Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Notes from the Road

Days on the road: 32
Airports: 15
Hours in the air: 50
Continents: 3
Countries: 6
Cities: 10
Languages: 5 (counting U.K. English as a separate language, which it is)
Coffees: 47
Pounds gained: I'm guessing my shoe size, and I have very big feet.
Carbon footprint: I believe that I am now obligated to reforest Paraguay.


Back in the USA

An all day layover in Santa Cruz, two options, Alexander's for coffee or the zoo. We go to the zoo. The llamas look more nervous these days. The sloths are campaigning for autonomy. In Bolivia it seems everything is politics.

American Airlines is a sad airline. Now even the pretzels are gone. But it isn't the pilots' or the stewardesses' fault. One of our flight attendants wears a button calling on American's CEO to resign, before he collects six more bonuses. The pilot who takes us from Miami tips his cap to my small daughter and invites her to have a look inside the cockpit. "Mariana, don't touch any buttons!" I yell. But not even that seems to knock him off balance. Too bad he's not CEO.

Southern California – people here are spoiled. They take the beach and burritos for granted. They should try living in Bolivia for a year. I tried to convince my 5-year-old daughter that all the people with a little telephone receivers in their ears are robots. She thought about it, but then decided I was joking. But I wasn't.

Big news for those who make that oh-so-California of treks, the car trip up Interstate 5 from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Starbucks has a pair of drive-thrus along the route. I consider this as evidence that civilization in the U.S. has continued to advance. My eldest daughter is a 'barista' at a Starbucks in Jacksonville FL. Who invented the word 'barista' anyway? It sounds like a Latin American political movement…"armed baristas have taken control of the national parliament and have demanded more logical names for coffee sizes…' If Starbucks measured 'barista' height the way they measure their cappuccinos my daughter would be 'tall', which would be really something for someone who barely measures 5 feet.

Marin County California, everyone seems to have a smile on their face. Affluence and redwood trees will do that to people. We hang out in Fairfax. We eat white yogurt-covered pretzels and marvel at houses where people leave their doors unlocked when they go out.
In San Francisco I go on a father/daughter outing with my five-year-old. We take a boat there. My daughter calls Chinatown "China City." At the restaurant where we ate lunch she spends most of the time looking at the big silver fish swimming in the tank waiting to be eaten. We have a joke we like to make. "Hey, you know what they call Chinese food in China City? Food!"

In Berkeley I run into an old friend of mine. She is leading a group of women dressed in pink who are protesting at the U.S. Marines recruitment office. The police guarding the door don't seem terribly happy to be there. But better there than in Iraq I suppose. I am happy to see Berkeley hasn't changes completely since I went to school lived there 150 years ago. I might be exaggerating that number, but only slightly.

I meet an old friend for drinks in the lobby of the St. Francis Hotel and strike up a conversation in Spanish with the waitress who is from Peru. She gives us a second round on the house. I like having conversations with immigrants in the U.S., even when they don't give me free drinks.

Washington. Here's how conversations there go these days:

"Hello how are you?"

"Fine, and you?"

"Fine."

"Okay, now that we have that out of the way, shit! What about Obama!!"


Fully-grown adults seem to be living a glee that most thought they left behind when they bought the theory that Santa isn't real (disproven, by the way).

Also a phenomena in Washington, the city's conservative, the Washington Times, seems to look for photos of Barak Obama that will make him most look like Malcolm X having a bad day. I like to imagine the editor barking orders like that character in Spiderman. "Jesus, can't anyone get me a good snarl on that guy?!"

In the U.S. capital saltenas cost $4, but they are really big. But less big than my feet.

Across the Atlantic

London, a city where it seems that everyone is inexplicably obsessed with imitating the voices Monty Python characters, is also the financial capital of the world. I think I know how Londoners make their money. In a cinema in London the price of a Bolivian movie ticket will roughly cover the cost of seeing one preview, which is actually not one of the admission options. Public transport in London is partly financed by requiring passengers to by tickets from coin-operated machines at the bus stops that mainly seem to eat the coins without dispensing a ticket. This happens to me every time. I am a major financier of London public transport.

In the Vienna airport all the guys who work at Starbucks seem to have the same haircut, which involves using gel to make your hair in front stand upright in a triangle. They also didn't seem to notice this until I pointed it out. "Wow, I guess so!" Is a guy a 'baristo'?

In Pristina, Kosovo's capital, people are very proud of their newly declared national independence, but they still have a few kinks to work out. The main one is that the city's electricity goes out several times a day, sometimes for hours. I discover this, unfortunately, while taking a pee in a suddenly-pitch back public restroom.

I like Montenegro, the tiny Republic (population of less than 1 million) carved out of the former Yugoslavia. Perhaps it is a sign that I was allowed to watch too much television in as a child, but when Montenegrins speak they all sound to me like Boris and Natasha, the Russian spies who sparred with Rock and Bullwinkle. Maybe it is their sentence structure. Here's a sign posted over a toilet in a UN office in Podgorica:

"When flushing, we are kindly asking you to push the flushing button once again. In this way you will avoid leaving the water in the running state which could, God forbid, cause flood."

In Europe in general, the man-purse is in. Men across the Balkans and Spain can be seen with small rectangle bags hanging at their hip from a strap tossed around their necks. Just big enough for a cell phone, a wallet and perhaps some mysterious European man-snack. I consider myself a trendsetter here. I've been a knapsack guy for thirty years. But the purse? What's the point if you can't carry a book? I'm just saying.

Something I read (in Spanish) on the back of a waiter's t-shirt at a Madrid street café (I don't think they call anyone in Madrid a 'barista': "The secret to life is to eat and drink without moderation." Many people in Madrid were practicing that advice on Sunday night when Spain faced Italy in the EuroCup quarterfinals. Ninety minutes, a scoreless tie. Twenty minutes of overtime, more scorelessness. Spaniards filled every café with a big screen in the city center. Television stations reported the largest audience in the history of Spanish television. Plaza Colon was filled with thousands watching on really big screens there. A decades-old curse of penalty kick losses just like this one hung over the nation. And with a pair of blocked Italian kicks a nation seemed to explode in celebration in one collective cheer. Nations need that from time to time.

The Way Home

The Miami Airport. It is a scary thing to know an airport so well that the bagel guys know my name and I can tell you which store sells Flaming Hot Cheetos. Tips about the Miami airport. There is a post office hidden on the fourth floor where few visitors ever go. Handy for sending gifts while in transit. There is a small park outside just beyond the Airport Hotel. You can actually go outside on a long layover.

Airports all have aquariums now, but they are for people, not fish. People who smoke. If you want to put yourself on display, anyone can. You just need a cigarette and sour looking face.

Decency is not hard to find in the U.S., even though the face we often show the world is far short of decent. One place you can find it is in the lost and found at the Miami Airport. I passed by the door without meaning to and strolled in for a chat with the fellow behind the desk, Ernie Alonso. He's worked behind the Lost and Found desk for 15 years.

"A wheel barrel came in today," he tells me. "We've also had human ashes." It is hard to imagine that someone could accidentally misplace their cremated uncle at the Borders Books here, but things happen. In the case of the ashes Alonso used information on the side of the can to track down the funeral home that had handled the cremation and through them was able to contact the family and Ecuador that had come to fetch a relative's ashes and then lost them somewhere between terminals E and D. "We don't just sit around and wait for people to come in. We make phone calls. We send emails." Maybe instead of making a fifth round of those CSI shows that seem to be so popular they could do one about Ernie as detective extraordinaire. They could call it, "L&F Miami!"

The La Paz airport. From summer to winter. From sea level to more than two miles high. From men with purses to women in wide skirts and bowler hats.

Way to American, three hours late so my connection to Cochabamba left me behind. Sometimes I think AA is channeling LAB.

But eventually I will find a way home – to my family, my dogs, my hidden eucalyptus grove. Oh yeah, and to a bed, my own.

63 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

To call salten~a the crap that Julia's Empanadas sells is an afront to all Bolivians...

AA's CEO is not to blame, if anyone deserves blame for airlines going out of business soon, it would be Chavez and his buddies at the OPEC who still refuse to raise output levels. In fact AA was kind enough not to declare bankruptcy back in 01. They could have taken the easy way out, but decided to fight on. Regardless, the airline business makes millionaires out of billonaires. Good thing Evo is not nationalizing LAB...

1:26 PM  
Anonymous pascal's_revenge said...

Good stuff, Jim. Thanks.

PR

3:48 PM  
Blogger BOLIVIA LIBRE said...

Hey buddy, welcome back; many things happened around here while you where gone, but the only relevant to you id that CIUDADANO X, yes, the one that unmasked you, your Soros founded organization and your participation in the proposal for new constitution written with the blood of innocent Bolivians, is doing great.

So great in deed that it is a Bolivian best seller, over 7K sold already and this month is hitting Argentina and Uruguay book stores, and yes, the street also. Talking about the street, you will be seeing a lot of the shirt with the writing, “I also want to be Ciudadano X” in Cochabamba; what can I say, count that!!.

8:12 PM  
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10:13 PM  
Anonymous Marty said...

Welcome back!

12:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 1:26 PM, thank you for your economic wisdom. I am going to buy some LAB stock right away… yeah right! That airline is in its last gasp and its last chairman is somewhere in Europe or perhaps the US enjoying the fruits of his bilking while his former employees, now the unfortunate owners of LAB, are desperately trying to stay afloat.

Kudos, Mr Anon 1:26 PM you fit right in the mold of the pseudo “political scientists” and “foreign policy experts” that plague this site. You and your crew would make wonderful advisors to the five Mugabe wannabe’s currently carving their Banana Republics in Bolivia.

Franco

12:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 1:26 PM, thank you for your economic wisdom. I am going to buy some LAB stock right away… yeah right! That airline is in its last gasp and its last chairman is somewhere in Europe or perhaps the US enjoying the fruits of his bilking while his former employees, now the unfortunate owners of LAB, are desperately trying to stay afloat.

Kudos, Mr Anon 1:26 PM you fit right in the mold of the pseudo “political scientists” and “foreign policy experts” that plague this site. You and your crew would make wonderful advisors to the five Mugabe wannabe’s currently carving their Banana Republics in Bolivia.

Franco

12:21 AM  
Anonymous Marty said...

Also, you can leave your front door wide open in Bolivia too... provided that the gate at the front of the compund is securely bolted, yuk yuk.

12:31 AM  
Blogger bowsie said...

AA's CEO is not to blame, if anyone deserves blame for airlines going out of business soon, it would be Chavez and his buddies at the OPEC who still refuse to raise output levels.

1. Chavez and his buddies... this of course would include the left-wing bastion of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which effectively own a double-digit percentage of the America economy and hold huge personal business dealings with some very famous Republican politicians. Those are the evil-doers that are driving oil prices?

2. The demand/supply ratio of oil has not changed enough in the past few years to explain oil prices. However, speculation on oil commodities (again, from that left-wing loony establishment Wall Street) has increased to an historic high, as it is seen as one of the safest commodities out there. This speculation has effectively driven the price of oil higher and higher, with the major investors hoping for a self-fulfilling prophecy price of $200.

3. In a fair economic system OPEC would be obliged to increase production and speculation on commodities would be properly regulated. However we have the aggressive and unregulated free-market, where investors and oil barons continue to increase profits by billions while normal people pay for it at the petrol pump. You asked for it and you got in Anon, reap what you sow.

8:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Franco, how does preferring the real deal on saltenhas and stating the conventional wisdom on the airline industry make a puppet for the right? I think you hate all that speak english...try smoking some herb with Grindio, does wonders in the chill out department.


Even during times with low energy prices, the airline industry bleeds money. Due to its structure and competitive environment of high costs and overcapacity, a good year for an established company can mean simply breaking even. These days they can expect pain like no other, and it would not surprise me that trips like Jim's will become a thing of the past. We might see a re-birth of the jet-set.



now, 1) Chavez and OPEC are not only reason, but alongside China and India, are the main one. Let us not forget that Chavez has called for curtailments of production and if I am not mistaken he was the first to call for $200 oil as a way to bring down the Empire.

2)Speculation, hording excluded, only helps to find a price and not to set a price. Soon enough it will be know if they drove the price up. Oil stocks have risen, if speculators are the main cause, prices will fall precipitously, otherwise, they drop a bit before going up again.

3)OPEC is a cartel, cartels are illegal in the US, and no free-market advocate would support a cartel like OPEC. Adam Smith would love for individually owned wells, with no coordination, and low entry barriers so as to have zero profit and optimal pricing. However, middle east and Venezuela (like Bolivia and her gas) have exercised their national sovereignty and decided to screw both "oil barons" (wtf? don't most retirement pension plans, like CALPERS, own most oil companies) and the little guy.

All of this is just a transfer, from people on the street to oil and gas producing governments (not its people.) Some create further wealth like Dubai, other squandered it like Venezuela and Bolivia.

9:07 AM  
Blogger bowsie said...

Anon, 9.07.

I'm not an economics expert. So I am on shaky ground here to a certain extent, so please bear with me.

1) I was really just teasing the term "Chavez and his buddies"...

2) Commodity speculation on oil has seen it's greatest year-on-year increase in the past twelve months. From what I understand, much of this is from money flooding from recently collapsed credit markets etc. I wish I had a great understanding of this speculation other than I've read op-eds in the business pages saying this is the key factor behind driving up prices - and that the market is being manipulated in order to make profits for speculators. Again I've a basic understanding of this. Maybe you can elaborate.

3) Won't argue with you about the cartels. That's a fair point and I should have thought about before I started poking fun. As for the need for regulation of market speculation, I think that still stands.

As for Venezuela and Bolivia squandering profits... I think that depends on your point of view. Venezuela invested oil money in education, and has higher literacy rates than most of the western world. They invested in health-care, and now even the poorest people have access to health-care. They have invested heavily in infrastructure. Though I understand that the "fundamentals" of the economy are not particularly healthy - and outside of oil wealth it does not generate wealth effectively.

As for Dubai, sure they're creating wealth - while abusing the immigrant workers that build their cities (there is harsh criticism of this in the Department of State annual report on human rights). Also, de-facto governments such as the UAE do not have the same issues implementing trade policies as operating democracies.

But yeah, they still have created a functioning economy on the basis of their oil wealth and created an economy that is not dependent on it.

And as for Bolivia, what squandering are you talking about? If you are talking about the corruption surrounding capitalization then we are in agreement. If you are talking about Evo's policies, then it's still far too early to tell.

10:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bowsie, there is no "free market" for oil. State companies from governments control the vast majority of proven oil reserves, and many of them are part of the OPEC cartel. Much of the oil that could be produced in the U.S. and elsewhere by private parties has been made off-limits by governments (mostly thanks to environmental wackos and weak politicians).

By the way, speculators have always been blamed when prices seem to profit excessively high prices (although no one has been able to explain how much profit is "fair" and when prices are "excessive").

As you know, prices of commodities often change unexpectedly, making business risky. The speculator brings a degree of certainty to these otherwise risky ventures. When supplies of a commodity are plentiful and prices low -- but speculators expect the price to rise later -- they buy -- cushioning the collapse of prices. When supplies become scarcer and prices rise, they sell -- easing the shortage and lowering the price. Also, speculators may agree to buy a commodity in the future for a price locked in today. This reduces the risk for an oil producer (or a farmer, for that matter) who fears investing because he doesn't know what price his product will sell for next year.

As a result of these activities, volatile supplies and prices are evened out over time. Sometimes, speculators increase volatility. Markets are never perfect, but it's the best we have. But in general, speculators increase liquidity and keep the market on a more even level. This makes long-term planning easier for everyone.

On my part, I speculate gas prices will continue to increase next week, so I'll fill up my half tank of gas today instead of waiting until next week.

;-)

The Croats are Morales' Jews
Beni is Morales' Katrina

11:30 AM  
Blogger bowsie said...

OK, I've done a bit of reading on this to get a better understanding. From what I can ascertain the commodity markets have distorted the supply/demand model by basically becoming a new and sizable customer - driving up prices. Although there are factors such as the fall of the dollar and some small supply issues (though I said before, this hasn't changed dramatically enough to explain the rise).

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/quantifying-commodities-speculation.html

As an amateur at this, does this not point towards a massive lack of transparency?

Does someone have a detailed refutation of this article?

Again, this post has been hijacked. If Jim is reading, apologies.

12:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beautiful travel post, Jim. . . makes me want to jump on a plane and see some more of the world today. . .

12:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bowsie, this article refutes the "blame the speculator" for the price of oil and the need to further regulate the commodity markets.

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9479

;-)

The Croats are Morales' Jews
Beni is Morales' Katrina

2:01 PM  
Blogger chasqui said...

Traveling is fun

Jim's adventures are ok.

but this actually makes me envious

6:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Berkeley, eh?
That would explain a lot...lol

8:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What did you say Anon 9:07 AM?

"Franco, how does preferring the real deal on saltenhas and stating the conventional wisdom on the airline industry make a puppet for the right? I think you hate all that speak english...try smoking some herb with Grindio, does wonders in the chill out department."

Your assessment of the Oil crisis is just as lame as your writing.


Franco

12:05 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous 11:30 says: "Much of the oil that could be produced in the U.S. and elsewhere by private parties has been made off-limits by governments (mostly thanks to environmental wackos and weak politicians)."

Yeah those environmental wackos. Those idiots who don't want to use more fossil fuels. The fools! I mean what kind of moron believes in global warming caused by the green house effect caused in large part by the burning of fossil fuels? They listen too much to scientists I think, and we all know those scientists are part of a global conspiracy against big business. It's obvious! I listen to my gut, and my gut tells me the polar ice caps are going to only get bigger.

5:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Franco, you best keep quiet. You are keeping alive the stereotype that anti-establishment types only know insults and have no insight. Why insist on letting the world know just how ignorant you are? Or are you the "ugly-bolivian," you know the kind who gets offended by the success or abilities of their fellow bolivians?



Jim,

You better get ready to hit the road again. USAID is getting kick out of the Chapare, and your beloved natives also want ALL FOREIGN run NGOs out of Cochabamba. As per your Soro's experience, you should now be aware that the indigenous mob is drunk with xenophobic populist rethoric, doesn't distinguish the "good" ngos from the "bad" ones.

Would not surprise me that in fact, Evo's underlings are passing around lists of "bad NGOs," and have you pegged as a "secretive" arm of the Soro's Imperialist Jewish empire. Are you even aware of how anti-semetic this regime is??

Regardless, take care, tread carefully, and the best defense in these situations is to be in good terms with your neighbors. If they really like you, they might intercede in your favor when the anti-USAID mob comes with pitchforks and torches...

7:52 AM  
Blogger Norman said...

Jim,

I would have bought the coffee at Alexander's. Maybe next time.

Anyway, some of the latest comic news out of Bolivia: Bolivian region rejects US anti-drug aid in favor of Venezuelan aid My favorite line from this article: "We want USAID to go. If USAID leaves, we will have aid from Venezuela, which is unconditioned and in solidarity" Let me get this straight.. IF USAID goes, Venezuela will give unconditional aid. Does anyone else see the irony in that statement?

8:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I still couldn't digest the irony of that statement, Norman. I've been busy laughing too hard.

I'm just curious what typed of aid the Venezuelans provide and how it is distributed and accounted for. There have been multiple complaints that nobody knows. Besides, does such aid include other things besides money? Just providing money solves nothing. Does Venezuelan aid include technical expertise, project management and development training, and teaching competitive skills in an increasingly globalized world, such as what USAID did?

Oh, yeah, right. I forgot Venezuelans and Cubans in Chapare magically removed illiteracy (and healthy organs) from el Chapare. Thousands will descend into this newly highly developed "imperialist free zone." Unfortunately, they will be drug lords.

:-(

The Croats are Morales' Jews
Beni is Morales' Katrina

9:30 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Entre los proyectos de desarrollo integral, según la página web de USAID, se encuentran el programa de titulación de tierras en Bolivia, caminos vecinales, manejo sostenible e integrado de los recursos naturales y monitoreo del uso de suelos en los Yungas y el trópico de Cochabamba, actividad rural competitiva y fondo comunitario de desarrollo.

En el organismo de cooperación estadounidense destacaron que en el marco del desarrollo alternativo apoyan sobre todo la exportación del banano, especialmente a Argentina: mientras que en 2001 se exportaron 300.000 cajas de banano, ahora son tres millones de cajas. También apoyan la producción de palmito, pimienta negra, piña y otros, generando la exportación de productos lícitos 8,6 millones de dólares.

Alrededor de 2.400 kilómetros de caminos vecinales fueron mejorados, los que tienen mejoramiento continuo, de modo que constituyen, según USAID, la mejor red vial del país. Desde 1999 se han construido 82 puentes, de modo que cada vez más se integra todo el trópico de Cochabamba. "


It is obvious that this entirely a drug related issue. Cocaleros (1) never wanted any other crop BUT coca to be grown in Chapare. (2) Their sindicate has always and sometime violently opposed any attempt to give land titles to their members. (3) Have also oppossed any attempt to set up any type of government in the region other than their sindicate.


I also find it curious, how after decades gov't, ngo, and international organization efforts to figth illiteracy, Venezuela comes in and after a couple of weeks, everyone knows how to read....wow.

ps. what happened to all of Evo's supporters? so quiet here, may be they realized that he is a Mugabe and not a Mandela.

10:18 AM  
Blogger bowsie said...

ps. what happened to all of Evo's supporters? so quiet here, may be they realized that he is a Mugabe and not a Mandela.

I think calling Evo a Mugabe is taking it a bit far. First lets recognise that there has not been one good president in Bolivia in our (OK at least my) lifetime. Maybe the first Victor Paz government is the last decent one. President of Bolivia is a poison chalice. And in my eyes he's done no better or worse than those that have come before him - and for many of us that is simply not good enough.

I think as far as personal integrity goes, Evo is honest in comparison to any of the charlatans that have gone before him. However he has proven himself to be incredibly churlish, dogmatic, poor on compromise, terrible on pragmatism, assumptive and sometimes very weak. I think he's a decent guy in a terrible party, with some admirable qualities but not up to the job of juggling so many of Bolivia's competing interests.

However, as Jim has said many times here, there are parts of Bolivia that will simply not be ruled by an indigenous person. They refuse to engage on that basis.

Mandela found South Africa impossible to rule because he had unwittingly signed away the entire economic structure to the whites that enslaved him - so maybe the comparison is inadvertently suitable.

Mugabe slaughtered thousands of political opponents and imposed de facto rule. So that comparison is probably not so suitable.

11:25 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

“Franco, you best keep quiet. You are keeping alive the stereotype that anti-establishment types only know insults and have no insight. Why insist on letting the world know just how ignorant you are? Or are you the "ugly-bolivian," you know the kind who gets offended by the success or abilities of their fellow bolivians?”

Anon 7:52 AM,

I think you have disabilities not “abilities”. As for you supposed “success”, I only know of your useless dribble about the airline business, the oil business etc. Stick to eating “saltenhas”, which by the way it is spelled salteñas. But don’t eat too many, they cause heartburn.

On a serious note, unless you are part owner in one of the oil giants, you and millions of others in the U.S. will not benefit from future off shore drilling for a very long time. Those resources according to Guy Caruso, the head of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S., “would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030”.

In other words those concessions will cause the stocks for the oil giants to rise because said concession will guarantee a coveted petroleum piggy bank for investors.

Franco

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adlgNMu.LrHg

11:32 AM  
Blogger bowsie said...

This post has been removed by the author.

11:33 AM  
Blogger Norman said...

Sorry, I'm still stuck on the unconditional VZ support y me pregunto... I wonder what would happen to all of this if Evo is rejected in August and someone like Tuto ended up in power? An unlikely scenario, but I suspect there would be a lot fewer unconditional Chavez checks. Now look at US support that in spite of all of Morales' rantings, insults and accusations, has continued.

11:34 AM  
Blogger bowsie said...

Franco, you best keep quiet. You are keeping alive the stereotype that anti-establishment types only know insults and have no insight.

I think this board is a living testament to the fact that that quality is shared by all members on the extremes of the ideological divide.

11:35 AM  
Blogger bowsie said...

Sorry, I'm still stuck on the unconditional VZ support y me pregunto... I wonder what would happen to all of this if Evo is rejected in August and someone like Tuto ended up in power? An unlikely scenario, but I suspect there would be a lot fewer unconditional Chavez checks. Now look at US support that in spite of all of Morales' rantings, insults and accusations, has continued.

Ho Ho Ho. Selective fact picking rules supreme.

12:31 PM  
Blogger Aaron said...

Franco,

First, the report assumes that the ban on offshore development would not be lifted until 2012 so production cold not start until 2017. And was written before current high prices, and does not include the Alaska fields which are large.
Even so the production may not have a large impact on prices, as the oil market is global. This is even more true for Chavez selling his oil to china instead of the US (he takes nothing from world oil production).
But it will have an impact on the economy by reducing our dependence on foreign oil and creating economic benefit. It will also help out will concerns about production in countries like Nigeria.
Even with out Alaska technically recoverable undiscovered resources in the lower 48 states increase to 59 billion barrels of oil and 288 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

12:56 PM  
Blogger Norman said...

Bowsie, we haven't officially met... I'm Norman - right leaning blogger with six years in Bolivia watching the political game. So whihc part of my post was selective? If a right-leaning government were to come into power, do you think that VZ aid would continue (i.e. no conditions), or has US aid dried up since Morales came into office (see www.usaid.gov/policy/budget/cbj2008 for budget data.) Has Morales not been ranting and slinging insults and accusations. Haven't gone head to head with you up to this point, because there's been very little that you've said that I strongly disagree with.

2:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oil prices will fall to $70 a barrel by 2015 as new production begins in countries such as Azerbaijan, Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan, the U.S. Energy Department says (Bloomberg News, "Report Predicts Eventual Drop in Oil Prices," http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/06/26/report_predicts_eventual_drop_in_oil_prices/). The price of oil, which closed at $134.55 a barrel Wednesday, will "ease somewhat in the medium term," the department said in its International Energy Outlook 2008. Oil will then rise to $113 a barrel by 2030, as the market remains "relatively light." In last year's report the Energy Department projected oil would be above $59 a barrel by 2030. Prices have almost doubled in the past year, reaching a record $139.89 on June 16, partly on concern that world oil production will fail to keep pace with surging demand in countries such as China and India.

What about the lefty mantra "you can't drill out of this crisis?" That's like telling a starving man "You can't eat your way out of being hungry." It's in great part thanks to the environmental and elitist wackos the world is in this mess. If they'd allowed the US to drill offshore and in Alaska, and had allowed to build refineries (last one built about 30 years ago) and nuclear plants years ago, there would be a much larger supply of energy available and less instability in the market.

;-)

The Croats are Morales' Jews
Beni is Morales' Katrina
Morales is not Mugabe...yet

2:09 PM  
Blogger Aaron said...

The business of speculators is to assume risk in exchange for money. the more risk the more money they want. they are not taking supply. crude contracts exist over a period of months, then the oil has to be used. the speculators are not storing oil in their backyards.

8:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

“But it will have an impact on the economy by reducing our dependence on foreign oil and creating economic benefit. It will also help out will concerns about production in countries like Nigeria.”

Aaron,

The output from those sources will not cancel out the market forces. The American oil producers are not going to lower their price because of patriotism.

Someone said in an earlier post, “Sometimes, speculators increase volatility. Markets are never perfect, but it's the best we have. But in general, speculators increase liquidity and keep the market on a more even level. This makes long-term planning easier for everyone.”

Does anyone have any comments on the gloom enveloping the American stock exchanges? Wait, I think I hear the cavalry…I mean the speculators coming to the rescue.

Hey about the UJC attack on a police station this week? I personally think our friend Costas, the “commander of Santa Cruz” AKA Mugabe # 1, is loosing control of his goons.

Franco

“Uno de los más recientes hechos violentos que caracterizan a esta organización, que se nutre principalmente de las barras bravas de los equipos de fútbol Oriente Petrolero (“Pesada verde”) y de Blooming además de algunas pandillas cruceñas, fue cuando la semana pasada incendiaron un vehículo policial luego de que la Policía detuviera a siete unionistas de un grupo de 25 que intentaron tomar un retén en el norte de la ciudad cruceña. Días antes la UJC anunció la toma de las sedes de Entel, Impuestos Internos, INRA, Caja Nacional de Salud, Caja Petrolera, Aduana e incluso unidades policiales para que la Prefectura sea la encargada de administrar esas entidades.”

“Existen versiones extraoficiales que dan cuenta sobre el entrenamiento que está recibiendo una elite de la UJC por grupos paramilitares de extrema derecha de Colombia, un trabajo que antes lo realizó Marino Diodato, un italiano con nexos con la mafia de su país y que organizó grupos de reacción inmediata en la Policía y el Ejército durante el gobierno del ex dictador Hugo Banzer.”

http://www.erbol.com.bo/noticia1.php?identificador=275&bdatos=notiportada1

12:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With this latest move, Costas' psuedo-nazi youth is trying to assert their expectations in the new autonomous dpt. They want to be part of whatever state police force that might emerge. Unelected assembly delegates are also passing new laws, so there is indeed a firesale going on favoring special interests.

Evo's triumvirate of AGL, Rada, and School of the America's favorite son Quintana definately need a counter, probably within the greater IP, because their economic policy coupled with a global slowdown, spells disaster for the economy. These guys are misleading Evo. Both Communist China with the world's largest US$ reserves and Haiti, the only country poorer than Bolivia in this hemisphere, have cut their fuel subsidies. The economy and gas shortages will soon put Evo in a corner.

He needs to put forth his version of autonomy and start re-integrating Bolivia back into the concert of nations. Otherwise, only Costas and company will benefit. Fundamentally still, Evo is not producing positive results in the traditional problem areas of corruption, nepotism, smuggling, cocaine, crime, unemployment, Goni's extradition, food security, inflation, etc. etc.


-desde la clandestinidad

12:56 AM  
Anonymous El Grindio said...

"try smoking some herb with Grindio, does wonders in the chill out department."

So this is where the action is re: spirited "debate". Under a travel topic?

For the record, Grindio is anti-drugs; herbs are for brewing tea, provided they are legal herbs. To chill out, Grindio forgoes energy drinks since they generally have two cups of sugar and the equivalent of three cups of coffee's caffeine.

The acuity of thought, warding off of alzheimers and antioxidents within coffee (taken along with milk products) appear to outweigh its detrimental effects.

1:55 PM  
Anonymous El Grindio said...

"It's in great part thanks to the environmental and elitist wackos the world is in this mess. If they'd allowed the US to drill offshore and in Alaska..."


No it's not. And even if offshore and Alaska sites were opened up, that only yields 2 million barrels a day. (According to one source, the US currently produces daily 8 million barrels while consuming 21 million barrels a day.) Here are the charts about what happens if you open up all the sites:
http://energybulletin.net/node/45477

In essence, if you drill offshore on restricted sites it would be like burning your furniture to keep yourself warm when you have firewood stacked outside.

The firewood stacked outside is a metaphor for the the 70 million offshore acres the oil industry already has access to but which it does not develop. If it drilled there then production increases by 5 million barrels a day. That is not happening so as to limit supply and increase prices.

As stated in the article below:
"Big Oil is more interested in pumping up prices and pumping up their own profits rather than pumping more oil," said Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass), who has co-sponsored a bill to charge oil companies a fee for land they hold that's not producing oil. "We should not even begin discussing handing over more public land to the oil companies until they first use [the land] they already hold."


http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/23/news/economy/oil_drilling/index.htm?cnn=yes

4:45 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Grindio can't handle...
THE TRUTH...
Just like the documents that show that Lieutenant Nava, the TV station bomber, worked at the presidential palace and the vehicle he drove was rented by the Venezuelan Embassy. AK-47 and C-4 in his possession.

Evo's regime backed by Venezuela is conducting state sponsored terrorism...

Bolivia has much more to worry about than the "Empire" and USAID... and the killing of that murderer Che. Which by the way was the best thing Bolivia ever did for mandkind.

1:35 AM  
Anonymous El Grindio said...

SPECIFIC RESPONSE: When E.G. debated in college, often-at the novice level-one might hear a wild unsupported claim like Anon 1:35AM's accusing Bolivia's democracy of "state sponsored terrorism".

The standard response that took out that argument was to simply say: "No link". No evidence exists that link the Bolivian state and a vehicle-which may or may not have been stolen from the renter-purported to have been "rented by the Venezuelan Embassy".

In mock trial (an academic activity El Grindio partook of at that same college) and later in Federal Court, when someone argued something that wild, the response was, "Objection, argumentative; no foundation; hearsay; relevance.

GENERAL RESPONSE: Of course, neither in college or in State or Federal court, has El Grindio ever came across such incoherent, wild claims disguised as arguments as those above. Why? Probably because college admission and being able to find one's way to the courthouse were sufficient barriers to preclude someone as troubled as Anon 1:35AM from making a fool of himself in the above venues. At least in the manner evidenced above.

1:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Croats are Morales' Jews I agree if you mean by taking lands that is not theirs
Beni is
(3rd José María Pérez de Urdininea
4th José Miguel de Velasco Franco
5th Pedro Blanco Soto
6th José Miguel de Velasco Franco
7th Andrés de Santa Cruz y Calahumana
8th José Miguel de Velasco Franco
9th Sebastián Ágreda
10th Mariano Enrique Calvo Cuellar
11th José Ballivián Segurola
12th Eusebio Guilarte Vera
13th José Miguel de Velasco Franco
14th Manuel Isidoro Belzu Humerez
15th Jorge Córdova
16th José María Linares Lizarazu
17th José María Achá Valiente
18th Mariano Melgarejo Valencia
19th Agustín Morales Hernández
20th Tomás Frías Ametller
21st Adolfo Ballivián Coll
22nd Tomás Frías Ametller
23rd Hilarión Daza Groselle
24th Narciso Campero Leyes
25th Gregorio Pacheco Leyes
26th Aniceto Arce Ruiz
27th Mariano Baptista Caserta
28th Severo Fernández Alonso Caballero
29th José Manuel Pando Solares
30th Ismael Montes Gamboa
31st Eliodoro Villazón Montaño
32nd Ismael Montes Gamboa
33rd José Gutiérrez Guerra
34th Bautista Saavedra Mallea
35th Felipe Segundo Guzmán
36th Hernando Siles Reyes
37th Carlos Blanco Galindo
38th Daniel Salamanca Urey
39th José Luis Tejada Sorzano
40th David Toro Ruilova
41st Germán Busch Becerra
42nd Carlos Quintanilla Quiroga
43rd Enrique Peñaranda del Castillo
44th Gualberto Villarroel López
45th Néstor Guillén Olmos
46th Tomás Monje Gutiérrez
47th Enrique Hertzog Garaizabal
48th Mamerto Urriolagoitia Harriague
49th Hugo Ballivián Rojas
50th Víctor Paz Estenssoro
51st Hernán Siles Zuazo
52nd Víctor Paz Estenssoro
53rd Víctor Paz Estenssoro
54th René Barrientos Ortuño
55th René Barrientos Ortuño
56th Alfredo Ovando Candía
57th Alfredo Ovando Candía
58th René Barrientos Ortuño
59th Luis Adolfo Siles Salinas
60th Alfredo Ovando Candía
61st Juan José Torres Gonzáles
62nd Hugo Banzer Suárez
63rd Juan Pereda Asbún
64th David Padilla Arancibia
65th Wálter Guevara Arze
66th Alberto Natusch Busch
67th Lidia Gueiler Tejada
68th Luis García Meza Tejada
69th Celso Torrelio Villa
70th Guido Vildoso Calderón
71st Hernán Siles Zuazo
72nd Víctor Paz Estenssoro
73rd Jaime Paz Zamora
74th Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada
75th Hugo Banzer Suárez
76th Jorge Quiroga Ramírez
77th Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada
78th Carlos D. Mesa Gisbert October
79th Eduardo Rodríguez Veltzé)'sKatrina
Mugabe are Banzer, Losada, Meza, Banzerin
Black Water = UCJ

12:07 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hugo Banzer was native to the rural lowlands of the department of Santa Cruz. He attended military schools in Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil and the United States, including the Armored Cavalry School at Fort Hood, Texas. He took a Motor Officer Course as the School of the Americas. Was a descendant of German immigrant Georg Banzer Schewetering
In 1970, when President Juan Jose Torres nationalized Gulf Oil properties and tin mines owned by U.S. interests and tried to establish more friendly realtions with Cuba and the Soviet Union, he was playing with fire. The coup to overthrow Torres, led by Hugo Banzer, had direct support from Washington. When Banzer's forces had a breakdown in radio communications, U.S. Air Force Major Robert Lundin placed the U.S. Air Force radio at their disposal. In early 1971, Banzer attempted to unseat the new president in yet another unsuccessful coup, this time with him as top leader. Upon failing, he fled to Argentina, but did not resign his ambitions to the presidency.

President Torres called an Asamblea del Pueblo, or People's Assembly, in which representatives of specific "proletarian" sectors of society were represented (miners, unionized teachers, students, peasants). The Assembly was imbued with all the powers of a working parliament, even though the right-wing opponents of the regime tended to call it a gathering of virtual soviets. Torres also allowed the legendary labor leader, Juan Lechín, to resume his post as head of the Central Obrera Boliviana/Bolivian Workers' Union (COB). These measures, and Torres' nationalization of Gulf Oil properties, angered his detractors even more, chief among whom was Banzer and his American supporters.
On August 18, 1971, General Banzer, at long last, masterminded a successful military uprising that erupted in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, where he had many supporters. Eventually, the plotters gained control over the La Paz garrisons, although not without considerable bloodshed. The levels of United States and Brazilian support for the coup have been debated but it clear that support existed at some level for Banzer. In any case, Banzer emerged as the strong man of the new regime, and, on August 22, was given full power as president. Interestingly, he received the political support of the center-right Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR) of former president Víctor Paz Estenssoro and the conservative Falange Socialista Boliviana of Mario Gutiérrez, considered to be the two largest parties in the country.
Upon leaving office, Banzer formed the ADN party (Acción Democrática Nacionalista), a large organization that attracted most conservative groups under his leadership. Banzer ran for elections in 1979 and 1980, obtaining third place in both contests. The 1979 contest remained inconclusive because, no candidate having received the necessary 50% of the vote, Congress had to determine the president, and it could not agree on any one candidate; the 1980 election would have led to the possession of Hernán Siles, was it not for the bloody coup of July 17, 1980, which installed a reactionary (and cocaine-tainted) dictatorship led by general Luis García Meza. With the military's reputation badly damaged by the excesses of the 1980-82 dictatorship, in October 1982 the results of the 1980 elections were upheld to save the country the expense of yet another vote. Siles was sworn in and the 1980 Congress reconvened.

Banzer opposed bitterly the UDP government of Hernán Siles (1982-85), but turned more conciliatory when Víctor Paz Estenssoro was elected president (by congress, due to the virtual inattainability of the 50% necessary for direct election) in 1985. Indeed, Banzer's party claimed authorship of some of the most important neoliberal economic reforms instituted by Víctor Paz to curb galloping hyperinflation, repress the ever-troublesome labor unions, and reduce the size of the government. Banzer finished second in the 1989 elections, but supported in Congress the third-place finisher, the allegedly left-leaning Jaime Paz, who became President with ADN help, in return for Paz's promise to support him in a future election. The former dictator again finished second in 1993, this time to the MNR's Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada. The MNRs plurality, in coalition with the small center-left Bolivia Libre party, made it possible to confirm the MNRs electoral victory. In the 1997 elections, however, Banzer finished first by a small plurality, and was able to take the presidency with the support of Paz and others in a broad rightist coalition.Hugo Banzer was the president during the Water Wars in 2000 which centered around the privatization of the water works of Bolivia's third largest city Cochabamba. Many protested the subsequent rate hike. Violence occurred when police and demonstrators clashed. Banzer then declared a "state of siege". When officials of the consortium who had bought the right to run the water works fled after being told by the authorities that their safety could not be guaranteed

12:11 AM  
Blogger E.L. said...

"When officials of the consortium who had bought the right to run the water works fled after being told by the authorities that their safety could not be guaranteed"

And then what happened?

1:07 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon (aka Beni is Morales' Katrina etc.) "What about the lefty mantra "you can't drill out of this crisis?" That's like telling a starving man "You can't eat your way out of being hungry." It's in great part thanks to the environmental and elitist wackos the world is in this mess."

Those crazy lefties! Environmental idiots! Imagine believing that continuing to burn fossil fuels at the current rate will melt the polar icecaps and threaten civilization as we know it? Where did these morons get that idea.

Oh yeah, I think it was from every single scientifically credited climate research institute on the planet.

Sorry anon, science isn't left-wing or right-wing, and if it wasn't for these "environmental wackos" we wouldn't even have a chance of fighting climate change. Grow up.

5:06 AM  
Blogger bowsie said...

Norman.

I think that what you say is valid but only in an extremely limited view that makes that argument so.

Yes, it is probably true that Chavez would not honor many aid commitments if someone such as Tuto took power. Bolivia and Venezuela's relationship is founded on ideological commonalities, and Chavez's aid is clearly aimed to further what he sees as a Bolivarian revolution in South America. It could be argued that Chavez may continue to support existing projects under an unfriendly regime, simply for propaganda purposes, but one would imagine that a Tuto would be quick about dismantling such projects, regardless of any enthusiasm of Chavez's part. The caveat to Chavez's aid is clear and open, commitment to the Bolivarian cause. There is no demand to structurally change the economy for Venezuela's advantage, or hidden caveats that reduce the working power of the receiving government.

American aid, including USAID, is much more nuanced. Firstly, there are plenty of people working in American government who have noble intentions towards Bolivia and many programs have clear and charitable intentions - regardless of the government's make-up. But Norman, if you are suggesting that American aid to Bolivia is somehow benign, then I you are selectively picking programs.

Firstly, only some small months after Morales took power, military aid to Bolivia was cut by 96%. Now don't get me wrong, this makes strategic sense for the United States, but that aid was still reliant on ideological compatibility with the States South American policies - like Chavez.

If you accept that the IMF, for instance, is controlled by Wall Street and the White House (which I do and you may not), then aid to Bolivia was reliant on Bolivia opening up the country for foreign investment, which as we know was an unmitigated disaster. Aid has consistently been used by the States to achieve policy goals, not through co-operation but through coercion. I'm not going to go into how the IMF uses structural funds to blackmail host countries - I'm sure you have the facts and either accept it or not. Aid has been tied to neo-liberalising markets and drug eradication.

Of course, there is the favourable funding of federalist causes by USAID, causes that benefit the United State's policies in South America but undermining Morales and in turn the Bolivarian movement.

Then we come to the history of US development aid since Victor Paz first took power in 1952. Because of senate and congressional records we see a detailed history of US aid being dependent on deals that favour US companies and economic policies - such as the Petroleum act of 1955. Aid was with-held on several occasions over the make-up of Bolivian governments, with left-wing "radicals" being removed before the flow of aid resumed. I'll not continue with the history of American money in Bolivia as we soon come into Operation Condor and the School of the Americas territory. This is relevant Norman, because the United States, as now, still views South American as their sphere of influence and have and will use aid as tools of subjugation.

In short, there can be no doubt that United States aid has a history, recent and less so, of using aid to shape government policy both overtly and covertly. This policy continues today. It is dishonest in many cases, but because of it's nuances is also charitable on occasion. Venezuelan aid is clearly and honestly tied to Bolivia's role in the Bolivarian cause.

Now I understand why people are uncomfortable with Venezuela having such influence in Bolivia, I certainly have reservations. But to suggest that US aid is benign and Venezuelan aid less so is, I think, a blinkered view. Venezuela is simply more upfront and yes, honest, that this is ideological aid. The US achieves it's aims through support regime change, corruption and voodoo politics and economics - and a lot a lot of lying.

6:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you Anon 12.11 for some actual history.

Putting something in context, what a concept! Something you will never get on this blog, mostly because I think Jim Schultz doesn't know what he is talking about half the time. I wish Jim would prove me wrong and actually start illuminating events in relation to Bolivia's history.

1:35 PM  
Anonymous El Grindio said...

Anon 1:35,
Maybe Jim thought it redundant to copy and past Wikipedia's section on Banzer since its assumed one would read background information-as needed-by referring to Wikipedia, as a starting point. That's what Anon 12:11 did, Anon 12:11 read it before copying and pasting it here.

I make no value judgment as to that act. I just am "putting something in context".

4:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I WANTED TO SHOW AND PROVE THE MOTIVES OF THE autonomies; SAME SCENERY, SAME CHARACTER JUST DIFFERENT NAME.
FIRST WERE THE COUPS
SECOND WERE THE COALITIONS
THIRD WERE THE ILLEGAL autonomies

7:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous wrote: "I WANTED TO SHOW AND PROVE THE MOTIVES OF THE autonomies; SAME SCENERY, SAME CHARACTER JUST DIFFERENT NAME.
FIRST WERE THE COUPS
SECOND WERE THE COALITIONS
THIRD WERE THE ILLEGAL autonomies"

Well the autonomous movements have now taken on a larger mandate but yeah, the founding of the autonomous movements is the political child of coups and coalitions. Coincidentally their genetic forefathers were all involved in these movements as well.

Not a democratic bone between them.

5:15 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ANONYMOUS 7:55 PM,

Thank you for the Wikipedia article on Banzer. You are correct that the "COUPS", "COALITIONS", and "ILLEGAL autonomies" are the same cholita wearing a different pollera (skirt). I made no value judgment as to your comment, remind you that writing in all capital letters is like yelling, and write this to reflect your values: VIVA BOLIVIA, CARAJO!

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