Nixon to China, Evo to Chile

It is on this day, March 23rd, that Bolivians of all political stripes pause to remember one of the more painful moments in the nation's history – Bolivia's loss of its access to the sea, to Chile, on this date in 1879.

It is hard to understate what this means to people here. I've seen school children here carrying notebooks with slogans such as "We will take back our sea." On Bolivia's independence day, when schools mark events with children dressed in the traditional clothing of the nation's nine departments, I've seen a tenth costume added, a child adorned in black clothing and chains, representing "litoral", the lost department on Chile's coast. In La Paz, a whole museum is dedicated to the battle in which 135 Bolivian troops lost to a Chilean force four times its size and set the nation's destiny as a landlocked country.

For decades Bolivian presidents have repeated the rhetoric of recovering the nation's access to the Pacific Ocean – with a credibility roughly akin to US presidents declaring that, "We will end our nation's dependence on foreign oil." That said, I actually believe that Evo Morales has a shot at delivering the goods.

To be clear, I think there is no chance whatsoever that any Chilean government is going to pull out a map of that spaghetti-shaped country and lop off a piece of coastline and give it to Bolivia (though, it sure has plenty of coastline to spare). I do think, however, that there is a historic deal possible and that Morales may be the one who can pull it off.

That deal looks like this: Chile gives Bolivia unfettered access to a seaport from which it can step up its foreign exports and imports and Bolivia agrees to have a gas pipeline to the Pacific built through Chile instead of Peru.

A little recent history needs to be remembered. In October 2003, Bolivia exploded over plans by then-President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada to export Bolivia's natural gas to Mexico and the US via Chile. After Sanchez de Lozada presided over the killings of dozens of citizens he was ousted from office. The animosity of Bolivians toward Chile should not be underestimated (the two nations still do not have full diplomatic relations).

It is precisely because of this animosity toward Chile that Morales may be the Bolivian President who can convince his people to agree to a deal. It took that long-time anti-communist crusader, Richard M. Nixon, to open doors between the US and China. It will probably take a Bolivian leftist to get Bolivia's social movements to sign off on a gas export deal through Chile, and access to the sea is just the bargain that can sell it.

Morales' campaign for the sea begins in earnest today, with a mass public rally in La Paz. I was at a private meeting last month when Morales first explained his plans for the giant gathering of citizens in the city's historic Plaza San Francisco:

The Bolivian people will show their unity [behind the demand for access to the sea] the social movements, the high schools, members of parliament, members of city councils, the armed forces, the police, miners, indigenous people from the altiplano, intellectuals, everyone unified. And the message won't be to condemn Chile…but to send a message to the Chilean people [that the people of Bolivia want access to the sea].

There is a logic to the "ocean for a pipeline deal". What does it cost Chile to give its neighbor untaxed and unregulated access to a seaport? On the other side, the economics of gas pipelines is pretty clear – shorter is cheaper. And any quick glance at a map of South America makes it pretty clear that it is a lot shorter to get to the Pacific from Chile than Peru.

Two countries with new presidents. One with its first indigenous leader, the other with its first woman in the highest office in the land. Together, Morales and Chilean President Michelle Bachalet have an opportunity, not to reverse Bolivia's tragic loss 127 years ago, but to reverse it enough for both countries to move ahead and be better off for it.