In Bolivia, When Dialogue Fails…

Readers:

When I left Bolivia three weeks ago, popular attention was dedicated to two things: a sputtering attempt at political dialog by the nation's President, Vice-President, and nine regional governors, and a national catastrophe caused by flooding. When I returned to Bolivia last Friday popular attention was dedicated to two things…a sputtering attempt at political dialog by the nation's President, Vice-President, and nine regional governors, and a national catastrophe caused by flooding.

That said, there have been important developments these past weeks on the dialog issue. To bring readers up to speed two members of The Democracy Center team, Aldo Orellana and Lily Whitesell, have prepared the Blog post below.

Jim Shultz


When Dialogue Fails…

After two weeks of growing tensions, the Morales government and the regional governors are at a current standstill in their ongoing political battles. The opposition governors and civic committees formed a new entity, calling themselves the National Democratic Council (CONALDE). They gave the Morales government an ultimatum to stop their current political moves with a deadline of last Wednesday, February 13.

The dialogue had begun fairly well more than a month ago, with the goals of reviewing the most controversial issues of the new Constitution, reaching an agreement on regional autonomies, and discussing the re-distribution of the Impuesto Directo a los Hidrocarburos (IDH), one of the key mechanisms through which revenues from foreign oil companies are allocated and spent here.

The current breakdown in talks began on February 1, when the government announced it would start payment of the “Bono Dignidad,” financial support for senior citizens similar to the US’ Social Security, using IDH funds. The program was approved by Congress last November, but the financing, which requires approximately 200 million dollars annually, had not been secured.

President Morales, speaking at the program’s launch in Cochabamba, said, “[The payment of the Bono Dignidad] is thanks to the natural resources recuperated in the struggle of the Bolivian people [in 2003] and nationalized by the government. … These economic resources are not Evo Morales’ money… it’s not the mayors’ or governors’ money, it’s the Bolivian people’s money, and … it must be returned to the Bolivian people.”

The opposition denounced the move as the end of the dialogue. Prior to the Bono Dignidad program, the IDH funds were to be distributed at the regional level, under the control of the governors. On the day of the government’s public launch of the program, Santa Cruz’s governor [Ruben Costas, pictured above] responded by announcing that a regional referendum on autonomy would take place on May 4. He asserted that, “The dialogue is hanging by a thread… this [action by Morales] is an intent to destabilize the regional governors.”

For its part, one of the leaders of the right-wing PODEMOS party, which has been marginalized as the governors take the main opposition role, added that, “The dialogue has unfortunately been broken … we don’t know where it is headed … because the president decided to begin to pay [the Bono Dignidad] without the agreement of the other side.”

A week later, the gap between the Morales government and the regional governors grew even wider when the members of CONALDE met in Sucre. In the meeting, the governors and their respective civic committees took a much more confrontational stance toward the government. They approved a number of resolutions, demanding that the government accept them.

These proposals went far beyond the three topics that had been flagged for discussion in the previous month of dialogue. If not impossible, they would be very difficult for the government to accept. They rejected the use of IDH funds to pay the Bono Dignidad. They demanded a new regional governor’s election in Sucre. They insisted that the government recognize the autonomy referendum proposals of Santa Cruz and three other regions – proposals that would give so much power to the regional governments that even the leadership of PODEMOS has been openly skeptical of them. The most difficult point that they suggested was to take the Constituent Assembly process back to last August 15, the day that the Capitalia issue was taken out of debate. They proposed taking the issue up again and demanded that the government call for a national referendum to decide the location of the executive and legislative branches.

Both sides are accusing the other of breaking laws. CONALDE has based most of their demands, particularly those dealing with the new Constitution, on what they assert were a series of illegal moves by the government, from taking the Capitalia issue out of debate to the vote that approved the new Constitution. On their side, the government has claimed that the governors’ call for regional autonomy referendums is illegal. If there is a difference, it is that the opposition is entrenched in legal arguments about past events, while the government has entrenched itself in legal debates about events which have yet to occur.

Perhaps what the two sides have most in common are demands for referendums, which could be the best, and most democratic, way out of the current standoff. First, the new Constitution would need a national referendum for its approval. Also, last November, the government proposed a referendum to give the population an up-or-down vote on the leadership of President Morales, Vice-President Garcia Linera, and the nine regional governments – which could completely reconfigure the political scene of the country. The proposal has not been approved by the Bolivian Senate, though it seems to be gathering support there. For their part, the opposition governors have called for their regional autonomy referendums on May 4 and are demanding a national referendum to resolve the Capitalia issue for once and for all.

There is a good reason for this flurry of referendum proposals. Both sides know that in order to unwind the current tension, re-direct the country’s politics, and take their next step forward, they would need to clearly have public support behind them. The current failure in dialogue has left the government and the opposition at an impasse. Both have shown that they are willing to take the risk of losing in a referendum. If they are unable to begin to dialogue again in the next few weeks – on any of these issues – perhaps a referendum on the national and regional leadership would be the best option. Political leaders shouldn’t be afraid of this kind of popular decision – though they very often are.

It is yet to be seen where the current standoff in Bolivian politics will lead. Last week, the government confirmed that they would not respond or capitulate to the demands. Leading up to their ultimatum deadline, CONALDE had warned of protests, blockades, and taking public buildings if the government failed to meet their demands. However, they have postponed politics and demonstrations to address the flooding crisis in their home jurisdictions.

Floods have been ravaging this country, particularly in the opposition governors’ regions. Since November, 53 people have lost their lives as a direct result of the flooding, more than 55,000 families have been affected, and 31,000 square miles of land are under water in Beni alone. President Morales and the governors of Santa Cruz and Beni are meeting today to discuss rebuilding efforts. If these political leaders are able to find common ground as they work to rebuild their country, perhaps one good thing will have come out of the tragedy of the flooding.

Written by Aldo Orellana and Lily Whitesell