurality it won in 2002. That scenario, if you are an MNR office holder or activist anxious to get your hands back on power and patronage, looks a whole lot more promising than getting beaten into political oblivion in eight weeks.

Mind you, this scenario is no MAS conspiracy. Former President and current candidate Tuto Quiroga launched just this accusation. He is quoted in today's Los Tiempos (the Cochabamba daily) warning, "Democracy should not be about the ambitions of a few who do not want to leave power." Similarly, the other main candidate of the right-center, Samuel Doria Medina, sent letters this week to the heads of both houses of Congress exhorting them to, "put an end to the political uncertainly and comply with their patriotic roll owed to the people."

To be clear, a scenario by which the MNR takes the Presidency through suspension of elections will be greeted about as warmly by Bolivia's social movements as Baptist fundamentalists might welcome a transvestite bishop. If the MNR really is pondering such a move it must be carefully weighing how much turmoil it is willing to provoke in order to retake power. I can't imagine anyone sane being willing to do this to Bolivia. But political ambition has trumped sanity in more countries than this one.

Stay tuned for the ever-changing game of "will we vote or won’t we".