Monday, April 03, 2006

LAB, Cochabamba Water, and the Dance of Public Protest and Public Policy

A confession – I am a schizophrenic. Well, in certain terms. I have always straddled the line between the worlds of public protest and advocacy on the one side and public policy making on the other. I’ve studied both, done both, and written about both (in The Democracy Owners’ Manual). While these two worlds are certainly related, they are also very clearly not the same worlds.

The dance between the two is at the heart of two of the most visible public battles in Bolivia’s recent history. One is happening right now – the battle to “nationalize” LAB Airlines. The other happened exactly six years ago this week – the Cochabamba Water Revolt.

Advocacy and protest is about two basic things – getting authorities to pay attention to issues they would rather not and getting them to change direction. Public Policy is about defining and implementing that change of direction in very precise ways. They are two different parts of democracy, they usually involve very different kinds of people and skills, and they are both equally legitimate and equally essential. They both need each other.

Cochabamba and its Water

The facts are basic. Bolivians never had any kind of public debate over whether to hand control their water over to foreign corporations before the government did just that under World Bank pressure. When Cochabambinos were furious at the result (50% rate increases overnight) the government not only refused to listen, it also used armed troops to try to keep people from protesting those rate hikes.

I believe it was Nelson Mandela who said, “You don’t choose your tactics, your opponents do.” In the case of Cochabamba, the government of Hugo Banzer and Tuto Quiroga made mass public protest and civil disobedience the only means by which the people could take back their water, something which remains a historic victory worthy of its reputation.

Well, then there was the tricky part – turning a romantic victory won on the street into a functioning and efficient public water company. That latter part of the story is pretty mixed.

SEMAPA, the re-established water company that took over after Bechtel’s ouster has, in fact, achieved some important things. In the first four years after the water revolt the new company connected up more than 55,000 new people to water service, an increase of 22%. That’s the good news. The bad news is that there are still tens of thousands of families who still don’t have water service. Cochabamba has almost doubled in population since the first time I moved here in 1991 and SEMAPA has a long, long way to go in catching up with that population growth.

Some of the problem is the difficulty of financing water development, but some of it is about inefficiency as well. SEMAPA just isn’t that well managed and it owes the public better, especially given the sacrifices made to win back public control of water. Kicking out Bechtel and effectively managing a public water company are two different tasks and the leaders of the first were never going to be the ones to achieve the second. They city’s public leaders and professionals still haven’t risen to the task. The leaders of the water revolt haven’t adequately held their feet to the fire to do so.

LAB and “Nationalization”

Six years later history is echoing in the battle over LAB Airlines. Protests have once again erupted in Cochabamba, this time by airline workers demanding that President Evo Morales “nationalize” the airline that privatization has left lying on its deathbed and mired in debt.

Advocacy Rule #1: First you get their attention, then you press your demands.

The Morales government wanted the LAB problem to go away, or at least to land somewhere else than square in its political lap. Landing in its political lap, however, was pretty much inevitable. LAB is a staple of the Bolivian economy, the government owns almost half the company, and an administration elected to care about the people’s well-being doesn’t get to stand off to one side while 2,200 jobs threaten to go up in smoke. That it took protests to get Morales to see that is Morales’ problem. He and the people around him should have known better.

That said, then comes the tricky part. What should the government do about an airline that is just plane in bad economic shape? Morales is right to be apprehensive about any deal that leaves the government holding the bag for LAB’s more than $140 million reported debt. What does nationalization actually mean when it gets translated from slogan on the street to public policy in action? Does Bolivia become majority owner and manager of the airline (as it was for many years)? Does it manage the restructuring of the airline and then leave it in private ownership? These are really complicated issues to tear apart and look at and you don’t make public policy until you do that – if you are wise.

Public Protest vs. Public Policy

In my view it boils down to this. The protests over water six years ago this week and the protests over LAB today are both important because they forced reluctant governments to deal with legitimate public demands. On the other hand, there is a cautionary tale here for both.

The wave of public interest and involvement in water in 2000 never got converted into educated and long-term public oversight of the new water company. In the last public vote to elect members of the water company board, three percent of the population turned out. In the battle over LAB, those protesting need to apply some real world economics as they evaluate the options on the table. Both Bolivia and the thousands of Bolivian families that rely on LAB for their livelihoods need an airline that is economically sustainable, not one built on hope and unsustainable subsidies.

Without protest, governments often just pretend real problems aren’t there. Without a commitment to solid public policy and public management, those protests often fail to deliver the goods. That’s not just true in Bolivia.

36 Comments:

Anonymous R2 said...

I think we need to keep the focus in one point, a very important one: water supply is a public service, is a human right, it is vital for human life, for the economy of a city, of a country. A commercial airline is not a “public service” when the income of most of the population is well below the prize of an airline ticket. It just doesn’t make sense. That LAB has a special place in Bolivian history is one thing, but the real need to keep an airline that is just broken doesn’t exist.

Jim talks about “legitimate public demands”, the only legitimate demand I see in the LAB problem is the one of the workers. But, how can be the concern of 2,200 workers a “public demand”? Do they represent a big part of Bolivia? Of Cochabamba? I doubt it. I wonder the connections between Olivera, the Democracy center and LAB workers. I am sure Bolivians (or Cochabambinos, which I am a proud one) can kick out any company, foreign or national. As I said previously, we are very good at protesting, burning tires, blocking the streets and the public rights. But there is much more than that.

Jim certainly points this. The easy part was to kick Bechtel out, but now the tricky part is “turning a romantic victory won on the street into a functioning and efficient public water company”. Is not this LAB nationalization just romantic? Just as a sample, the word “battle”, isn’t it clear that it will move a lot of memories in the people. Why to use it over and over. Is it really a battle? Who are the parts involved? LAB workers, Asbun, the government, Jim?

I am sure if we start using the word “battle” and we start saying “LAB is ours”, “No one will take it away from the people”, “LAB belongs to Bolivians and not to foreign companies”, we will win it back. You just need to move some small feelings in Bolivians and they can overthrow a government (remember exporting Gas by Chile?). But, what next?

And the “secret” is simple. And the “secret” applies to SEMAPA and to LAB, the secret is called Economics. There is no way SEMAPA will be efficient if: a) it doesn’t charge tariffs according to its expenses or b) if it doesn’t have a subside (whether from the Government, the IBD, or the Democracy Center). In the case of LAB, if your costs are high, and your demand low, you will not succeed! You don’t need to be a genius to see that airlines are not profitable in Bolivia, because only a small part of the population uses them. That is the plain and simple true.

And we really don’t need another battle. We need to work to make this country better, so one day more people can afford to fly.

5:38 AM  
Blogger Jonathan said...

"While these two worlds are certainly related, they are also very clearly not the same worlds."

Ok. So I guess you forgot to teach that little lesson to Evito % Co.

Unless you are just discovering (or articulating) what conservatives have known and advocated for years.

1:02 PM  
Anonymous Paul V said...

"The facts are basic. Bolivians never had any kind of public debate over whether to hand control their water over to foreign corporations before the government did just that under World Bank pressure."

There might not have been any debate but Bolivians got to choose their government. Just because there wasn't public debate doesn't make what the Bolivian government did immoral.

As for LAB, who is owed the $140 million? If LAB disappeared tomorrow, who would have to write off the debt? If LAB and all of its planes went poof, would another private enterprise be willing to replace the lost capacity? If so, then at least some of the 2,200 jobs would be retained. If not, then the 2,200 jobs must be considered surplus. If LAB was subsidized by the Bolivian government, whether nationalized or not, how would this be fair to private competitors like AeroSur?

"Does it manage the restructuring of the airline and then leave it in private ownership?" This is what an American court would do. If the Bolivian government is the entity on the hook for the $140 million, then it has to decide if it is better to cut its losses now or gamble that it won't continue to incur more losses in the future.

I took a quick look at water and sewer connection fees here in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The smallest "connection" fee is $2,350 for water and $2,160 for sewer. The cheapest water meter is about $400, with radio transmitter required. The minimum water service "tap" fee, if dug by the utility, is $5,300. Sewer "tap" fees are $455 for sanitary sewer and storm sewer each. I suspect the cost of the materials and machinery used exceeds the cost of the labor involved, but Bolivian costs would presumably be less. Still, these are the costs before a single drop of water is delivered. If Cochabambinos aren't paying these bills, is it any wonder SEMAPA has difficult fulfilling their requirements? Or should poor management be blamed?

I recently saw an article that noted that if oil stays over $50 a barrel, Venezuela's oil reserves already exceed those of Saudi Arabia, in fact of all Arabia. Chavez is asking that OPEC admit this publicly. The article declared that he would work to keep oil prices high in order to use the money to pay for community development. Not a bad plan. Maybe we will all be flying Venezuelan airlines soon.

2:00 PM  
Blogger Originalexplorer said...

Jonathan-
I dont think being snide and self-satisfied contributes much to the discussion.

You suggest that conservatives have long been advocating a balance between the world of protest and the world of policy "advocacy."

I dont know what conservatives you are talking about, but certainly I see most conservative intellectuals or policy makers acting scornfully or at best in a paternalistic fashion towards public protest.

Anyway,
It seems to me that pushing the water and LAB together is misleading because whereas water is a human right, airlines are a luxury. The development of sustainable water infrastructure and service should be subsidized. LAB, on the other hand, doesn't seem like it make sense to try to rehabilitate, given the factors people have discussed above. Nevertheless, there should and probably are recourses that the government could take to compensate the laid off workers. For example, if the past and current owners of LAB have sacked and ruined the company they should be forced to compensate their employees generously.

I do find Jim's dichotemy between the "worlds" of protest and policy making troublesome, from the perspective of someone who firmly believes in self-management (not that self-management doesn't have problems, as apparently SEMPA shows). I think this seperates things into "the people" who protest and have demands and then "the policy wonks," aka technocrats who are supposed to represent "the people's" interests, but tend to be (consciously or not) more concerned with perpetuating the existance of their class status. I guess I am getting at the difference between participation and representation. In the case of Bolivia and elsewhere there isn't enough of either. Also I don't want to suggest that there aren't dedicated smart policy makers outthere, I guess I am just a bit suspicious of completely religating the "world" of protest to a passive role when it comes to actually drawing up and implementing policy.

-cheers
Alex

2:11 PM  
Blogger Originalexplorer said...

Paul,
Do you think you could provide a link to that article?
-Alex

3:06 PM  
Anonymous Paul V said...

Chavez rules out return to cheap oil

3:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is one major difference no acknowledged in this post-- water is essential for everyone to have. It is a puplic expenditure for purposes of general health, and itmust take a loss if needed. Now in terms of LAB, yes it is true that Bolivia needs a reliable airline to operate within its borders and to bring commerce and tourism in, although it is not true that simply becuase you now have a job with this airline ou should be able to keep it. There is a reason why its in the economic shape its in, and that is giving in to the workers. If Evo had some cajones, he would take over the management of the company and cut its losses (namely those 2,000 or so jobs, seeing that LAB has the highest ratio of workers to flights in the world) and save that money for essential public goods like water. Water is essential and if a loss is taken to provide the service, so be it. On the other hand, a functional airiline is needed, not those 2,000 unnecessary jobs. Do it Evo, show em what you really stand for... cause cmon, i dont blame the private management, cause when has private firm in Bolivia ever recently, successfully cut 2,000 jobs- they cant, they will be murdered.
jeff

8:38 PM  
Blogger Jonathan said...

good to get the ball rolling again.

Boliviscopio has a nicely written and well balanced commentary:

http://boliviscopio.blogspot.com/2006/04/lab-aerolnea-en-picada.html

later

10:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tar sands: Not so easy, …
Although a bit sidetracked from the main subject, for which I apologize. To Paul and Alex: I suggest, you also check the negative side of producing “Tar sands”.
As a sample, I include two links worth checking:

http://www.energybulletin.net/7331.html

"The tar sands are clearly the worst type of oil for the atmosphere," says Steven Hazell of the Sierra Club of Canada.

----------------------------

http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/default/tech_papers/17th_congress/3_1_04.asp
2. The Orinoco oil belt : an historical perspective of the resources
Located in eastern Venezuela, the Orinoco oil belt (or Faja del Orinoco) is one of the largest known accumulation of bitumen in the world, estimated to be around 1,200 Gb of hydrocarbons in place. This accumulation is not accounted for in traditional << oil reserves >> evaluations as its production was not deemed to be commercially profitable, until recently, due to its adverse characteristics :
- very high gravity (8 to 10 ° API)
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- high metal contents (Vanadium, Nickel)
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A first phase of evaluation of the physical resources in place occurred between 1936 and 1958 when around sixty exploration wells were drilled in these deposits (by Exxon, Shell, Socony, and others).
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A key to the full realization of the production potential of these ultra heavy oil reserves will be technology, and more precisely how to find methods allowing to improve recovery rates at acceptable costs and without excessive energy consumption, which would go against worldwide efforts to control the emissions of carbon dioxide.

12:59 PM  
Anonymous Paul V said...

Could someone translate this part? Thanks.

Volviendo a la crisis del LAB cabe recordar que en 1995, según los términos de referencia de la capitalización el valor de los activos de la empresa ascendía a $us 134.4 millones, pero que su valor en libros era sólo de $us 25 millones. Dentro del proceso de capitalización el LAB fue adjudicado a la empresa Viacáo Aérea Sao Paulo S.A. (VASP) que ofreció $us 47.4 millones de dólares por el 50 por ciento de las acciones. El otro 50 por ciento se distribuyó entre las AFPs (48) y los trabajadores (2). Así, la aerolínea bandera boliviana pasó a manos del grupo brasileño Canhedo.

Sobre la gestión de la VASP el matutino “La Prensa” informa hoy que “Desde 1995 los capitalizadores no entregaron ni un solo centavo a favor de los bolivianos, según los informes de los administradores de fondos de pensiones Futuro de Bolivia y Previsión BBV. Por ,el contrario, el estado de ganancias y pérdidas muestra que la entidad perdió más de $us 14 millones el 1999; 7.4 millones en 2000; en 2001 no presentó balances; en 2003 lo hizo pero bajó su patrimonio a sólo dos millones de dólares”.

El 16 de noviembre de 2001 Ernesto Asbún aparece como accionista mayoritario del LAB (51 %), tras acuerdo entre bambalinas con Wagner Canhedo, presidente de la VASP. Según Asbún, actualmente sobre sus acciones pesan dos anotaciones preventivas, una de la VASP que reclama un saldo no pagado por la compra que hizo Asbún, y otra de las AFPs por aportes laborales retenidos y no transferidos a los fondos de pensiones.

1:22 PM  
Anonymous Pablo Alvestegui said...

For Paul V:

Back to the LAB crisis, it should be remembered that in 1995, according to the capitalization's reference terms, the value of the company's active assets rose to 134.4 million USD, but that it's value in the books was only 25 million. Within the capitalization process LAB was sold to Viacao Aerea Sao Paulo (VASP) which offered 47.4 million dollars for 50% of the stock. The other 50% was distributed among the AFPs (48) and the workers (2). Thus, the bolivian flagship airline passed to hands of the brazilian Canhedo group.

About the VASP administration, the daily newspaper "La Prensa" informs today that "Since 1995 the capitalizers did not submit a single cent in favor of the bolivians, according to reports from the pension funds administrators Futuro de Bolivia and Previsión BBV. On the contrary, the state of profit and loss shows that the company lost more than 14 million i 1999, 7.4 million in 2000, in 2001 they did not turn in their balances; in 2003 they did but their patrimony went down to only two million dollars".

On November 16 2001, Ernesto Asbun appears as LAB's mayor stockholder (51%), after a bahind the scenes agreement with Wagner Canhedo, VASP's president. According to Asbún, currently his stock have two preventive "Annotations?" (don't know the exact term)", one by VASP that claims an unpaid balance for the Asbún purchase, and another by the AFP's for laboral apportations retained and not transferred to the pension funds."

Hope this helps.

2:40 PM  
Anonymous Reque said...

LAB's situation is not the privatization's fault, it is not because it went to private hands, or because some neoliberal forze decided to put the airline in backupcy as die hard leftist like Jim are trying to conclude.

The fault is actually the leftist irrationality that love to strike under any excuse for political gain.

How many planes does LAB have today for normal operation? ...no more than 20! We also know there are 2200 employees...so, 110 people is needed for a plane to operate?

I don't think so! ...anyone expert on this knows the answer?

Say Asbun, or whomever CEO wants to fire people from LAB because they are not needed? Say they want to sell or trash the 727 planes and lease 737 planes that spend half the gasoline. if you lease a plane, you don't need as many people for maintainance.

In other words, if all these actions would be taken to improve LAB (before or after capitalization) the unions in LAB would protest. But in Bolivia you have the domino effect...as seen before, then the "cocaleros" get involved, then the teachers, Universities, huge etc here...all for the LAB "social rights" plus their own demands.

You see, just because LAB is part of the government, and is considered by the trouble makers as a "public" company...they go on blockades every time an improvement is needed.

Is Asbun that bad CEO? what other companies did he have in the past? wasn't he the owner of the beer company, Taquina?

Private companies do have their unions, they go into strikes, but they hardly ever escalate into something big....why?

Because it will not provide a political benefit to the trouble makers, irrational leftist ofcourse.

Reque

4:11 PM  
Blogger Trabajadores LAB said...

If you want more information on LAB, visit http://trabajadoreslab.blogspot.com

¡Viva el Lloyd Aéreo Boliviano!

12:09 PM  
Blogger Trabajadores LAB said...

If you want more information about the LAB conflict, visit http://trabajadoreslab.blogspot.com

¡Viva el Lloyd Aéreo Boliviano!

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