Maybe Evo Should Get Married

As MAS and opposition parties continue to struggle over the specifics of a new national constitution, one of the hot button issues (among many) is the question of Presidential re-election. Under the current constitution the President of Bolivia may not run for re-election – though they he or she is allowed to sit out a term and run again five years later, a la Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada.

Evo Morales and MAS want to change the "no re-election" rule. MAS' opponents are resolute about keeping the one term limit. This is another one of those issues – like the battle over requiring a 2/3 vote on everything in the Constituent Assembly – where it is important to sort out the difference between democratic principle and partisan self-interest.

Where you Stand Depends on Where You Sit

As I wrote during the 2/3 battle, I have no doubt that if PODEMOS had been in the majority in the Constituent Assembly, and MAS in the minority, their positions would have been reversed. PODEMOS leaders would have been insistent that a minority not be allowed to stand in the way of Bolivia's majority charting a course forward. MAS would have been shutting down the Assembly with protests, demanding respect for minority rights. Similarly, if Tuto Quiroga had won the vote in 2005 with a 2 to 1 edge (as Evo did), PODEMOS would be the champion of a reform allowing re-election (and MAS would be opposing it).

The no re-election rule is not uncommon in Latin America, where a history of dictatorships raises natural concerns about leaders who consolidate power and think they ought to be President for a very, very long time. On the other hand, Latin American countries such as Brazil allow for re-election, and it serves as a mechanism of accountability on leaders who know they will face the voters again and be judged.

To call simple re-election a step toward authoritarianism is just a partisan exaggeration. It is especially silly from people who worship the U.S. political system where, obviously, re-election is allowed. On the other hand, allowing the option of a lifetime Presidency, a la Castro, or as Chavez apparently would like to have in Venezuela – that is a legitimate 'democratic' worry.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist, or a political scientist, to understand why MAS' adversaries oppose letting Evo stand for re-election, even once. They assume they will lose. If they thought that they could beat Evo in 2010, they'd be delighted to have him run again. Remember, Morales could lose a sizeable portion of his 2005 support and, with an opposition split among the likely faces of Tuto, Manfred, and Samuel (among others), still finish far ahead of any of them. He is clearly also the strongest candidate MAS could field. His opponents know this too.

Two Possible Solutions

There is an obvious compromise here – allow for one re-election and no more. It isn't an especially radical idea. If Tuto, Manfred, and Samuel think that Evo should end his presidency in 2010, they can make their case to the Bolivian people. That sounds reasonably democratic to me. But, similarly, MAS should accept that a presidency beyond ten years isn't a great recipe. Presidential administrations, like yogurt or cheese, tend to start smelling bad after they have been around too long.

Now there is another solution, you might call it the Argentine Plan. Yesterday voters in Argentina voted overwhelmingly to elect the nation's First Lady, Cristina Kirchner, as her husband's successor. President Nestor Kirchner could have run for re-election himself under the Argentine constitution, but for reasons known truly only to the couple's pillows, they opted for the swap. To be clear, Ms. Kirchner is a political leader in her own right, a former national Senator.

This model of spouse-swapping in the executive mansion seems to be catching on. The Clintons are trying it in the U.S. in 2008, though with an eight-year time delay. We'll see how that works out. Maybe Morales might want to give it a try.

If MAS' opposition remains insistent and eventually MAS backs down on its call for allowing re-election, it does have another option. Evo could get married. There are many fine Bolivian women political leaders who Evo could join at the altar, and then back to succeed him. It might need to be an arranged marriage. We can speculate that Evo might not be the easiest fellow to be married to. But politics has a price.

Or perhaps, wanting to save the sanctity of marriage in Bolivian, MAS' conservative opposition might back down and allow him to stand for re-election – once. They can use the money they would save on wedding presents to help finance their campaigns against Evo in 2010.