The Latest on Bolivia's "Maybe" Elections

They were the elections that weren't scheduled to happen, but came to be when a President resigned and two Congressional leaders were forced to leave aside their presidential aspirations. Then they were scheduled, got declared unconstitutional, then constitutional again, but they still might not happen, even though the candidates are campaigning fiercely.

Do we all follow that now? Welcome to the "tal vez" world of the Bolivia's national elections, best as I can tell of course.

Will There be a Vote December 4th?

Well, the elections are still scheduled, technically. They also now have a new blessing of constitutionality from the National Election Tribunal. However, the Congress is still in hot debate over whether and how to reapportion the various seats in Congress between the regions of the country, to conform to the most recent population census. Again, technically, the Congress has until Thursday to come to an agreement. It doesn’t look good right now. If they don't reach agreement I don’t know what happens to Dec. 4th. To be honest, neither does anyone else, really. But this is Bolivia, "todo es possible".

The New Poll

Los Tiempos, the Cochabamba daily, splattered the results of a new poll across its front page the other day, reporting Tuto Quiroga in the lead. That lead, however, is less than a percentage point (Quirgoa 29.2%, Morales 28.3%, Medina 16.5%), well within the margin of error. This is especially the case in Bolivia where realistic polling in the countryside is tricky at best. Any US pollster worth her salt would have called it a tie.

The Los Tiempos coverage was accompanied by a smashing graphic in which a tall, suit-wearing Tuto stands a head above his opponents, arms crossed and looking a bit like Clark Kent without glasses. A boyish looking Evo Morales is wearing a green t-shirt with a coca leaf on it and his arms hidden behind him. My bet is he is holding some of that cash from Cuba and Venezuela, though it is hard to be sure.

Interestingly, according to the poll, Quiroga isn't winning in any of the three big regions of the country. He is getting wiped out by Morales in La Paz (43.2% to 15.6%) and beaten handily by him again in Cochabamba (34.8% to 28.9%). In Santa Cruz he is losing to Samuel Doria Medina (33.3% to 30%). That translates into a lot of Congressional seats Quiroga wouldn’t win and makes his task of winning a Presidency vote in the Congress all the harder.

Tuto's "Only if I'm First" Threat

As I have noted with a series of foreign press this week, if you want to follow these elections you need to think chess. Every move portends a series of political moves ahead. Getting to the real possibilities takes a lot of analysis. Take for example this. Tuto Quiroga, some weeks ago, made a public pledge that he would not accept the Presidency unless he comes in first place in the voting. The standard analysis here is that if Evo finishes first with 30% or so, the task of finding a coalition partner that gets him 21% more is insurmountable. Quiroga and Doria Medina cut a coalition deal and whoever comes in second heads that coalition.

Well, if Morales and MAS finish first and Quiroga second, and if Quiroga keeps that pledge (repeated by his running mate a couple of days ago), legally, the Congress has to elect Evo Morales President. Bolivian law stipulates (a recent reform) that the Congress must select from among the top two vote getters and only the top two vote getters. If Quiroga pulls out that only leaves the fellow wearing a coca leaf on his chest in a Los Tiempos cartoon. It is safe to assume that the US Embassy is not too fond of that particular scenario.

What is Tuto Quiroga thinking? He may be making a play to get Medina voters to come to his side, making him the only viable anti-Evo. He may have decided that becoming President after finishing second to Morales is not a Presidency he wants to have (frankly, not a bad calculation). Here is where chess becomes poker. Is he bluffing in a play to get votes? Is he serious?

Compared to the democratic circus underway here in Bolivia, those "so-called elections" that Arnold Schwarzenegger has called back home in California next month don’t look like anything.