The Numbers Grow

Tear gas now wafts its way through the windows of my office. Twenty-four hours after central Cochabamba erupted in violence that claimed two lives and wounded well more than a hundred, the numbers of people in the streets only grows.

I just returned a while ago from the Central Plaza, where a crowd of about 5,000 people demanding Manfred's resignation gathered to hear speeches from the balcony of the central labor union. I was one of only a few gringo heads that stuck up from the Bolivian crowd. Sticking up higher still were thousands of rough wooden sticks held upright in people's hands. It's safe to say that my mother would not have approved of how I spent my lunch break.

Cocaleros and others from the countryside region of Cochabamba are coming in by truckloads. Omar Fernandez, the Irrigators Union leader and MAS Senator who is a leader in the protest, asked those blockading the roads in and out of the city to let the newcomers in. Opponents of Reyes Villa are increasing their numbers and they are coming here to stay.

I don't know, at this writing, exactly what is happening with concentrations of Manfred supporters, but there are reports that two separate groups, possibly armed with guns, are marching toward the Central Plaza to take control of it. Rumors are many in these situations and hard facts tougher to come by, but we'll keep you posted. Clearly, new outbreaks of violent conflict are possible.

Speaking from the balcony, a visibly exhausted Fernandez made it clear that the leadership of the protests want further violence to be avoided. He cast yesterday's events as a deliberate provocation by Manfred supporters and urged those in the plaza not to allow their adversaries to drag them into violence once again.

The Morales government has made several statements in the last 24 hours. Evo Morales, en route home from the presidential inaugural in Nicaragua, called for peace and dialogue. Last night, Vice President Garcia Linera blamed Manfred for provoking the violence and also called for peace. More interesting was a long declaration on the radio this morning by the Vice Minister of Government who said the solution to the crisis needed to be a compromise that "respected democracy." That compromise, he said, meant that the cocaleros and others in the plaza needed to respect the democratic legitimacy of Reyes-Villa as governor and Reyes-Villa needed to respect, in turn, the democratic will of the people of Cochabamba who voted strongly against the regional autonomy Reyes-Villa is now backing. The prospects of either side backing down seem pretty slim at this point.

What does all this mean? Here are three things that I think have to be noted about the current situation:

1. The violence yesterday was clearly started by Manfred's backers.

The facts seem indisputable. At 4:15 the cocaleros, about 600 of them, were dispersed on the lawns at the end of the Prado on the southern side of the bridge. Some 1,000 stick-wielding Manfred backers deliberately crossed to that side of the bridge and began beating people. TV film footage, including scenes of young male Manfred supporters beating indigenous women, not only corroborate this version of events, but also sent a racially charged image across Bolivia that will not soon be forgotten. Yes, the cocaleros helped provoke the current crisis, but Manfred's backers win sole credit for turning that tension into the violent melee that took place here Thursday.

2. The Battle of Cochabamba is a stand-in for something much larger.

Each side has sought to wrap itself in the mantle of "democracy", and each side has some legitimacy in doing so. Manfred and his backers say he was elected by the people and that no crowd in the Plaza has the right to reverse an election. Those calling for his resignation say he is violating democracy by directly going against a popular vote against autonomy. But really, the stakes are bigger here. Cochabamba has become the meeting ground of two broad forces trying to steer the nation in their preferred historic direction. "Autonomy" is not about what language children will speak in school; it is about oil revenue and who controls it. The highlands and the marginalized of Cochabamba want that resource to belong to all of Bolivia. The eastern provinces, where the luck of geology placed that oil and gas, want to maximize their share. Unwrap all the proclamations about democracy (though clearly sincere by many) and it is about oil and gas, political control of the nation's future, and what Manfred opponents call, "the process of change."

3. We are in uncharted waters here.

This is not the water war. Then you had a unified Cochabamba – urban and rural together – joined in a social movement with clear leadership, facing a government. Even in the most conflictive moments there was a logic to how the various actors made their choices and there was always dialogue between the two, along with skilled mediation. This is about a Cochabamba deeply divided. Some of the same neighborhood people blockading streets in the more affluent northern parts of town yesterday, in support of Manfred, were blockading with the Coordinadora seven years ago. There is no dialogue taking place and no viable mediation. There is also much less control from above about what happens on the street. The end game in the water revolt was clear toward the end – eventually Bechtel would leave. How this crisis ends is completely unclear, and uncertainty combined with angry crowds in the streets is a dangerous chemistry.