Saturday, May 13, 2006

Bolivia, Gas and the Media: In the Eye of the Beholder

It is safe to say that Bolivia has rarely been in the international press as much as it has been since President Morales’ May 1 decree calling for “nationalization” of the country’s oil and gas. News outlets big and small have jumped on the story and continue to give it daily coverage.

That is good news and bad news.

It is good news because it is indeed an important story, for Bolivia, for Latin America and for all energy using nations – which pretty much means everybody. It is bad news because not all the coverage has been accurate or insightful. The Democracy Center is working on a review of the recent news coverage – good, bad, and ugly – that we hope to have posted early next week. Meanwhile, I thought these two news stories that came out today illustrate how much subjectivity is involved in how this story is being reported, a reminder to be careful about believing everything you read on this issue.

Today’s topic: Are Bolivia and Brazil in the midst of a diplomatic meltdown over the Morales decree on gas (as we have noted earlier, Brazil’s national gas company, Petrobras, is the major foreign corporate player in Bolivia’s energy sector)?

Here’s how AP reported it this morning:

Brazil-Bolivia Relations Continue South

SAO PAULO, Brazil - Relations between Brazil and Bolivia sank to their lowest point in a century Friday, as the two sparred over Bolivia's nationalization of its energy sector and threats to seize Bolivian land held by Brazilian farmers. [Read the rest of the article here.]

And here is how Reuters reported the story this morning, on CNN’s Web site:

Brazil, Bolivia Ease Energy Tension

VIENNA, Austria (Reuters) -- The presidents of Brazil and Bolivia met on Saturday and toned down a row caused by Bolivia's decision to nationalize its energy sector, a key source of gas used in Brazil. [Read the rest of the article here.]

I am not criticizing either of these articles, but simply drawing attention that getting to the facts is no simple thing.

33 Comments:

Anonymous eduardo said...

They differ because the situation is constantly developing and taking many turns. The AP story was written after the events of the week ending on Friday.

The Reuters article was written after a Saturday morning breakfast meeting where it appears as if there was some "easing of tension."

It makes sense that headlines are different because the Saturday morning breakfast meeting added new developments from what was written during the week.

1:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Medios de comunicación, con terceras intenciones

Por su parte, Morales negó que se haya referido a Petrobras en la conferencia de prensa que ofreció el jueves y acusó a la prensa de propiciar un clima de confrontación entre Bolivia y Brasil. “Dije que investigaremos si las empresas petroleras pagan o no pagan sus impuestos, si hacen o no contrabando (...) Todo eso está sujeto a investigación. Yo dije que hay denuncias contra algunas empresas, no hablé de Petrobras”, remarcó.\\
“Si algunos medios de comunicación, con terceras intenciones, quieren enfrentarnos, quieren colocarme contra el compañero Lula, eso no va a suceder (porque hay) muchas coincidencias con el compañero Lula, un dirigente sindical, hoy Presidente, que respeto y admiro mucho. Lamento -dijo- si algunos medios de comunicación dijeron que Petrobras es contrabandista”, afirmó el Presidente

5:20 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bachelet defends Morales and Chavez, indirectly mocks Bush

President Michelle Bachelet defended fellow Latin American leaders Evo Morales and Hugo Chavez Wednesday and asked world leaders not to “demonize” Latin America.

Bachelet is in Europe to attend the European Union and Latin America and Caribbean summit in Vienna on May 11 to 13.

“I would not want us to return to the Cold War era where we ‘demonize’ one country or another. What we have witnessed in these countries (Bolivia and Venezuela) is that they are looking for governments and leaders that will work to eradicate poverty and eliminate inequality,” said Bachelet...

See http://www.mercopress.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=7861

5:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Media Notes: Coverage of Bolivia’s Gas Re-nationalization

UpsideDownWorld
Wednesday, 10 May 2006

Those who have followed US and European press coverage of Bolivian President Evo Morales haven’t been surprised by mainstream coverage of Morales’ move to re-nationalize Bolivia’s natural gas fields, just disappointed.

The Financial Times’ Hal Weitzman kicks off his review of Morales’ action by lamenting: "Since Evo Morales took power in Bolivia at the end of January, his government has often seemed like an administration in search of an economic policy."

Weitzman later quotes an unnamed "Western diplomat" who said, "The government does is driven by political ideology. The instinct of nationalism has trumped any economic plan."

The FT knows that the best way to discredit an opponent's strategy is to deny that one exists. Bush and the mainstream media are involved in a massive effort to paint the ideological roots of Latin American resistance to US-imposed free trade policies as "populist," haphazard, "nationalist," and now, unplanned.

For its part, the Washington Post has been fomenting fears with headlines like, "Crisis Feared Over Bolivia Gas Takeover"…their spin on the story accents divisions between lite-leftists Kirchner and Lula and the Chavez and Morales, who favor "socialism," according to another Post story..

This, despite the fact, as the Post duly reports, [Chavez and Morales] embraced before heading into the session. At the end, there were hugs all round. Lula said the meeting should reassure investors." And that, "Emerging from the meeting, Morales, Kirchner, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez were keen to stress that solidarity…"

A solid look at the story reveals that the only "crisis" is how Bolivia is going to pay for the transition to full re-nationalization, something that Chavez has offered to finance.

A suprisingly responsible view comes to us from Daniel Altman the International Herald Tribune, who reports in Managing Globalization that most transnational oil companies, including Petrobras, have diversified their holdings specifically to be able to shoulder political changes that affect operations:

"Petróleo Brasileiro, the Brazilian energy giant, has operations in 16 countries, said its chief financial officer, Almir Guilherme Barbassa. Bolivian gas is an important resource for Brazil, but it's not such an important source of Petrobras's profit, probably just a few percentage points."

Barbassa also explained that Petrobras figures in "self-insurance" in their overall operating costs. According to the story,

"Self-insurance works like a medical savings account or a rainy day fund: You contribute to it over time, and you dip into it when you need it.

"’When we are going to evaluate a new project in a country, we add to the capital cost we expect from that project some basis points or some additional cost of capital to cover the political risk,’ said Barbassa."

Hmmm…enough to make you wonder, "Where’s all the ‘crisis’?"

Finally, CNN, in the ultimate "Who me?", published a story on Tuesday that portrays Morales as a paranoid conspiracy theorist who is worried about "Political critics and landowners allied with an [sic] ‘international mafias that own media outlets…’" As if neo-liberalism had no defenders! The story then chides that Morales, "presented no evidence for the accusations or for similar ones he made against the foreign energy companies in February."

Maybe the Pres didn’t present evidence then and there but, last we at UpsideDownWorld.org checked, that gathering and presenting evidence is what news reporters are supposed to do—not wait for it to be handed to them on a plate. Remember Colin Powell’s speech at the UN? Would have been nice to follow up on that "evidence" before sounding the war sirens.

CNN would have you believe that Bolivian people, who elected Morales largely because of his commitment to strike better deals with transnationals gas companies, had no valid complaints against the transnationals

5:45 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

Nice spin there Jimbo.

First you say it is all smoke and mirrors for negotiation - nothing to do with bad relations b/ween Bolivia and Brazil. And, this has nothing to do with Chavez.

Now you simply say -- "well it is complicated."

The bottom line here is that there is a row. Evo, arguably is in the middle of a tug of war between Chavez and Lula. He pissed off Lula by meeting Chavez and Fidel and then announcing the dramatic nationalization. He made Lula look stupid at home, after Lula went to pains to engage Evo in dialogue
Chavez has become a major irritation in South America. He is torpedoing South American integration, something which Brazil wants, and he is trying to kill deals with the European community and individual deal b/ween Peru, Colombia and the US.

The problem for Evo in all this, is that he is increasingly being seen by people even in Latin America's left as under Chavez' spell.
How else to explain him blowing off any negotiation for trade agreements with the US, whose value is over 300 million dollars, and for annoying the hell out of Lula and Zapatero who should be among the country's biggest friends.

6:33 PM  
Anonymous guillermo said...

Bolnica, the master of disinformation, spews out his trash again.

If you are not connected to the gas industry some way, Bolnica, then you have no excuse for your bizarre commentary.

Bolnica, as Reuters reported in its Saturday dispatch, which Jim links to, Lula said in reference to the media fabricated conflict between Bolivia and Brazil "there was a lot of smoke and not very much fire."

Can you read, or rather, as I have already stated, you read only what you want to know to fit with your disinformation campaign.

And Chavez torpedoing South American integration? Thats ass backwards. He is the one most pushing for South American integration in the region. Everyone who truly knows anything about today's politics in the region knows you are spinning tall tales.

9:25 PM  
Anonymous guillermo said...

jim, great post. i look forward to your critique of the media coverage of bolivia's gas nationalization effort.

the cia could not have dreamed of paying for a more manipulated, skewed coverage of the issue. i ask myself whats at the root of that. for one, i think the mainstream media is relying on conservative analysts who still refuse to accept that the neoliberal formula has failed and is bad policy for the region. second, i think journalists are afraid to veer off from their editors views, which nine times out of ten in the mainstream media toe the washington consensus line. third, just plain ignorance. fourth, the media loves to dramatize things. and five, just insufficient reporting combined with bad analysis. six, in some cases its the case of editors wanting "balanced" reporting, which ken silverstein, the award winnign los angeles times reporter and now washington editor at harpers once complained about so eloquently:
"I am completely exasperated by this approach to the news,” Silverstein wrote. “The idea seems to be that we go out to report but when it comes time to write we turn off our brains and repeat the spin from both sides.”

9:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

As the saying goes:

"That's not the news. That's the coverup."

9:48 PM  
Blogger |3run0 said...

The reaction here in Brazil to the events in Bolivia has been a roller coaster, so headlines anouncing that Lula is all smiles one day and pissed off the next are only reflecting what is going on.

Also note that in neither country all the officials are saying exaclty the same thing, in the same tone and at the same time. At any given day Morales may say ´sorry, but no´, his HC minister may say ´Hell, no!´. and the head of YPFB may hint that ´no, but..´. Lula, Amorim and Petrobras of course react in slightly different ways, and confusion ensues as one tries to figure out who is reacting to what from whom.

In other news, Bayer´s stock skyrockets as Aspirin consumption soars...

10:01 PM  
Blogger |3run0 said...

Being slightly more serious this time, here is a brief summary of the reaction here in Brazil to Bolivia´s actions.

When the decree was announced, there was a great deal of confusion. Lula was reportedly hurt that he wasn´t told in advance, but nontheless directed the governmet to project calm and confidence that things would be settled amicably. He also stressed that tha Brazil accepted Bolivia´s right to control its own natural resources, without going into specifics. Petrobras was more combative, but eventualy fell in line. The reaction from the press (with the exception of Folha de Sao Paulo, IMHO) was rediculously predictable, with praise turning into execration as one went across the political spectrum, irrespective of the facts on the ground.

As time passed, the discussion focused on whether and by how much Petrobras would be compensated for the assets that would be incorporated by YPFB; and also the (arguibly more crucial) future price of the Gas sold to Brazil. The bolivians sent some mixed signals on both accounts, the Brazilian government´s reaction was very concialiatory, Petrobra´s not so much.

On Thursday Petrobras staff met with their YPFB counterparts, and left convinced a satisfactory compromise on the price of Gas was very close.

On Friday EM gave a lenghty interview*, in which he attacked Petrobras. Lula was very pissed and after some hesitation Celso Amorim issued a conmdenation.

On Saturday Evo backtracked somewhat, calling Patrobras a ´partner´, and blamed any misunderstnding on the press. Lula duly reiterated his undying love for Evo and the Bolivian people.

_________________
* In which he showed an admirable willingness to answer hard questions in a cogent and relatively bullshit-free fashion. This stands in harsh contrast to both Lula and Chavez

10:42 PM  
Anonymous eduardo said...

Guillermo,

And Chavez torpedoing South American integration? Thats ass backwards. He is the one most pushing for South American integration in the region. Everyone who truly knows anything about today's politics in the region knows you are spinning tall tales.

As someone who supports the nationalization, I am very worried about the doble discurso of Chavez. If you remember, he originally left Bolivia out of the original gasoducto, threatening to sell gas to Brasil at a price much lower than Bolivia. He also supported Insulza for the OAS head, even after dreaming of swimming in a Bolivian ocean one day. We all know he is becoming the most influential leader in South America, but his actions puzzle me, whether he truly wants continental integration.

11:06 PM  
Blogger davidgura said...

What do you think of NPR's coverage?

12:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was watching the British Chanel Four and catched the last 2 minutes of a couple of analysts talking about Chavez' visit to the UK. It was something he said, the male analyst. He said that he respected other latinamerican politicians (rather than Chavez) who work for a more european-styled democracy in their countries, he mentioned Lula and Kirchner - not Evo, of course. So, we are judged for trying to run our contries in a latinamerican way! I am still not sure to what point I like Chavez or not, probably because I find it so hard to know what he is really up to; I do like, though, how he stands up to the US, among other things. So when I see (on the BBC) Blair saying that he hopes Bolivia and Venezuela will manage their resources responsibly, I wonder what that means. Responsibly for who? should we be responsible in order to maintain the developed world's way of life? isnt that what Blair is talking about? I wouldnt expect him to really care about the faith of the Bolivians...
So the BBC hasnt been any different in its coverage to the above mentioned media. The thing is, for so many years, Bolivia has been run by people that want to have a 'european way of life' and that translates into a 'european country'. Well wake up to the news! Bolivia is not in Europe! and that goes just as well to people like Boli-nica, Bolivia Libre and others... we are bolivians, and we should know better. Remember when Goni was accused of saying that being bolivian was like being in love with an ugly woman? I think most of you are in that situation - and many people, bolivians, are too. I think, Evo, he isnt.

3:23 PM  
Blogger Darrell said...

A commentator mentioned it but didn't stress it, so I will. I think the media tries to make everything look more dramatic, more urgent, more conflict-ridden than it is in order to sell more newspapers or air time. It's in their self-interest to make the story look bigger than it is. Evo's nationalization looks pretty moderate to me, but moderate is good. If he keeps on track, does a fair job of accounting and then compensating the companies and ends up with the same investment, no civic or external unrest, and more money to run Bolivia everyone will love him. I think he's on the right path.

10:38 PM  
Blogger mcentellas said...

I'm still waiting to see a Democracy Center opinion on transfering the BONOSOL money into YPFB coffers. I've been waiting to hear about that for a while.

And what ever happened to Evo's decree that ALL state employees (party members or not) hand over 5% of their paychecks to MAS?

Stuff like that I find interesting.

12:24 AM  
Anonymous Condor satinador said...

“It is good news because it is indeed an important story, for Bolivia, for Latin America and for all energy using nations – which pretty much means everybody. It is bad news because not all the coverage has been accurate or insightful”.

“Meanwhile, I thought these two news stories that came out today illustrate how much subjectivity is involved in how this story is being reported, a reminder to be careful about believing everything you read on this issue.”

The AP story had to do with the Brazilian foreign minister WORDS about the Bolivian issue and the response to these issues by the Bolivian executive. The Reuters story had to do with what Evo SAID and Lula’s response. Yes, the same topic and different actors; either you and your Venezuelan friend, Guillermo, do not understand Spanish or just want to have a lame excuse for the time the Democracy Center begins to repress the media; in coordination to the current Bolivian government, off course.

In defense of you and Guillermo, there are similitude’s that could have confuse you, Lula and his minister both have beards, and Evo and his minister are both criollos that look like should look an “Indigenous Bolivian” in the eyes off the foreign press.

Yes, Jim, we will “be careful about believing everything we read on this issue” in your blog.

1:42 PM  
Anonymous guillermo said...

well, i am not venezuelan. condorita, you are a joke. its somewhat humorous to see you struggle with thought processes but for everyones benefit why don't you first learn how to read and write.

centellas, don't know anything about the paycheck decree, but as for bonosol, nothing is going to happen to it, the state will continue the bonosol program, alvaro garcia linera said the following in a may 2 television interview:

Yo digo lo siguiente: nuestros abuelitos, los ancianos que reciben su Bonosol anualmente, no tienen de qué preocuparse, el Bonosol está garantizado en su pago. Las acciones de YPFB que estaban en manos de las AFPs, anualmente, entregaban cierta cantidad de dinero 20, 30 millones para el Bonosol, esos 30 o 20 millones anualmente entregados por las acciones de YPFB en las AFPs se garantizan, las acciones de YPFB que ahora están en manos del Estado han de seguir entregando anualmente la misma cantidad que antes entregaban, cuando estaban en manos de las AFPs. Por lo tanto, ningún anciano tiene de qué preocuparse, va a seguir yendo a recoger religiosamente a su dinero al banco, no tiene por qué temer, el Estado boliviano garantiza el pago permanente, sistemático del Bonosol.
Yo digo lo siguiente: nuestros abuelitos, los ancianos que reciben su Bonosol anualmente, no tienen de qué preocuparse, el Bonosol está garantizado en su pago. Las acciones de YPFB que estaban en manos de las AFPs, anualmente, entregaban cierta cantidad de dinero 20, 30 millones para el Bonosol, esos 30 o 20 millones anualmente entregados por las acciones de YPFB en las AFPs se garantizan, las acciones de YPFB que ahora están en manos del Estado han de seguir entregando anualmente la misma cantidad que antes entregaban, cuando estaban en manos de las AFPs. Por lo tanto, ningún anciano tiene de qué preocuparse, va a seguir yendo a recoger religiosamente a su dinero al banco, no tiene por qué temer, el Estado boliviano garantiza el pago permanente, sistemático del Bonosol.
(from:
http://www.vicepres.gov.bo/prensa/marc_vpr.asp?id=200605031&p=5 )

eduardo: despite the comments from some of the rightwing crew in this blog, i am not a fan of chavez. mainly, i am concerned about some authoritarian moves in his rule (i.e. his stacking the courts there with his allies) and the lack of a workable development policy. venezuela needs to diversify its economy and create new jobs, and chavez has done little toward that. its oil boom will not last forever. but i also do not think chavez is as radical as he is made out to be (he is presiding over a mixed economy, is holding elections, and all the freedoms we have come to appreciate seem to be protected). i do not think he is a threat to the us or anyone else in the region. as for his double discourse, thats pretty much par for the course for most politicians. evo, lula, kirchner, they all engage in that on occasion. still, i think its pretty clear chavez wants a united south america. for one, he is a huge devotee of the legendary simon bolivar, perhaps the first to dream of a united south america. second, chavez has selfish reasons, he wants a united south america to counter the influence of the united states in the region.

8:42 PM  
Blogger mcentellas said...

Guillermo:

The 5% of public employees paychecks going to a MAS bank account was reported in La Razon here:

http://www.la-razon.com/versiones/20060412_005509/nota_247_275268.htm

As for the BONOSOL. I'm skeptical. Why? YPFB has a long long long track record as one of the most corrupt of the state-owned enterprises. That could change, but the track record is disturbing. Add to that the fact that just before the order (which is so far the only actual assets to change legal ownership), YPFB directors complained that the company was capital-starved for future projects. Now, if YPFB invests badly, and loses that money, the BONOSOL is gone. If YPFB undertakes risk-sharing (which I think nationalization implies), they'll probably use the BONOSOL money. I think Evo's assuming taht YPFB turns a profit (and it was notorious in the 1970s-1980s for running huge deficits), and can prerve & expand the BONOSOL money. I hope so, too. But it's a big risk. Essentially, Evo is doing something like this: Imagine if a US president suggested taking the country's Social Security money and investing it in industrial ventures run by the government. The idea itself makes me cringe w/ worry.

9:25 PM  
Blogger mcentellas said...

Guillermo:

Also, re-read the Alvaro Garcia Linera quote you posted. While he clearly states that the BONOSOL money is now in the hands of YPFB, he only promises that the money will still be there for the BONOSOL payments. So all we have is his word on that. Latin American politicans (well, politicians generally) being what they are ... I'll wait to see how things turn out. The money *should* be there. But it does seem (from other statements as well) that the money is "in the hands of YPFB" and under its control. Evo's decree on 1 May even clearly stipulated that the money "belonged to the state" (note, the state, not the people). So I do think the money will be used as finance capital for YPFB, w/ the assumption that -- if things go as planned -- will turn profits. I'm more than willing to wait to see what happens in a few months. But a century of historical experience across the region tells me to be extremely skeptical. But I'd love to be proven wrote, I really would.

9:30 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

^^
Miguel, that is precisely what worries me the most. You make verbal promises you will pay the dividends that the stock brings, but you just emptied out most of the equity of the pension fund. There is not much else there.
The point of this whole exercise was to keep the state from doing such short-sighted things.

This sounds very unconstitutional, since this is by decree alone, and the pension fund derives its authority and fiduciary responsbility from three laws.


jeez, Guillermito... spinning the Lula-Evo thing as just a "disagreement."

It has becomes a political issue in Brazil, and Lula as a politician has to respond, in much the same way Evo has to respond to political pressure in Bolivia.

What the media reports show, is that Brazil's foreign policy establishment and state oil and gas bureaucracy is concerned. These are important sectors within Lula's own government.
Elsewhere from Brazil, there are quotes from their military worrying about Chavez formenting conflicts to the point where they are changing their military doctrine.

10:50 PM  
Blogger Norman said...

What would the response have been if Goni / Mesa / Rodriguez / Banzer / Tuto had said "I'm going to empty out the social security / pension fund, but don't worry. We'll take care of you just the same.

10:25 AM  
Anonymous guillermo said...

mcentellas, read through that article about the 5 percent mas payments. first, there appears to be a difference of opinion on whether its obligatory or not. the vice president and government spokesman said it is not. second, it is only for public employees or congressmen that are members of the mas party.

re: ypfb, am sure its had its share of corruption. what institution in bolivia hasn't in the past? still, it actually did pretty well in the 80s and 90s prior to goni's privatization scheme. in fact, they contributed more to government coffers then the big multinationals ever did. from 1985-96 ypfb contributed on average US$340 million a year to the national treasury, amounting to about 40 percent of the government's income. after privatization, the income from the gas sector, despite ten times more reserves and huge investment, was in fact less. in 2003, gas companies contributed a little more than $230 million (see http://www.cesu.umss.edu.bo/cesu/Pro_Hid/gp19.html) with taxes on top of royalties, it was still less than the ypfb contribution.

as for bonosol, your concerns are legitimate. but its not just alvaro's word, its by government decree that ypfb has to pay into bonosol the same as it did under the prior system. read this from today's la prensa:
El vicepresidente de la República, Álvaro García Linera, aseguró ayer que con la transferencia de las acciones de los bolivianos en las petroleras capitalizadas a la estatal YPFB el pago del Bono Solidario (Bonosol) está garantizado.
El Decreto Supremo 28711 establece que YPFB se convertirá en accionista de Andina, Chaco y Transredes, y entregará al Fondo de Capitalización Colectiva (FCC) “los dividendos que anualmente obtenga de las acciones transferidas”.
http://www.laprensa.com.bo/hoy/negocios/negocios01.htm

3:19 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

---from 1985-96 ypfb contributed on average US$340 million a year to the national treasury, amounting to about 40 percent of the government's income.-=---

That is without including hidden expenses by the state on behalf of YPFB, including any capital investments.


--------------
after privatization, the income from the gas sector, despite ten times more reserves and huge investment, was in fact less. in 2003, gas companies contributed a little more than $230 million (see http://www.cesu.umss.edu.bo/cesu/Pro_Hid/gp19.html) with taxes on top of royalties, it was still less than the ypfb contribution.
---------------------

This is when they just went online to Brazil, if you look at 2003 it went up to 230 from 184 million the year before. Revenues would go up by another 22 percent for 2004.
What you have as production kicks in then, is increased revenue from the gas taxes.

On top of that, your resonsible for?? little article dances around the fact that something like 330 million bucks were collected from the private sector, for corporate taxes and transaction taxes. Good chunk of that probably comes from the operations of the oil companies.

Lets go on a limb, not unreasonable to assume that they might be responsible for about 1/3 or 100 million dollars of that.

so average it out to around 300 a million a year those two years.

Then throw in 20 million or so in dividends to the pension fund each year.

320 million bucks... Not bad.

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