And Now the Governors Jump In

Here's the latest turn in the renewed political battle over whether the building blocks of a new constitution require a super majority of 2/3 for approval in the Constituent Assembly (there is no dispute over the fact that the final document requires a 2/3 vote for approval.).

Now six of Bolivia's state governors have jumped in. On Saturday the governors of the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Tarija, Pando, Cochabamba and La Paz announced that they are "breaking relations" with the national government of President Morales over the MAS-led vote at the Assembly Friday to allow the pieces of the new proposal to be approved by a simple majority.

What "breaking relations" means at this point is unclear. More than anything, for now, the declaration is most significant for what it signals about the hot and shifting winds of Bolivian politics.

For the first time, since the new governors took office at the start of this year, they are each directly elected by the voters in their respective regions. Prior to that governors were always direct appointees of the President. Their popular election was one of the reforms that came out the political convulsions here last year.

I have said for months, it is really the governors, not the leaders of the opposition parties in Congress, which are the serious political counterweights to Morales and MAS. If you want to see who will contest for the Presidency at the end of Evo's term, look to them. That said, what is significant about the declaration is not that the governors (prefectos) of Santa Cruz, Beni, Tarija, and Pando have challenged Morales. They, after all, represent the so-called "media luna" along Bolivia's east where protests against Morales and the government are becoming a staple.

No, what is significant is the political calculation by José Luis Paredes (aka Pepe Lucho), of La Paz and Manfred Reyes Villa (aka Bon Bom) of Cochabamba to join the fray. The two are on very similar trajectories. Both were mayors of big cities in their region (El Alto and Cochabamba, respectively). Both were just elected governor a year ago in departments with solid MAS majorities for President. And both have pretty obvious presidential ambitions. Reyes Villa ran in 2002 and was the front runner until the very end when he was finally undone by a targeted campaign against him by Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada.

Both have also been noticeably absent, until now, from the political noise at the national level – leaving that to the opposition parties PODEMOS and UN.

Ryes Villa, for months, has reminded me of Dory, one of the fish characters in the movie, "Finding Nemo" (Can you tell I have a four-year-old?). Amidst panic and chaos on all sides, she blissfully keeps singing to herself, "Just keep swimming. Just keep swimming." For months Manfred's political slogan has seemed to be, "Just keep building. Just keep building" as our Sunday papers are filled with full color state-financed ads for the latest ribbon the new governor has cut.

It has also been a pretty good strategy. While national politicians battle, Manfred just keeps racking up more credits for paved streets, work on the Misicuni dam, and a newly color-lit Jesus. That simultaneously avoids angering the MAS base he needs to mine if he runs national again and builds his image as a man "who knows how to govern." He may well be betting that the latter is just the right way to position himself for a post-Evo election.

So, why the dive into turbulent national political waters? Maybe it really is about political principle. Sometimes politicians do act on those. But as I wrote in my last posting, I think principle is less the issue here than power politics by both sides. More likely it is a measure of how one of the most skilled politicians in the country reads the winds here. I can't believe that either Reyes Villa or Paredes would have done this if they didn't think there was a reservoir of public concern about MAS simple-majority move in the Assembly. Consider the two barometers.

Meanwhile the MAS government has responded by announcing that it will ask to Congress to censure the six governors and open investigations into "irregularities" in their administrations.

Tonight the question in Bolivia remains the same as it was during the last round of heightened tensions – when the four departments staged their anti-Evo general strikes in September. Is all this the precursor to a real national meltdown and conflict (that could get ugly fast) or just the loud noise of rival political forces trying to undermine the power of the other in ongoing negotiations about Bolivia's future?