In Bolivia: the Other Cochabamba Rises

The jammed crowd of marchers took an hour and a half to walk past the window of our office, from start to finish. By the time that the dense snake of Morales supporters wound its way through the city Center and gathered as a single throng in the city's Central Plaza, it easily numbered 10,000, or more. It was the largest gathering I have seen in the Plaza since the high tide of the Water Revolt in April 2000. It was also completely peaceful.

Today was a day when, in typical fashion, political struggle in Bolivia played out both among the politicians and on the street. The headlines were taken up with the announcement last night that President Morales will push for a new national referendum in which he and Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera, along with all nine state governors, would stand for an up or down vote from the people, to decide whether each would continue in his job (they are all men). This will be a hard offer for the Governors to resist, given that Cochabamba's Governor, Manfred Reyes Villa, proposed exactly the same thing during the conflicts between he and MAS last January. But the devil is in the details of how such a referendum would actually work (more on that later).

But in the streets of Cochabamba today the news was not of political ping-pong, but of the return of "the other Cochabamba" to the streets in full force. Over and over again, in Manfred-led rallies and in 'paro civico's like last week's, the opposition to Morales has flexed its muscle in the street, in significant numbers. But none was anything close to what was seen here today.

"This mass gathering is to demonstrate that the Bolivian people and the people of Cochabamba are in agreement with the new constitution that has been approved in draft," a cocalero representative, Julio Salazar, told The Democracy Center. "We are in support of this process of change, to recover and industrialize our natural resources and especially to recover our dignity and sovereignty."

Not since before Morales' election has the city seen a full mobilization of the social movements, labor groups, cocaleros, and other elements of MAS' political base. The January marches on the city by MAS backers were hardly one at full steam. And a large number of people here are not simply Morales backers and part of that base. Many came from youth groups in the city and other sectors, mobilized by what they see as an effort by the opposition to block political change.

Today, however, to be sure, the vast majority were people from the countryside. Women I talked to left early in the morning, babies on their backs, from the deep corners of the Chapare and elsewhere to arrive for the 2pm march. Critics love to spin the tale that all these people came only because they were paid to do so, but that's never the story I get from anyone I speak to who came. They are here because they see themselves in a battle for change vital to their children's futures. Don't doubt it.

There were also middle class people from the city who joined in the march. I spoke to one young Bolivian woman I know, who owns a small restaurant in Cochabamba:

"Most of Bolivia is campesinos. They came here today from Tiquipaya and Quillacollo and Tarata. People in the city forget that most of Bolivia still lives in the countryside. Bolivia is a lot more than just the north [affluent] side of Cochabamba. And most of these people have five kids, six kids. In ten years Evo Morales will still be President of Bolivia because they support him."

Her point is well-taken. While both local and international media reported that last week's 'paro civico' was complete in Cochabamba, in fact it only stopped movement in the center of the city and the better-off northern neighborhoods, and the absence of public transit was about fear of broken windows, not political support for Reyes Villa and the paro's other patrons. In Cochabamba's poorer southern neighborhoods and in outlaying towns like Tiquipaya and Quillacolla, life was normal.

It is easy to forget how deep and adamant the MAS political base is in this part of Bolivia. It is where Morales began his political rise and many of the people here know him, not as a figure on television, but as someone who has spent time directly by their side.

On the surface, it would seem difficult for Morales to match the 53% of the vote he won in December 2005. But don't believe polls, which, with a distinctly urban bias, have underestimated Morales support by double digits consistently. And don't count out the power or passion of Bolivia's rural poor, either in the streets or, as may be, at a new ballot.