Monday, July 03, 2006

A War of Words: The Avoidable Bush/Bolivia Meltdown

Readers,

We just published a new issue of our electronic newsletter, The Democracy Center On-Line, an analysis of the needless meltdown in relations between the US and Bolivian governments. Below is the lead and here is a link to the article on a worth-visiting Web site on Latin America, Upside Down World.

Those interested in receiving the newsletter should send an email to info@democracyctr.org, with "newsletter" in the subject line.


Jim Shultz

A War of Words: The Avoidable Bush/Bolivia Meltdown

Last December, when Bolivians elected a socialist, indigenous, coca grower, Evo Morales, to be their president, it did not take a rocket scientist to predict that there might be rough waters ahead for Bolivia's relationship with the US.

A few days after Morales inauguration I was invited to give a talk on Bolivia before the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. The Council titled the event, "The US's Worst Nightmare?" - a provocative and widely reported fragment of rhetoric Morales had tossed out during an election rally here in Cochabamba.

In the Beginning - A Bilateral Optimism

Beneath the surface, however, there was a good deal of optimism and commitment on both sides about making the new US/Bolivia relationship work. I heard that optimism directly from both governments.

Read the full article here.

17 Comments:

Blogger Boli-Nica said...

Can we say one-sided????

This is a case where Evo alone dragged himself into this mess. US policy has been at most a couple of paragraphs here and there, by the odd administration figure. Given that coca erradication was the overiding focus and obsession of both US administrations policy towards Bolivia, Evo has had an astonishing honeymoon period. His long-time allies keep on growing more and more Coca and selling it to international drug dealers.

Evo himself created the impression of being Chavez' puppet, and it has been LATIN AMERICANS of the sane left that have propagated it.

12:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim,
Your article is certainly well put and balanced, even I believe that the unnecesary "viva la coca, mueran los yanquis" rethoric started this difficult situation. From Evo Morales' point of view, the United States has always been his enemy.

The real question is, "Given the intellectual framework of Morales, will he be able to change his negative outlook on the United States?"

10:09 PM  
Blogger Boli-Nica said...

What Morales needs to do is come up with a concrete plan of what he really wants to do with the coca, instead of all the bla-bla and double talk he is engaging in.

He needs to: a. find a compromise w/the growers that will cap production in Chapare, b. keep the status quo in the Yungas.

He is in the strongest position EVER for a Bolivian president re: growers. After all he is the grower federation's elected leader, commander in chief of Bolivia;s military and elected president. With the resources available to him, he should be able to craft a sollution, that would essentially clean up most of the Chapare.

If he takes care of the coca growing problem - which in the end is the biggest barrier in US-Bolivian relations the past 35 years, he could continue the preferences for Bolivian products.
The Bushies doesn't give a damn about Brazilian and Spanish oil companies being expropriated, or some Brazilian farmers in Santa Cruz. There is no huge US investments at stake in Bolivia, and its not like half of the Fortune 500 is just aiming to go to Bolivia to sell stuff.
Its all about the pichicata, if Evo shows that he is committed to controlling the output, and can vouch for where most of it goes, he would look so good in Washington.

If he is dumb, what is going to happen is plant production will go up, and the Colombians start buying more and more of it.

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