IMF Announces Plans to Cancel $251 Million in Bolivian Debt
The International Monetary Fund announced yesterday plans to cancel the $3.3 billion in debt owed to it by 19 countries. Among these is Bolivia, with a debt cancellation of $251 million.
This is clearly a policy that has been in motion at the Fund for a while and has no connection to Sunday’s election results. I haven’t had time to take a close look at this. Here are some questions that, perhaps, some of our commenters can answer:
1. Are there any conditions that Bolivia has to meet before the debt forgiveness becomes final?
2. Are there conditions that Bolivia has already agreed to?
3. What happens if President-elect Morales decides to take action that the IMF is clearly not pleased with, like canceling a flurry of foreign oil company contracts?
The IMF has a clear history of heavy handedness in Bolivia (see our recent report, Deadly Consequences) so it is reasonable to ask these questions.
This is clearly a policy that has been in motion at the Fund for a while and has no connection to Sunday’s election results. I haven’t had time to take a close look at this. Here are some questions that, perhaps, some of our commenters can answer:
1. Are there any conditions that Bolivia has to meet before the debt forgiveness becomes final?
2. Are there conditions that Bolivia has already agreed to?
3. What happens if President-elect Morales decides to take action that the IMF is clearly not pleased with, like canceling a flurry of foreign oil company contracts?
The IMF has a clear history of heavy handedness in Bolivia (see our recent report, Deadly Consequences) so it is reasonable to ask these questions.
posted by The Democracy Center at 10:24 AM
The Democracy Center, based in Cochabamba Bolivia and San Francisco California, works globally to advance human rights through a combination of investigation and reporting, training citizens in the art of public advocacy, and organizing international citizen campaigns. If you like the Blog, consider becoming a subscriber to The Democracy Center's free e-newsletter by sending us an email at 
39 Comments:
An it is reasonable that you won't believe the evil has become a saint.
Dude! for number 3, IMF condones the debt in January 1st 2006. Bolivian nightmare begins on January 22nd.
Dude! practice your spanish here:
http://www.americaeconomia.com/newsletter/html/22122005.html
Imagine now, all those bad things the IMF was doing to Bolivia happened to be for free! What a joke Jimmy boy. ;-)
A few things I read is that the debt cancellation does not include debt owed to the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) which for many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean is the largest creditor. 100% debt relief actually means 41% because it doesn't cover debts owed to other international banks such as the Inter-American Development Bank or Government creditors such as Spain. Bolivia's debt will still equal $2896 million dollars, or $333 owed by every Bolivian. It will release little or no new money for vital investment in tackling poverty. It is likely to only reduce the amount it pays in servicing its debts to $232 million, a mere drop of 16%. The end of debt payments to the IMF and World Bank is being paid for by reducing the exact same amount of aid flows from the World Bank, which leaves Bolivia in pretty much the same place. Bolivia is eligible to apply for new aid flows from the World Bank, but these are likely to be under strict conditions which could include the rejection of nationalization of Bolivia's gas even if this is supported by the majority of Bolivia's population.
31 December 2004 - Bolivia owed in total $4,950 million owed of which $2054 million (41%) will be cancelled. Large debts are still owed to IADB ($1658 million) and CAF ($742 million) followed by bilateral creditors: Spain ($142 million) and Brazil($87 million) and Japan $72 million.
According to Iriarte, 33% of Bolivia's debts were contracted under dictatorship. Much of the debt was also contracted with little public benefit from privatization deals under Lozada to paying back other debts and failed projects such as the Banco Agricola.
According to Iriarte, between 1971 and 2000, Bolivia paid more including interest all of legitimate debt (according to Iriarte) than it received in aid flows.
Many groups in the South also point out the huge ecological debt that the West owes countries like Bolivia from the huge overconsumption that has a devastating impact on the poor worldwide and the dependence we have on countries like Bolivia which still contain the largest forest reserves and biodiversity in the world.
A recent report by Christian Aid, Actionaid and Jubilee Debt Campaign said that 62 countries would need 100% debt cancellation as well as increased aid. The current deal is only designed for 18 countries.
I remember Bolivia's debt was halved to around 2 billion not too long ago,now its back in the 4's again, whats the point if they are going to take out more loans until they are unable to pay, this cycle has to stop.
As the above commenter noted, Im not sure i understand the logic of calling for debt cancellation and increased aid. When aid comes from the WB or the IMF of the IADB it always comes as loans, rather than as grants. When a country is in debt it will always be forced to follow the economic advice of the creditors.
My question: Can Bolivia's gas reserves be profitably nationalized?? If they can, then Bolivia will be able to pay off its debt and able to ignore neoliberal advice from lending institutions. But apparently the gas need expensive investment (pipelines to the pacific ocean) to be profitably exported. So who is Morales going to have to enter into a deal with to get the gas flowing? Where does that investment come from?
Venezuela is an interesting example: the reason Chavez has been able to be so beligerent towards the US and lending groups is that he has enough money and is not in the position of asking for loans. Indeed, he is even giving oil and loans away to all the carribean countries and poor families in Boston. Obviously he is not under the thumb of the IMF. Can Bolivia get into that position?
I have no idea of how practical these ideas are; they are offered in the spirit of "brain-storming".
Since Bolivia is so extremely close to the Pacific, perhaps Bolivia could buy some sort of right of way to the coast from Peru or Chile, paid for by a percentage of gas/oil income?
Or, alternatively, sell the petroleum products to one of their neighbors-Peru, Chile, Brazil, Argentina- who could then resell it to whomever they chose?
Malcolm, did you just hit a nerve. Bolivia lost their right to the sea in a war with Chile slightly before the American Civil War. There has been bad blood between the two nations since then. That very proposal to run a pipeline for gas through Chile led to "Black October" with major blockades, rioting, around 50 dead and 1 preident toppled. Bolivia will deal amicably with Chile when Chile returns the oceanfront property they took in the war. Chile will return the ocean access shortly after the US returns California to Mexico.
You'd be beter off not trying to apply common sense solutions to Bolivian politics. Good effort though.
sorry about hitting a nerve, Norman. I know that Bolivia lost its access to the sea to Chile, though I have to admit I did not know when, nor anything else about it. I promise to go find out, right after I post this.
I guess, being associated with a capitalist country, I hoped that the monetary benefits which could acrue to each country might ameliorate the bad blood to some extent. Maybe not.
Using your Mexico/California argument, let's see. Mexico has managed to "get over it", at least to the extent that they are more than willing to do business with the US. Of course, they are simultaneously taking California back, in effect, by immigrating and having large families. At curent reproductive rates, the Latinos will be the major "ethnic group" pretty soon. I guess if the US "stole it fair and square", the Mexicans are "stealing it back fair and square".
I have been reading a lot about South American politics lately, and it appears that Chile, as opposed to Peru, is, at least, "left leaning". Perhaps they will be willing to work for the good of all of South America to facilitate independence for Bolivia, and improving the lives of other SA countries, including their own.
Regardless, it seems apparent that Morales needs very much to find a way to export gas and oil, or he'll be another footnote in history. I wish him the best, personally.
Regards
You didn't hit any nerve of mine... I'm as gringo as they come. I've just been living here a while and you can't avoid learning about the resentment. The last several presidents have ben trying to figure out how to best get the gas out to people who will pay the best price for it. Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada tried the Chile route and now he's in exile in the US. Carlos Mesa tried a couple of ideas, but whenever anyone hinted at protesting, well let's just say I'm no fan of his. He simply conceded to whomever protested. Unfortunately you can't please everyone and he ended up leaving office. Mr. Rodriguez is really just keeping the seat warm. Mr. Morales may succeed where others have failed. He has one great advantage over his predecesors: he won't have Evo Morales undermining his every effort to do something positive for the country. I'm not betting one way or the other on him. The debt forgiveness is exceptionally good timing for him. He should be able to play it some. If he carries out his campaign promises on coca, he stands to loose hundreds of millions in foreign aid. He may try to moderate his efforts there only enough to reduce the damage. Chavez will prop him up some, but even he can't make up for all the loss. I think Bolivia's in for a rough ride, but too many people have under-estimated Evo Morales. He may pull this off. Unfortunately I think I and quite a few others will be watching from the outside in the near future.
How can there be an IMF forgiveness story without some "yankee imperialist" rhetoric?
Morales does not need the IMF. He can & should get all he needs from Chavez, who should be paying Bolivia's bills now.
If that's is not enough, Morales can increase his energy share from 50% to 75%.
Then he can encourage his drug dealing buddies to increase cocaine production, and donate some help to his government.
With legalized cocaine production Morales could setup the first state approved cocaine production facilities right next door to the presidential palace in Plaza Murillo. They could produce the highest quality coke with Bolivian ingredient labels and government stamps, and sell for top price.
Who needs the IMF?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The exaggerations and inflammatory rhetoric you see above is the sad sound of a Bolivian elite who just watched 54% of the people tell them they can't run the country any more, having not done a very good job of it the past few decades.
Now they will go to bed each night, expressing their patriotism in the form of prayers to heaven for Morales to fail, taking Bolivia down with him.
Is there any question left about why they lost the election 2 to 1?
Liberals are always talking about "cultural coca chewing rights" because they have been chewing it for thousands of years. Common sense tells you they were growing it that long enough in sufficient quantities to satisfy the local market.
When the government privatized the mines, they relocated Aymara miners to Chapare to be farmers. These miners are the most bloodthirsty violent group in Bolivia. They also sacrificed llammas in the mines to the demons for safety. They are the ones who usually show up at the street demos and blockades with the dynamite. When normal farming was too hard work, they turned to NEW COCA farming to supply the cocaine drug lords. From this group of "coca-for-cocaine only" farmers came Evo Morales as union leader.
The drug lords have backed the Morales election. I believe unobstructed cocaine production with no government interference is the prime #1 policy of the Morales government. Nothing will be allowed to interfere with that priority. And they will kill any and all who stand in their way.
Incidentally, I have not heard a word about the democratic ideal of protection of minority rights from this new government.
Anyone who is not 100% pure Aymara ethnic identity better sell their property, business, or whatever, and get out of Bolivia, while you can. That includes Quechuas, mestizos, and any foreignors. This could be the beginning of a very racist Aymara government including the ethnic cleansing that goes with it.
So... is there are difference between "bloodthirsty violent groups" and bloodthirsty corporations/govts abusing human rights under their supposed law worldwide?
I will not get out of Bolivia - I came here specifically at this point in the turn of events to stay. Fear is a disease that has penetrated to many elite's brains and want to pass them on to others pfft...
"I believe unobstructed cocaine production with no government interference is the prime #1 policy of the Morales government. Nothing will be allowed to interfere with that priority."
If this is the case, then guess who our #1 buyers are going to be still? u guessed right.. 1st world countries --- and u think that the conservatives would have changed this? -- anyways.
Talk about two sides of the spectrum. I thought I was on the right. For all concerned, Bolivia's plight did not begin in the past few decades; it's been this way, and it is by no means the "elite's" fault. (Who is that by the way; anyone making over $15,000, or is there a racial criteria as well?) I do like Bolivia, but it's about as close to lawless and ungovernable as I've seen.
I'd love to believe Evo is sincere about why he wants to legalize coca... but I don't. Jim is right; Chapare coca is good for cocaine, not for chewing. (I'm mnot so sure I agree with the ethnic cleansing part.) Besides, Evo lies about so many other things.
BTW Pituko, we know the cocaine is bound mostly for 1st world countries... that's why we'd like to see it stop. That's why we've put so much money into alternative development. I don't know if anyone has mentioned it, but cocaine is a moderaltey dangerous nasty drug that kills folks. So we try to stop people in the 1st world from buying it and selling it and using it, etc. We would appreciate your help in not manufacturing poison and shipping it to us. By the way, have you looked in the gutters of second ring... it's your problem too.
We'd love to see drugs that kill people go poof, such as cocaine, alcohol, let's add tobacco on that list as well - are we really trying? the earth is showing us that it will have to get rid of the #1 poison of the planet = humans.
Pituko, let's do this again when you get out of high school. Your remark on getting rid of humans merits no response. The other two listed drugs were the first on the scene, require little to no manufacturing, and are legal.(Alcohol's illegal in a few arab countries of course.) Tobacco should be illegal and perhaps some day will be. But those two aren't the topic. Cocaine is illegal everywhere but perhaps in Holland (which is a basket case). Cocaine can kill in a single over-dose. Cocaine is incredibly addictive (yes, so is tobacco. It took quite an effort to quit smoking 16 years ago.) Cocaine is conceivably controllable. It cannot be manufactured from various plants like alcohol. It requires a very complicated manufacturing process. The plant, unlike tobacco, grows in very limited regions of the world. I don't deny either that there are limited beneficial uses for coca (from the Yungas at least). But accordingto every source I've consulted, includingthe taxi drivers chewing leaf, Chapare coca is worthless for anything but drugs. Mr. Morales wants extensive planting f coca in the Chapare. He used to grow it himself in the Chapare. He knows what it will be used for, yet he claims a zero cocaine policy. He's got some good points outside of his coca platform, (and some gaping holes), but this one does not bear much scrutiny.
Common sense tells you they were growing it that long enough in sufficient quantities to satisfy the local market.
Again with the (western) "common sense". Get over it, Jim, the times they are a changing. Your post is either bait or you don't know much about Bolivia, so I will tell you that there is a large market for coca leaves in Argentina alone, and this has existed before Bolivians immigrated there in large numbers. Also, Evo has clearly stated that he wants a cato, of coca per family, not unlimited expansion. This will ensure the livelihood of tens of thousands of people, and in a controlled environment, do much more to stop the cocaine trade than the DEA ever has.
I have not heard a word about the democratic ideal of protection of minority rights from this new government.
Well, then you haven't been reading Bolivian newspapers.
Norman, maybe if you jog your memory for a moment and remember the Iran-Contra CIA cocaine smuggling scandal, you will get a feel for who is really responsible for the "drug problem". Try reading this: narconews.com/darkalliance One thing is for sure, impoverished coca farmers sure as heck aren't the bad guys here. I'm not trying to be high and mighty here, but to misunderstand the coca issue is pretty much to ignore the root of the geopolitical problem.
I think the IMF's debt forgiveness is a good thing, but I agree that it could be a wolf in sheeps clothing, and Bolivia needs to use its natural resources to generate cash instead of continuously increasing debt. One area I am very hopeful about for raising cash is customs and taxes. If Evo manages to cut down corruption, and I believe he truly wants to, both of these areas can begin to really help us stand on our feet. One of Venezuela's unsung victories under Chavez is to dramatically increase tax revenue. And with Evo's mandate, he can work with local "big business" to get their support in exchange for eliminating tax-exemptions for "informal business", a powerful, unionized sector behind which many nouveau rich hide.
A standard diversion from the point saying "but he started it". I don't care who started the drug problem. I care about stopping the cocaine flow at any and all links in the chain, including reducing demand, arresting the traffickers, and reducing supply. I have no problem with traditional use coca. Yungas coca is good for that and judging by the street price, there's plenty of it. A cato of coca per family in the Chapare is a cato of coca per family going to drug production.
I hope he can work some deals with big business and perhaps do something to reduce the rampant black market sales that avoid tax. That would be a start. His plan to increase the minimum wage is also good, although nearly doubling it may be a bit destabilizing. Let's see.
I don't care who started the drug problem
Fair enough. Although ultimately I think the world's drug problem can only be solved with legalization, Bolivia does have an obligation to reduce production.
But the way to do this is not by militarizing the Chapare and criminalizing farmers for following basic market economics. Though in many cases the difference between planting coca and bananas is a child's education in nearby Cochabamba, and not life or death, they can hardly be villanized for making such a choice.
Hopefully Evo will keep his word and commission a comprehensive and credible study of the actual Bolivian -and regional- coca market. Then, I would fully support the detainment of illegal coca farmers, as would most of the cocaleros. Who knows, maybe some of the money no longer going to the IMF could be used to build roads and make alternative development a reality.
Perhaps these 1st World countries need to look at the underlying issue of the whole cocaine problem i.e. the demand, instead of blaming it on the 3rd World suppliers. Without demand there will be no/less supply.
dude!
Leftist cannot say thank you IMF! ;-)
They will go a spin it instead. But Bolivians owe more to the others. But this is an non-ending cycle.
mmm...so, they lend us money, they force their policies to have a field day with leftists, and then they condone the debt. Fine by me! What is the problem with that? where are all this $$$$ going? some of them must be doing some good in Bolivia.
Yes, I do realize that reality shows Bolivia is an underdevelop country. Is it because we need more aid? I doubt it.
Now, the cycle can only be broken by the borrower. Dude! wait and see how Evo accepts aid the same way the other presidentes did.
Norman:
Simply in point of fact and from a physician's perspective, there exist innumerable legal drugs(e.g acetaminophen, diphenhydramine, psuedophedrine, etc.) that can "kill in a single overdose". Should one consider them dangerous? Perhaps their legality should be called into question? The responsibilities of consumption rest primarily upon the consumer; and the difference between use and abuse should not, in my humble opinion, be the concern of a Bolivian farmer.
Further, if criminalization must be practiced among first-world nations (a policy that I strongly oppose), then why not focus on drugs far more addictive and dangerous than cocaine (e.g. opiates, methamphetamines and tobacco)? While the dangers of tobacco are promulgated widely in our modern era, the mighty corporate dollar has a stake in its legal status. Were poppies and marijuana readily cultivated on US soil throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, would they too would enjoy legislative sympathy?
Similarly, there are a multitude of chemical and physical agents, in addition to behavioral practices, which have variable degrees of addictive quality. I will do my best as a father to impart to my children the capability of approaching and making good choices in life, but ultimately the decisions will be theirs.
If members of the G-8 and the IMF are so bent upon promoting free-market capitalism around the world, then I fail to understand where there is room for complaint when the products of such a system become disagreeable to them. And should Evo, upholding the ideology of his organization, utilize the proceeds of refined cocaine sales abroad to promote social and economic justice within Bolivia, then who among us should object?
Me... pick me! I'll object. Sorry, I was just coming down from my acetaminophen high. Do I really need to spell out the difference between Tylenol and Cocaine? Drug legalization has been tried. It leads to greater addiction higher welfare and higher crime. But that's a debate for another time. Citing other items that are addictive or bad does not make cocaine less bad. The point is cocaine = additive deadly drug = bad. I'm not worried about Mr. Morales trying to overtly market cocaine. That would be foolish, he knows it and he's no fool. I expect him to make a show at his zero cocaine policy and even a bit at "controlling" excessive coca cultivation.
You're right, Norman, this subject might best be broached elsewhere. So feel free to take pot-shots at my final statement without concern of reproach.
I am not familiar with any of the "drug legalization" trials about which you write, but would certainly be eager to review the data (particularly in regards to crime and drug use) that may have been drawn from them.
On the other hand, there are several places (e.g. Holland, Spain and Italy), where cannabinoids, opiates and cocaine are officially illegal, but where various degrees of nonenforcement policy exist. Drug addiction per capita in Amsterdam is rougly 600% lower than in Baltimore; and I for one certainly feel safer after midnight in the former (although I haven't spent more than two nights in the latter). I acknowledge that there are many reasons for these differences beyond drug policy alone, but to claim that higher crime ensues when drugs are decriminalized makes absolutely no sense! As a simple matter of operational definition, crime would decrease. In fact, one need look only as far back as the 18th Amendment to draw the [rational] conclusion that crime is actually worse, becoming more organized and more difficult to curtail, when substances are legally and executively prohibited.
viva el presidente
Anon, There's an good article called "Should We Legalize Drugs? History Answers" presenting both sides at http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/ah/1993/1/1993_1_41.shtml As to referencing US law (and the constition), these drugs were legal for quite some time in the US. The problems they caused for society are the reasons they are now illegal.
and yes, viva el presidente and God bless him and guide him. The best of the holidays to all.
I was expecting spinning from IMF's actions in this post; but debating drugs? Soo out of focus.
cocaina?
Dar al Cesar lo que es del Cesar, y al huEVO lo que es del EVO.
If youre going to give money just to forgive it later, why dont you eliminate the middle man and give it to the people directly, let see 4 billion divided by 8 million, thats 500 dollars for every man woman and child in Bolivia, Im prettty sure they can do a lot beter than the polititians so far. I read somewhere the micro credit enterprise funds do very well and the people pay back their loans.
Pituko:
The majority of Bolivia's cocaine goes to Europe and the rest of Latin America (which you call 1st world nations?)- not the U.S.
The "bloodthirsty" corporations that you speak of would be the leading foreign energy companies in Bolivia:
Repsol- Spain
Petrobras- Brasil
Total- France
BG Group- UK
And from the U.S.- Exxon Mobil is ZERO.
If Bolivia decides to nationalize, confiscate, and kick them out of Bolivia, it does not concern me. Such actions are why Bolivia has and will continue to have difficulty finding foreign investment. Bolivia has a reputation for repudiating contracts which goes back over 50 years. What good is any agreement with a nation that never honors its agreements?
The continuous road blockades do not encourage foreign investment either. Many foreign companies (not U.S., but Italy, Austria, etc.) have considered development projects to farm or manufacture for export, but changed their mind, because the blockades make exporting unreliable, because shipping schedules cannot be met when Bolivia is totally shutdown.
Ths U.S. really has little interest in Bolivia. The relationship has benefited Bolivia much more than the U.S. Bolivia has no significance as a market for U.S. exports; and has nothing the U.S. cannot get elsewhere. Why have any trade or diplomatic relations with Bolivia at all?
I personally believe that the U.S. should terminate the aid. U.S. has been spending annually: $150 million on coca eradication and $200 million in additional aid. They need to end it. That aid can be replaced by Chavez.
And here is a slogan for you:
AMERICANS GO HOME!
NO MORE YANKEE DOLLARS!
I like the ideas poster Jim proposes. Let smug superior Europe be flooded with drugs, something their only response to will be more socialist spending, driving their unproductive economies into the ground even as they keep on believing to the bitter end that money for such waste is bottomless. And keep Hugo Chavez occupied with propping up Bolivia in Uncle Sam's absence. Let Bolivia see what a cool efficient mechanism Mercosur is, and just how well it works instead of the hated [evil] U.S. Not to mention the great Cuban and Venezuelan consumer markets. Ought to be a plan.
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