Washington Week in Review

On Monday morning early I flew from La Paz to Washington and have been in a series of all day meetings all week, hence no action on the Blog. There is a huge interest in Bolivia here, as evidenced from the big turnouts for the two panel discussions I was part of here this week. The first was sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and the second by the Washington Office on Latin America.

Here are some developments and observations about the big question of how the new Bolivian government will get along with the powers that be here in Washington.

Bolivia's New Ambassador Designate

Last weekend I sat down for a coffee with Sacha Lorenti, a long-time friend (Sacha wrote the Spanish foreword to our IMF book), who was named a few days later by Evo Morales to be Bolivia's new ambassador to the US. The appointment still requires approval by both the Bolivian Senate and the US State Department, but neither should be a problem and Sacha should be taking up residence here in a few weeks.

Sacha is a super pick for this job. A lawyer, Sacha has served for the past several years as President of Bolivia's National Human Rights Assembly. He is well-respected on all sides in Bolivia, having served as a mediator in some of the most serious conflicts between the social movements and past Bolivian governments (including during Febrero Negro). He was also appointed by then-President Rodriguez a few months ago to serve on a national panel of "notables" to work out plans for a national constituent assembly.

He is in the process of studying up on the key issues that Bolivia and the US will need to negotiate and laying the groundwork for a successful representation of Bolivia here. I have had high-level conversations this week with both the Bolivia and US sides of this emerging relationship and it is clear that both governments would like to develop a good, not combative, working relationship. That is good news for everyone and Sacha's appointment contributes to that a good deal.

What to Watch For in the Months Ahead

From my meetings and conversations here in Washington and La Paz this week, here are the key issues to watch for as Bolivia and the Bush administration figure out how to deal with one another.

Is Evo Chavez? That is the first question that the powers that be are asking here. Will Evo Morales turn out to be a Bolivian version of the Venezuelan leader that is in such conflict (for good reason) with the Bush administration? I think that the answer is clearly no, and soon enough Washington will figure that out. As MAS leaders have said to me clearly, it isn’t in their strategic interest to just pick a fight with the US for sport, rhetorical or otherwise. To be clear, there will be tough issues to work out and the new Bolivian government will do that firmly but in good spirit.

Coca: The first policy issue that will get thrust into the center of the emerging Bolivia/US relationship will be coca. First, it really is the centerpiece of US policy in Bolivia. Second, it is the first issue where the Bush administration and US Congress will have to make an actual decision, with votes coming up in the Congress on foreign aid that is tied to the coca issue. Hopefully the US will take note that the Chapare region in Bolivia (the center of so much violent conflict over US policy) has been largely quiet for almost two years, the result of a slight relaxation of that war in which poor coca-growing families have been allowed to grow small family plots. To be clear, some of that coca goes for traditional uses and some for the illegal drug trade. The portions for each are in dispute and the US has a great tendency to exaggerate the latter. In reality, Bolivia ceased to be a major coca leaf source for the drug market a long time ago. Today it means more to the US as a supposed (and very debatable) symbol of the success of the "War on Drugs".

Debt Relief: Bolivia, thanks to the joint actions of US-backed governments and US-dominated international financial institutions, is a heavily indebted country. Today Bolivia borrows about a quarter of its annual national budget from foreign sources, more if you take into account borrowing for special projects. That translates into a lot of accumulated debt. The IMF recently made a decision to cancel a good deal of Bolivian debt and other programs to do so are in the works. Watch what happens with these now that Bolivia has a MAS-led government. First up, the Inter-American Development Bank.

A Reminder on my US Appearances

For those interested, I still have two more public talks before I return home to Cochabamba in a week. Here they are. If you are nearby, please join us:

NEW YORK: February 1st – 5:30 pm
Marymount College, 211 East 71st St. (between 2nd and 3rd Avenues)
The Regina Peruggi Room

ST. PAUL MINN: February 4th – 9am
Unity Unitarian Church, 732 Holly Avenue