Words to Eat

I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
-- Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM 1943

Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised.
-- George W. Bush, address to the U.S., March 17, 2003

I think that Evo has about as much chance of becoming President of Bolivia after next December’s elections as I have of being Bush’s pick for the US Supreme Court.
--Jim Shultz, July 14, 2005

Yogi Berra once wisely noted that one should never make predictions, "and especially about the future." Last July I wrote the Blog entry above, predicting that there was no real chance that Evo Morales could become the President of Bolivia as a result of the (maybe) national elections scheduled for December 4th. A lot has changed in the past two months and I'd like to take that prediction back.

Today I think there is a very real chance that Evo Morales could win the Presidency in the coming elections and here is what has changed.

One: The consolidation of the Bolivian left.

In elections past, such as in 2002, the Bolivian left has gone into national elections in a pretty fragmented state. MAS and Morales were joined by a host of other serious left candidacies, reform candidacies, and parties that weren't really left but made some populist noises (Manfred Reyes Villa in 2002). The 2002 election was also largely ignored by left social movements. In contrast, Morales and MAS have succeeded in forming a relatively unfired left with broad social movement participation and no real ideological competition. The right and center, on the other hand, are deeply split.

Two: It looks more and more likely that Morales will come in first.

The polls, including dubious ones, all show MAS and Morales either well out front in the popular vote or basically tied with Quiroga. I think the MAS lead will only solidify. Quiroga's candidacy doesn't seem to be catching on. An observation here. There are two kinds of political bases to operate with in Bolivia, regional and class. Medina opted for region when he picked the godfather of Santa Cruz autonomy to be his running mate, which looks to be paying off. Medina looks set to carry Santa Cruz. Morales has a mix of the two. He has a solid regional base in Cochabamba and looks to have won himself another in La Paz/El Alto. Quiroga has no regional base, really. He is banking that a certain class positioning and product-style marketing will build him a base that cuts across regions. Picking a running mate who is a newscaster with no political experience fits the strategy. It doesn't seem to be working.

Three: If Morales comes in first, the social movements will use street pressure to make him President.

If Morales comes in first, even by a few points, the voices from the streets will be loud and clear. "He won the vote now deliver the Presidency." There is no constitutional requirement on this but I think the social movements are well-prepared to send a hard message that Bolivia will become ungovernable if Morales is passed over for whomever finishes second. I am not saying that is the most democratic way to settle an election. I am merely reporting what I think is a likely outcome. Thousands of people chanting and yelling and setting off fireworks outside the Congress doors can have a bit of an impact on the people voting inside. Add to that street pressure the attractiveness, to the Medina forces, of cutting all kinds of coalition deals to turn a weak third place finish into real power in the government, and you can start to see the outlines of a January Morales inaugural.

Again, predictions are wobbly territory in politics, and in Bolivian politics, they are downright iffy. But, aside from the still hovering question of whether there will be elections at all December 4th, this is how the changing dynamics look to me this morning.