Saturday, October 22, 2005

Rumors

The Bolivian Congress and President remain locked in negotiations over how to apportion Congressional seats among the country’s regions, an issue that threatens to sidetrack the scheduled December 4 elections. Now the official word is that the government has until the end of the month to settle the matter (end of next week, essentially) before the elections really do get postponed.

Personally, I think that they will work out a last minute deal. The cost of not holding elections is too high. I think the country would basically explode in protest. But, as always, todo es posible and we’ll keep you posted.

Meanwhile, there are a variety of important rumors floating around Bolivia these days, some of which have come to me from some pretty high-level sources. I present these for what they are at this point, rumors and nothing more. But perhaps some of our readers can shed light on which, if any, can be verified.

Medina Ready to Back Morales in the Congress Vote

A very high level source told me this week that Samuel Doria Medina, the almost certain third place finisher in the December vote, is ready to throw his support behind Evo Morales in the Congressional vote for President, if Morales and MAS come in first place in the popular vote. The latest poll shows the two of them together (Morales and Medina) winning about 45% of the vote. As the undecideds fall into one column or another by lections day, that total could easily pass the 51% needed.

A Morales/Medina alliance could take two forms. Medina and his UN party alliance could just vote to make Morales President and not join the government. This options doesn’t win them any political spoils in terms of jobs and power but it lets Medina and his allies say “it wasn’t us” if the MAS government goes up in political flames down the road. Alternatively, Medina and his backers could join a MAS government. A ver.

The US Government is Telling US Citizens to Get Ready to Leave Bolivia

I have been hearing this one for weeks, from a variety of sources. Supposedly parents at the American school in La Paz have been told to make alternative arrangements for their children at schools in the US. US citizens have supposedly been told to have their travel papers in order, etc. I have yet to hear any of this from any source that has been told this by the US Embassy directly. I have also spoken with US employees here who would surely have been among those told, and they claim they have never heard any such thing. Still, the rumors persist. The question, if it is true, is, as one reader put it here last week: What does the US Embassy know that we don’t?”

A Coup or US Intervention in the Works?

This has also been the subject of a good deal of Internet speculation. What is this US military base in Paraguay? What is he US doing there? What kind of forces does it have at its disposal there? Are plans under way t use the base as some sort of staging area for US intervention, for example, if a MAS government takes office? Another source of mine here claims that the US government has been carefully cultivating relationships with “anti-Evo” forces in the Bolivian military, presumably for some sort of US-backed coup down the road.

Again, I repeat, these are only rumors at this point. Not a single one of them is firmly documented. They may turn out to be totally false. However, surprising revelations usually do surface first as rumors. If anyone out there has real documentation that can shed light on any of these, please post away.

46 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hear Argentina and Brazil are the players to watch - they've got a lot going on too. It's a good idea to try to look at this in more than just an Bolivia-U.S. context. I feel that in general this is a mistake the left makes - to always look at countries solely in terms of U.S. foreign policy. I suppose if the U.S. is your only bad-this is natural. But a lot of nations are making moves on Bolivia. Power abhors a vaccuum.

3:33 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This writer has received a warning from an unknown person who claimed to have attended a U.S. consulate meeting. American citizens are advised to not draw attention to themselves. Good luck gringos. Also, stock up on a week supply of food. That's a no brainer in the land of bloqueos.

Whether or not this is valid or bogus info is unimportant. I have received valid warnings twice in the last year when upheaval was threatening and guess what, the U.S. did not invade and the Bolivians managed to prolong their misery with this ridiculous election all on their own.

As far as a U.S. base in Paraguay, has anyomne stopped to think what an invasion would look like? Most likely an air assult (shock and awe) would start it off. Maybe they would destroy a few mud brick houses or cripple the little infrastrtucture that exists here. No really, what could an air assult do that blockades don't already do? And an occupation? Out of the question. Guerilla resistance would be intense and even Bush isn't that stupid. Maybe it is to draw away attention from the Chilean invasion from the west?

Maybe it is to facilitate the drop offs of those suitcases of money that they pay to congress to keep them deadlocked on silly issues like whether or not each department should get as many seats in congress as the census dictates.

9:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous #3 said...

This some scary shit, but I tend to agree with Anonymous number 2. No offense to Haiti's people, who are getting ASS-FUCKED right now, but being the second poorest nation in the continent does have its perks... we are landlocked which means lots of fronts and lots of borders to control, we have strong social movements whose lack (according to some) of a coherent and practicable national goal would be beautifully answered by invasory forces to throw molotov's and dynamite at. basically, the amount of outright butchery required for any outside intervention or local coup scenario will probably discourage any takers... unless of course there were a 9/11 v2 attributed to the chavez-castro-evo axis??

there is evidence that significant groups of military power favor sovereign democracy and in some cases explicitly a MAS victory.

Kirchner and Lula are currently benefitting from being on the receiving end of Chavez's Bolivarian generosity. so the general flow of regional geopolitics favors a Democratic turn of events in Bolivia, and nobody except foolish international commentators believe that this could genuinely be represented by the HydroCarbon Oligarchs in Santa Cruz. It could be said that Chavez doesn't really care and he has his own petro transnational to look after, but Venezuela is precisely the one s.american nation that can afford to look beyond Bolivia's gas even at personal expense.. if it so chooses.

interesting rumours, i hope thats all they are.

really liked your last post, que sean muchos mas!

12:22 PM  
Blogger Upside Down Blog said...

For articles I've written on US military operations in Paraguay and the threat of a US intervention in Bolivia, go here:
http://upsidedownworld.org/main/content/category/5/21/44/

Saludos,
BD

9:19 AM  
Blogger Paisano de Elite said...

Any US Citizen or resident can subscribe in a US Consulate and get its monthly newsletter via e-mail, so the amount of “rumors” about official US warnings could diminish. The September issue had the following to say about current safety in Bolivia:
“Roadblocks and public demonstrations, which may commence peacefully but turn violent, are increasingly common in Bolivia particularly before, during and after elections such as those scheduled for December 4, 2005. U.S. citizens in or traveling to Bolivia should monitor local media, e.g. radio, television or newspaper reports, for the latest updates. We strongly recommend that U.S. citizens avoid areas where roadblocks and/or public demonstrations are occurring or reportedly may occur. U.S. citizens who find themselves in a roadblock should not attempt to “run” the roadblock as this may aggravate the situation and lead to physical harm. Taking alternative, safe routes and/or returning to where the travel started may be the safest courses of action under these circumstances. U.S. citizens embarking on road trips should monitor news reports and may contact the American Citizen Services Unit in La Paz or the consular agencies in Cochabamba and/or Santa Cruz for updates. Given that roadblocks may occur without warning, however, and have stranded travelers for several days, travelers may wish to take extra food and water. The U.S. Embassy also advises its employees to maintain at least one week’s supply of drinking water and food, such as canned items that will not spoil, in case of roadblocks affecting supplies such as occurred in June 2005.”
As you all can read, nothing weird like “asking a school to have a month’s worth of food and water” is happening so fare; do any of you really believe that anybody is going to leave his house to go to an International School, where we all know is fool of American Citizens during a civil unrest or war to ask for refuge?. Does waiting like seating ducks sound familiar to anyone? I believe mister anonymous is just trying to play with our mints trying to scare people with no reason. Well, anonymous would have his/hers reasons.

9:52 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

JC says,

I see no reason why the US would intervene in this situation. The likelihood of Evo pulling 51% even with Medina is unlikely, and even if it were possible, electoral fraud seems a much easier option. Seeing as Bolivian gas reserves were only discorvered a mere 10 years ago, and social unrest regarding it is already so high, any iota of US physical intervention would result in social chaos for Bolivia and international condemnation for the US. The US doesn't want control, it wants continued chaos for an already crippled Bolivia.

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