Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Another New Gas and Oil Brief: "What They Are Saying"

Dear Readers,

Since the Bolivian government's May 1 decree seeking to recover public control over the country's gas and oil reserves (and even before the decree) The Democracy Center gas and oil research team – Aaron Luoma and Gretchen Gordon – have prepared a series of briefing papers to help citizens and journalists worldwide understand the confusing dance of Bolivian gas and oil politics.

So far this has included:

Oil and Gas Policy in Bolivia - Post Election Update, April 6, 2006
Review of the May 1 Gas Decree – A policy analysis of the decree
Review of Foreign Media Coverage of the Decree - A look at what the press had to say

Today we add a new briefing paper to the series, A Summary of Initial Commentary on the May 1st Decree, which looks at what a wide variety of actors have had to say about Bolivia's new oil and gas policy – the Bolivian government, its domestic political opposition, think tanks from all sides, foreign governments, the oil companies and others. Looking at these comments together provides a real sense of the debate at hand, not just in Bolivia but also around the globe, as poor nations seek to get a fair cut of the barrel.

The index to all the briefing papers can be found here, including links to new Spanish translations of the policy analysis of the decree and the media coverage brief.

As always, we look forward to your comments.

73 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim;

Why don't you include a review of the legality of the Nationalization...The decree is unconstitutional in many aspects.

Curious how the "Democracy" center only defends the constitution when convenient.

4:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is an interesting clip from the PBS documentary about Bolivia. It puts terms like Neo-Liberalism in to context with economics, without all the bleeding heart associations that could range from legalizing crack to free willy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ittBp7z-TbM

2:50 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

interesting to note that the Government was SPending more than it recieved in taxes. This is a big problem when you have such a large population of People that live off the charts.

2:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jimbo;

I used to be an Analyst in NYC right after college, and what your "research" team put together is very poor. I would be ashamed to attach my name it. It's pure rethoric and contains zero analysis. At the very least you should get the book from the CAF "Luces y Sombras" that analyzes the capitalization and try to debunk their numbers and conclusions...at the very least.

There is no mention of capital inflows, elasticity of the supply of these funds (risk vs. reward as function of tax burden), impact on the AFPs, transfer payments & capture of revenues through other taxes, big field vs. small fields considerations, etc. Most shameful of all, you treat all companies in the industry as one. No separate analysis for Exploration, Perforation, Actual explotation, Transportation,etc. you even fail to distinguish the basic and fundamental differences b/w Repsol and Petrobras (and no consideration for the dozens of services firms, that cause most of the multiplier effect) and how they help explain the different patterns of behavior they are following.

Finally, how come your update does not mention the recent decision by the government to ignore the referendum and start negotiating with Chile ignoring the direct mandate of the "pueblo" of "gas por mar." C'mon, Jimbo, referendum is the most direct form of Democracy...don't tell me you and your acolytes would turn a blind eye to this affront to Democracy.

10:31 AM  
Blogger BOLIVIA LIBRE said...

What can we say, I am as disappointed as anonymous above, I will really like to have your job Jim; making five digit figures, in US$, in Cochabamba, with the quality of work you present in your Blog and Web page; I am telling you man, you are really stealing from whomever finances you.
So Aaron managed to write a paper with the remarks people have being saying in a very large period of time, no analysis, no opinion; even the remarks of the regime’s people are so old that they differ many times on what are they are saying today, off course, we Bolivians are use at the MAS partisans to say whatever is convenient to them according to the circumstances.
My analysis from Aaron’s “findings”, the MAS Regimen is accepting that the Nationalization decree was nothing more than complying with the Hydrocarbon Law passed during Mesa’s period, which is also an acceptance, for the few 20 to 25% of Bolivians that actually understand this theme, that it was a put up show in order to try to obtain at least 75% of the votes for the Constituent assembly. The regimen has now shifted its energy towards mobilizing the “Estado Mayor del Pueblo”, they armed civilian partisans, in order to defend the nationalization decree and to pass the new constitution with only 50% of the constituent votes.
I believe that the Capitalized Companies and their Countries know this was a show, but they are playing diplomacy and letting our government know that they will not be bullied around by us. And, of course, are also preparing themselves in case the instability within the MAS regimen move towards the most radical and aggressive sector and suffer a real nationalization, with expropriation.
I also think that the opposition knew the decree was a show and were rapidly expressing their concern since affected them immediately during the election of constituents. Today, they are behind the incongruence’s of the Regimen to exploit this opportunities politically.
A believe that all this have the Bolivian populations and specially its large quantity of hydrocarbon industry employees as the great losers. The industry’s exploration and perforation activities have practically stopped and thousands of employees from the contractor companies have being laid off, the lucky specialized ones, have being send abroad. We will not recuperate those brains and that experience easily.

3:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I copy a comment I put some weeks ago.... I still think the Democracy Center lost its way.

"Atoche said...
Is The Democracy Center truly concerned about democracy?
Wouldn't it be more appropriate to discuss Evo's movements towards a totalitarian state?

I read this blog and I only find economical interests. Jim, Olivera & Co won the "Guerra del Agua"! Yeah Right! What for? Did anything change in SEMAPA? No, it is as bad as always! And it is more corrupt than before!

I know that Jim has the right to chose which subjects to post in his Blog, and which subjects to ignore, even if these are more related to Democracy than any others.

I didn't vote for Evo, I don’t feel represented by Evo, and I think what Evo and MAS are doing is corroding the Democracy in my country. As Jim didn’t say that, I found the need to say it. Approving the new constitution articles by simple majority is corroding the democracy, declaring the assembly as “originaria” is corroding the democracy of Bolivia. I think these should be subject of discussion here. I think the world should know about this."

11:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Wall Street Journal

Bolivian Witch Hunts
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
September 1, 2006; Page A15

There is something about Bolivian President Evo Morales that doesn't
inspire confidence in a prosperous, democratic future for his
country. And it's not only the fashion statement he makes with the
striped sweater he wears like a uniform.

For a good many Bolivians it's the erosion of civil liberties under
his leadership. Just ask Marcela Nogales, a 47-year-old mother of
two pre-teens who holds a master's degree in auditing and financial
control from Bolivian Catholic University in a joint program with
Harvard University.

Mrs. Nogales, who was the general manager of the Central Bank of
Bolivia for five years until May, has been detained in a Bolivian
prison for the past six weeks at the behest of the Morales
government. She has yet to be charged.

This detention, a flagrant violation of Bolivian law, appears to be
part of a broader campaign against anyone connected with
modernization efforts in the past decade. As such, it has further
ignited the fears of Bolivian democrats who are deeply concerned
that their country is heading toward an authoritarian police state
under Mr. Morales.

Evo has already badly mishandled the economy. Exhibit A is his
decision on May 1, amidst the biggest energy boom in the history of
humankind, to nationalize the investments of foreign energy
companies in his gas-rich country. Perhaps such bravado felt good to
the country's first indigenous leader in modern times. But if he was
making a political calculation, he left out one important variable:
Bolivia is poor. So poor, it seems, that it hasn't the funding or
expertise to exploit the gas itself.

On Aug. 11 the government announced the suspension of the full
takeover of the oil fields "owing to a lack of economic resources."
But it's a little late. Some 30 energy companies are reported to
have ceased operations, and there has been no new investment.
Bolivia has been converted into an unreliable energy supplier, badly
wounding the only goose that lays hard-currency eggs.

The theory going around Bolivian circles -- that Venezuelan
President Hugo Chávez used the unsophisticated Evo to destroy the
country's energy sector so that Venezuela could step into the vacuum
-- is something worth pondering. Meanwhile, Mr. Morales, whose poll
numbers remain high, is now besieged by the same kinds of strikes,
road blockades and protests that he once organized as an activist.

Yet like any self-respecting demagogue, Evo isn't about to rely on
his competency to determine his fate. The best defense is a good
offense and Evo is on the offensive, using his office to
interrogate, investigate and even jail those who represent an
alternative to his vision for a Maoist Bolivia.

In April we noted the case of 67-year-old José Maria Bakovic, who as
president of Bolivia's National Highway Service (SNC) from 2001-2006
instituted a competitive, transparent bidding process for Bolivia's
road works. Evo forced Mr. Bakovic to resign from his post in
February and in March threw him in prison for three weeks without
due process. In the same month the president signed an executive
decree for a new highway project, bypassing the bidding process that
Mr. Bakovic had put in place. Mr. Bakovic is out of jail now but
cannot leave La Paz without permission from a judge. Meanwhile in
his all-out effort toward discrediting the architects of Bolivia's
limited liberalism and the ideas themselves, Mr. Morales has other
fish to fry.

The whopper is Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada (aka Goni) who was
president when Mr. Morales and his minions led road blockades in
October 2003 that paralyzed the nation. When Goni tried to open the
highways, the deadly violence brought down his government. The same
violence also killed the idea Goni was pitching to end the Argentine
and Brazilian duopsony in natural gas and open markets for Bolivia
to the west and north. Goni fled the country but Evo still wants his
pound of flesh. This is what Mrs. Nogales's arrest is all about.

During the height of the social unrest that brought Goni down, the
central bank met a government request for an emergency withdrawal
from its own account in the amount of $1.8 million. A little more
than half of the money was in local currency and the balance
($800,000) was in U.S. dollars.

In June two congressman in Evo's party made a big splash in the
Bolivian media by alleging that the transfer was $100 million and
that Goni took it with him in a helicopter when he fled La Paz.
Among the accusers' more effective tools has been a video tape,
illegally obtained, which shows bank employees taking cash out of
the vault. This has been spun with great skill in the Bolivian media
as a mega heist by the corrupt elite to accommodate Goni.

The attorney general has not only arrested Mrs. Nogales but it has
also put the former president of the central bank, Juan Antonio
Morales, on notice that he is under investigation and also could be
jailed. Reportedly he joins scores of other former top Bolivian
officials who are now threatened with criminal prosecution.
Moreover, he has been defamed and slandered in the press.

Leaving aside the obvious point that if bank insiders were going to
steal money they would have turned off the security cameras, the
character assassination aimed at Mr. Morales is unsubstantiated. As
head of the central bank from late 1995 until Evo pushed him out in
May 2006, he earned an impeccable reputation by institutionalizing
bank independence, transparency and accountability. The highest
annual inflation rate Bolivia experienced from 1996-2005 was 4.5%.

Bolivia's controller general, independent auditors and Congress have
all exonerated the bank of any criminal wrongdoing. But the
government continues its political witch hunt; Mrs. Nogales
languishes in prison without rights and a climate of intimidation
hangs over civil society. If Evo prevails, it will mean not only the
silencing of his opposition, but also the end of central-bank
independence. This may explain why, despite the lack of evidence,
the case has not been dropped.

8:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To who ever posted above:

Way to go, Plagiarize a way. Why dont you post something orginal instead of cutting and pasting? You are not a Grad. student are you?

10:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought it was a good paste after reading. While the majority of blame seemes to be assigned to missionaries( Jim: what a professional article you wrote entitled Mcdonalds and Christianity), I often wonder about such organizations as the democracy center and the amount of money you make off of romanticizing poverty and indians. How weak.

10:50 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Respect that this is your blog, and that you can choose to write about whatever you want to write. However, your site is called the democracy center, and your topics so far have been purely economic.

Bolivia is going through an extremely political period, a political revolution, not an economic revolution... Believe it or not, economically we are not changing... For example, the nationalization was not a nationalization per se... it was almost a copy paste of Mesa's decreet and a big propaganda showing the world and bolivians the army taking over... However, the petroleum companies were informed before hand, destroyed tons of information, and have not signed any contracts so far.
By the way you should investigate about the hospital evo inagurated in Yapacani.... This was a few months ago. USAID constructed a hospital and paid for most of the equipment, evo inaugurated it as CUBAN! and thanked the cuban government for donating the money and the equipment.... The people in Yapacani are not allowed to watch certain tv shows, like unitel news... You should visit the place... that is what is going on in our rural areas... TOTAL CONTROL!!!

11:01 PM  
Anonymous goldbugs said...

Oil and Gas is increasingly becoming a political weapon. Would peak oil have anything to do with it ?
theviewfromthepeak.net is a good site on the topic

3:34 AM  
Anonymous Free Gas said...

I actually just began a blog on this topic. You can see it at: http://myfreegas.blogspot.com. Any feedback would be appreciated.

9:50 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"There is something about Bolivian President Evo Morales that doesn't
inspire confidence in a prosperous, democratic future for his
country"


Well... prosperity and democracy never happen in Bolivia so... nothing new about that. Usamericans, the serial killers of our people (www.soaw.org) and democracy in our countries, are talking about democracy in Bolivia now... well nothing new. Just hypocresy.

Usamericans: better save YOUR democracy from necons and let us do what we want to do. People don't believe you are interested in our freedom or our lifes: you just want your companies be able to depredate our countries. Stop exporting your fake democracy, i.e. plutocracy: you lose your democracy so stop talking about other's democracy.

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