To the Brink…Elections Postponed
Well it is official (for now at least). The ongoing haggling over the distribution of congressional seats has forced the postponement of Bolivia’s December 4 national elections. Until what date is anyone’s guess.
This afternoon, Bolivia’s National Electoral Court, the government body that runs elections, issued a formal declaration that, due to the delay in finalizing the congressional seats, it is now too late to make all the needed logistical preparations for the election. For months Bolivia has been wandering through the political minefield of unconstitutionality (very little about these elections actually conforms to the national constitution). Now Bolivia has taken all this one step further, into the minefield of national unpredictability.
What Next?
Watch the pressure on Congress to reach an agreement go from hot to boiling and watch that pressure now start to spill into the streets. With Evo Morales holding a steady first place lead in most recent polls his backers have started to see a real chance to take power in January. They see the postponement of the election as a prelude to outright cancellation, a conspiracy, they claim, to block his route to the presidency. Saturday his backers are set to hold a massive rally in his base in the Chapare region of the Cochabamba tropics. Morales has already hinted at launching street mobilizations to mount pressure on the Congress, a move that may be followed as well by social movement leaders in El Alto.
Morales’s greatest ally in the scramble for a quick resolution may be the nation’s interim President, Eduardo Rodríguez, who is watching his promised brief stint as Bolivia’s leader turn into a nightmare. He pledged to come in, hold clean elections, and get out. His exit is looking less and less clean every day and he is clearly working hard to push for a compromise and resolution. My bet is that negotiations over the weekend will be hot and heavy in hopes of a breakthrough Monday. If there is one, then the elections might be delayed just a week, until December 11th.
Brinksmanship
I had an interesting chat today with one of the many foreign journalists trying to make sense of all this and he asked me, “Why can’t these people in Congress come to a decision?” It is a reasonable question, particularly from outside the nation. [I have also found many reporters keenly interested in the “will there be elections” question for another reason. They need to figure out whether to come here or not, and when.]
This is not about Congress being unable to decide. This is about a competition of interests – regional, ideological, partisan, and personal – and a willingness by those involved to push things to the brink to win their demands. Set aside, for the moment, the debate over the legitimacy of each region’s position (there is more than one side to any issues, to be sure). The longer this goes on and the closer Bolivia gets pushed to the political brink, the more likely the holdouts (Santa Cruz and now Cochabamba in this case) are to get their way or something closer to it than what is on the table.
This is not unique to politics in Bolivia. US Republicans shut down the federal government during a budget fight with President Clinton. That showdown ended with the GOP looking irresponsible and with Clinton passing the time away with a thong-clad intern, two events that didn’t end well for any of those involved.
The stakes in Bolivia are higher still right now. Stay tuned over the next few days as the Bolivian political roller coaster starts shifting into high gear.
This afternoon, Bolivia’s National Electoral Court, the government body that runs elections, issued a formal declaration that, due to the delay in finalizing the congressional seats, it is now too late to make all the needed logistical preparations for the election. For months Bolivia has been wandering through the political minefield of unconstitutionality (very little about these elections actually conforms to the national constitution). Now Bolivia has taken all this one step further, into the minefield of national unpredictability.
What Next?
Watch the pressure on Congress to reach an agreement go from hot to boiling and watch that pressure now start to spill into the streets. With Evo Morales holding a steady first place lead in most recent polls his backers have started to see a real chance to take power in January. They see the postponement of the election as a prelude to outright cancellation, a conspiracy, they claim, to block his route to the presidency. Saturday his backers are set to hold a massive rally in his base in the Chapare region of the Cochabamba tropics. Morales has already hinted at launching street mobilizations to mount pressure on the Congress, a move that may be followed as well by social movement leaders in El Alto.
Morales’s greatest ally in the scramble for a quick resolution may be the nation’s interim President, Eduardo Rodríguez, who is watching his promised brief stint as Bolivia’s leader turn into a nightmare. He pledged to come in, hold clean elections, and get out. His exit is looking less and less clean every day and he is clearly working hard to push for a compromise and resolution. My bet is that negotiations over the weekend will be hot and heavy in hopes of a breakthrough Monday. If there is one, then the elections might be delayed just a week, until December 11th.
Brinksmanship
I had an interesting chat today with one of the many foreign journalists trying to make sense of all this and he asked me, “Why can’t these people in Congress come to a decision?” It is a reasonable question, particularly from outside the nation. [I have also found many reporters keenly interested in the “will there be elections” question for another reason. They need to figure out whether to come here or not, and when.]
This is not about Congress being unable to decide. This is about a competition of interests – regional, ideological, partisan, and personal – and a willingness by those involved to push things to the brink to win their demands. Set aside, for the moment, the debate over the legitimacy of each region’s position (there is more than one side to any issues, to be sure). The longer this goes on and the closer Bolivia gets pushed to the political brink, the more likely the holdouts (Santa Cruz and now Cochabamba in this case) are to get their way or something closer to it than what is on the table.
This is not unique to politics in Bolivia. US Republicans shut down the federal government during a budget fight with President Clinton. That showdown ended with the GOP looking irresponsible and with Clinton passing the time away with a thong-clad intern, two events that didn’t end well for any of those involved.
The stakes in Bolivia are higher still right now. Stay tuned over the next few days as the Bolivian political roller coaster starts shifting into high gear.

The Democracy Center, based in Cochabamba Bolivia and San Francisco California, works globally to advance human rights through a combination of investigation and reporting, training citizens in the art of public advocacy, and organizing international citizen campaigns. If you like the Blog, consider becoming a subscriber to The Democracy Center's free e-newsletter by sending us an email at 
23 Comments:
I just hope that in years to come, this stage of bolivian history will be remembered with embarrasment, I wish all those related to the people now inparliament were feeling embarrased to be related to them, or to even know them. Shouldn't any bolivian see that now (even if just for a few hours) it is not time for personal/group interests? This is unacceptable! They all deserve to die (just joking), but now, seriously, wouldn't it be better if they were all erased from te face of the earth?
Is there a case here for Morales and MAS to claim the moral ground and score some political points by getting their supporters in La Paz, Oruro and Potosi to concede all four congressional seats that Santa Cruz is demanding?
Might such a gesture, offered in the interests of breaking the constitutional deadlock and maintaining national unity, not actually improve Morales' chance of gaining the presidency?
MAS has most to gain from this early election and most people now seem to expect its supporters to shut down the country once again. Yet that sort of disruption may actually cost Morales votes whenever an election eventually takes place – it portrays him as the rabble-rouser that his opponents want him to be.
My understanding (which may well be flawed) is that Morales will still win the popular vote anyway, yet faces the problem of gaining the presidency in Congress.
If I've read Jim's entry of Oct. 11 correctly, he thinks Medina – running strongly in Santa Cruz – may actually be willing to hand the presidency to Morales in return for a coalition deal.
Surely he would only be more likely to do that if Morales is seen to have conceded over the congressional seats issue – and there would surely also be greater onus on Congress to offer him the presidency if he comes in first in the popular vote.
There are several problems for Morales. He needs the votes from La Paz, Oruro, and Potosi. They show that his popularity is more than just regional and those areas are traditionally Indian dominated centers. If he concedes seats then he can lose a lot of votes in those three regions. This on top of the fact that his numbers have been slipping because of supporters that are becoming unhappy with the way MAS has been behaving recently. If he cedes to Santa Cruz he won't seem conciliatory he will seem power-hungry: he'll be do anything to become President of Bolivia.
Morales might seem a rabble rouser, but a lot of people are pissed off at this congress. I am pissed at them. These people are a waste of money. They don't speak for the people that voted for them and the parties that put them in power don't exist any more. They don't know who to follow and they are scared to death. The only thing going for Congress is representing regional interests. There are no national parties only parties stitched together from regional interests. This means there is nothing in it for them to make the elections go forward.
anonymous 1: interesting proposal.
anonymous 2: do you mean he'd lose the congressional support he needs to become president, assuming he doesn't win the majority? it sounds like you are talking about the actual election at the poles ("If he concedes seats then he can lose a lot of votes in those three regions"), but that shouldn't be affected by the redistribution, should it? I mean, isn't this a direct popular election (as opposed to a parliamentary style prime minister election, or an electoral college system)? assuming it is, it shouldn't matter where people vote - presumably MAS pacenos moving to santa cruz would actually serve to increase the MAS votes in SC, no? the issue comes in the coalition-building stage in congress, after the popular elections, assuming nobody wins >50%. right? just clarifying.
further clarification: what i mean is, the census doesn't determine how many people actually show up at the poles in a given place. people live where they live. regardless of which census is used, the results of the voting should be the same.
never mind. not that big a deal. i'll shut up now.
Isn't Cochabamba one of the regions where Morales is leading? An extra congressional seat for that region wouldn't hurt him but the Santa Cruz seats probably would hurt his candicacy. Regardless of the allocation of congressional seats a first-place finish would give him a strong position for the presidency so wouldn't it be in his interest to resolve this issue or is he thinking ahead to the constitutional convention?
Actually I think Dan is wrong on whether or not the allocation of congressional seats affects the presidential election.
If Morales comes in first place but wins less than 50% of the vote doesn't the election go to the Bolivian Congress to determine the winner?
that's actually exactly what i said.
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