Monday, August 11, 2008

The Evo Landslide: How He Won It

A note to readers: Tuesday morning I did a brief interview with Amy Goodman and Democracy Now on the aftermath of Sunday's vote in Bolivia. If you want to see that segment of the program or read a transcript of it, visit here.

Updated, Tuesday at Noon

By any measure, Evo’s victory in Sunday’s ‘revocatoria’ vote was a political landslide. According to an official tally based on 75% of votes recorded (and his margin increases as those votes are counted) Morales won 65% of the vote, surpassing his already formidable 2005 victory by 11%. He won majorities in five of the country’s departments – La Paz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosi, and Pando – and is split bascally 50/50 in two others that are part of the supposed opposition, Chuquisaca and Tarija.

In what other nation on earth is the President supported by 2/3 of voters? More dramatic still this comes on the heels of decades of Bolivian Presidents elected with less than a quarter of the vote.

Where did the Morales victory come from?

Below is a table I put together comparing the department-by-department results for Morales December 2005 election and the equivalent results from Sunday’s vote.

Some important findings:

1. Evo increased his vote from 2005 in every department in the country, except for Chuquisaca, where he slipped from 54% support in the 2005 vote to 48% Sunday.

2. In four departments Evo’s support jumped extraordinarily. In Beni and Pando, members of the so-called “Media Luna rebellion” Morales support leapt by 25% and 32% from the 2005 totals. In four other departments Morales’ vote jumped by more than 15%.

3. In Santa Cruz, the heart of the anti-Evo rebellion, Morales got 40% of the vote, a 5%increase from 2005.

4. In La Paz and Cochabamba, which together represent almost half of Bolivia’s total population (46%) Morales won an average of more than 75% of the vote.


If more serious political scientists that I ever get their hands on more complete data, they’ll be able to explain all this more than I can. But based on these results I am guessing the following:
First, the strong base that Evo and MAS already has among the rural poor now seems virtually unanimous in his favor and has gotten the required documents to vote and voted in far larger numbers than in 2005.

Second, in Chuquisaca and Tarija especially, and in Santa Cruz as well, those famous civic leaders who claim to speak for their peoples will find that a lot of those peoples don’t support them at all. They support Morales. By controlling the local media and in turn the vast majority of public limelight, those ‘civic leaders’ have been allowed to paint a very distorted view of anti-Morales sentiment in their regions.

None of this gets to the trickier issues of how Morales needs to deal with regional leaders, and a third of the population that does stand squarely against him. That analysis I’ll leave to later. But these statistics do make it clear that Morales has a huge national majority at his side, and one that stretches across a far wider map than many critics would care to admit.



Notes:

The Bolivian population figures used here come from the national 2001 census. Here's the link.

The figures for the December 2005 election results come from the National Election Court. Here's the link.

The figures for Sunday’s ‘revocatoria’ election results come the National Election Court. Here’s that link.

The photo above is a beautiful shot taken by our friend Noah Friedman-Rudovsky, who shot it for the New York Times, ripped off by me from the Times’ web site without any permission whatsoever.

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34 Comments:

Blogger Lorien said...

Particular thanks for providing the links to the sources for the numbers. Regarding the Radio Erbol list of election results: I can't find any indication - are these more exit polls or have the final calculations been completed and released to the public?

11:06 PM  
Blogger Lorien said...

Is it fair to interpret Yes votes as "support" or approval? I don't think so.

The question asked of voters was whether the individuals should be kept in office. For many in Bolivia, direct-ish confrontation is culturally unpleasant and undesired. This is certainly true in Cochabamba.

Many people will rant about Evo and his policies, but many of those who rant would hold back from stating that he needs to be removed from office. That's an additional step that voters were asked to take, and the refusal to take that step - to remove an elected leader from office - does not necessarily indicate "support".

11:14 PM  
Blogger chasqui said...

Más vale lo malo conocido que lo bueno por conocer

Most don't want to overthrow Morales, they'd rather he finish his mandate.

The traditional right cannot possibly have worse leadership. Tuto has done an excellent job at making himself irrelevant and the traditional elites cannot find neither a persona or idea to rally around.

Unfortunately this could easily unravel if Evo's economic regime does not start to show results. Another referendum or vote would not be sufficient circus if he fails to deliver the bread...coming soon only in alasitas size. Inflation could subside some now that oil has eased, but there's still no job creation nor meaningful FDI. Time is also running out and he cannot possible have a long term plan that calls for soon-to-be-ex-president Chavez and/or the Kirchners who, like ALL argentine goverments, cannot be trusted to keep their word, EVER.

I have to say that I'm glad he'll drive Doria Medina out of business. I hope the rumors that he won't prosecute Paredes for giving in without a fight are false. Too bad, his son now won't even get to buy the presidential suite in San Pedro, personally I was hoping he'd meet Bubba over at Rikers.

Manfred should be careful as he is running out of friends. His friends in the army chose their logias poorly and their investments are not paying off. His own little side businesses are also going to be putting him in hot water.

The most interesting question is who will rise to balance Morales...after all it is part of the andean cosmovision...pares y no ch'ullas

12:22 AM  
Anonymous El Grindio said...

AUDACIOUS HOPE ALERT!!!

Could it be? Is it possible? Naaah, no way. But one can hold out hope...


EL PRESIDENTE EVO MORALES ANUNCIARÍA MAÑANA CAPTURA DE DIRIGENTES VINCULADOS A HECHOS VIOLENTOS

Mañana, domingo 10 de agosto, como a las 20 hs. cuando haya concluido el referendo revocatorio y se hubiese confirmado la ratificación del primer mandatorio y la revocación del mandato de seis prefectos opositores, el presidente Evo Morales se dirigiría a la Nación Boliviana para anunciar nuevas medidas políticas y pedir tranquilidad a la población, mientras cie ntos de policías se despliegan por varias capitales departamentales (con apoyo de comandos del ejército) para efectivizar la captura de por lo menos cuatro prefectos y cientos de dirigentes en todo el país, vinculados con los hechos violentos realizados en los últimos meses. Las pruebas en contra del prefecto Rubén Costas como líder de una conspiración contra el presidente y la democracia, serían contundentes, y apoyadas con filmaciones y grabaciones secretas, que serán difundidas por las agencias oficiales e internet. Las ordenes de captura serían firmadas en la tarde del sábado por una decena de jueces nacionales, pero efectivizadas luego que culmine el referendo para no empañar la jornada electoral.


El canciller Choquehuanca habría dado la orden de cerrar las fronteras el domingo a mediodía, para no permitir la salida de ninguno de los que tengan orden de captura sobre ellos. Los detenidos irían a parar a cárceles del departamento La Paz para no permitir que alguna turba intente liberarlos. El gobierno evaluó, por la cantidad reducida de integrantes de los que tomaron cuatro (4) aeropuertos en las últimas tomas que la mayoría de las detenciones no serán resistidas ante el despliegue de las fuerzas de seguridad.

12:34 AM  
Anonymous ABD said...

These numbers are very interesting, clearly puts the lie to the building media narrative that the remaining opposition Prefects are somehow the outright winners of an Evo win by 65%.

The winners of a vote they said wouldn't change anything... sigh.

Mr. Schultz, if you are stuck using Windows, use Alt - Print Screen to take a snapshot, then copy it into paint crop a little, and upload the table as an image!

4:57 AM  
Anonymous digitalcntrl said...

I am a little confused. How does such a landslide victory help in pushing a new constitution thru? I thought the problem was a lack of votes in the legislature to pass the new constitution?

5:23 AM  
Blogger mcentellas said...

Just FYI: As of now (7am EST), the official results are only 75% completed. So I'd hold off on creating tables until then. But, yes, the results are holding up so far about as they described above.

7:09 AM  
Blogger Norman said...

My guess is that as we approach 100% of the vote count it may swing even more in favor of morales. I'm guessing that it is easier and faster to count the urban vote than the rural vote. The rural vote is unquestionably more favorable to morales / less favorable to the opposition. 892 days to go.

8:57 AM  
Blogger mcentellas said...

Not necessarily. You have to look at WHICH tables are counted. Preliminary results are fine for determining winners. But to start analyzing data sets you need complete data.

9:08 AM  
Blogger Lorien said...

mcentellas:

Thanks for the clarification regarding the results. Where are you finding the current numbers?

9:36 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/12/opinion/12brooks.html?hp

it should be noted that andean tradition is collectivism, not socialism.

10:02 AM  
Blogger mcentellas said...

Election results are constantly being updated at the CNE website:

http://cne.org.bo

Also, there you can find data disaggregated to the department, municipal, district, neighborhood, and even individual voting stations.

10:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just like Evo won, Obama will. Not by such huge margins but he will defeat the dinasours.

Viva Bolivia with Evo, down with the sold outs like Goni, Tuto, Manfred, etc.

Investigate ill conceived fortunes now.

Put them in jail with Garcia Meza.

1:20 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's Obama's election to loose. His biggest challange probably comes from the outspoken Grindio types that validate the fear of corn-feed heartland americans that he's an anti-american socialist.

Still...everybody should remmember that the vote was NOT a "re-election" of Evo, it was a revocatorio and a good portion of the "yes" voters wouldn't not necessarily give Evo another mandate or even support his CPE....in other words IMHO Evo cannot claim to have gain political capital over the weekend, in fact you can say that he lost some and the prefects are actually the true winners.

1:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"In what other nation on earth is the President supported by 2/3 of voters?"

Try Alvaro Uribe in Colombia!

2:30 PM  
Blogger El Grindio said...

This post has been removed by the author.

3:09 PM  
Blogger El Grindio said...

Another anon American Mission "analyst/spin doctor" wrote that Obama's election is his to lose and provided "Alice in Wonderland"-analysis that claimed Evo's 65% landslide was a loss. Concurrently he claimed the prefects (apparently including Manfred and Pepelucho) won. Yeah, right.

Just like the claims, "Mission Accomplished" and "the Iraqi insurgents are in their final death throes", two years ago. Maybe in their parallel universe, where weapons of mass destruction await to be found in Iraq.

The election results speak for themselves. They were what they are: votes for continuity or, in the alternative, votes for severance of power.

Evo won by a landslide when ALL of Bolivia's votes are considered as a whole. A few prefects garnered more votes than Evo did in their region but did NOT stem the rising tide of votes for Evo in their region (with the exception of Chuquisaca).

Obama will win depending on: 1) the percentage of racists in America who are registered to vote versus the number of those who vote on the merits of a candidate and 2) if Obama can define McCain as a Republican. Exposing McCain for the pandering Republican that he is should do it. As shown on this blog by their comments, Republicans are the evil masters of deception. It is not a secret; the whole world knows it. They are competent only in transferring the public's wealth to their cronies because that is their passion. They know the transnationals will take care of them financially after they leave office, as lobbyists, consultants, employees or paid speakers.

Obama should not denounce those like moveon.org (or myself) whose heartfelt love of America places them left of the area on the political spectrum that "old school" political consultants (like those who lost Kerry and Hillary's campaigns) say appeals to red-state voters.

Nope. Instead, what Obama must do is go on the offensive against McCain as well as punch back every time he is attacked. Further, he should save a surprise counterattack for the eve of the election. He must be like Bill Clinton in that regard. He should lose his high-minded Bambi-like mindset. Politics is not for sissies (although closeted gays do well as Republican politicians because of their vast secret network that procur pages for them and hide their proclivities as well as land them jobs working at the US Missions).

If Obama denounces moveone.org (or activists like myself) to appease consultants, we will lose our passion to get out the vote for him. Some may even vote for Nader, again. That will result in giving the world-not just the US-what it does not need: four more years of Bush's manipulators in control.

3:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

...yawn...

3:20 PM  
Blogger Qwarto said...

This is an outstanding article! Thank you very much. I listened to you through Democracy Now and I was impressed by how accurate (from my point of view) your report of the situation in Bolivia was.

Muchas gracias, y sigan trabajando asi. Hacen un trabajo buenisimo. Por cierto, que buena localizacion Cochabamba, (el valle del clima perfecto) :)

4:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is anyone else having trouble getting to the CNE results?

7:16 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So Jim,

Now corporate Bolivian media is manipulating the public?

Do you do any actual research of your own or do you just wait for better informed lefties to give you analysis in the comments section that you can then present as your own for the western press such as Democracy Now?

7:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So, just to keep track.

Current inventory of explanations of why a 65% vote to keep Evo as President is not a mandate of anything significant:

1. Voting to keep him in office is not the same thing as wanting him to be President (see above). Creative voter mind reading on that one.

2. The election was illegitimate because it allowed governors to be removed from office by less that 50% of the vote (Manfred's argument before more than 60% of voters dumped him).

3. The election was won by electoral fruad (Manfred's argument after he was dumped by more than 60% of voters, no evidence offered).

4. Evo has wierd hair (it always comes up).

And where are our usual friends BolNica and Bolivia Libre? So silent? My bet is that it simply takes them more than 48 hours to come up with twisted logic that even they can swallow about why 2/3of the voters should be told to succomb to the wishes of 1/3 on all things important. But don't worry, they'll come up with something after they have cashed in their tickets to that Uncle Tuto innaugural that won't be happening just yet.

8:55 PM  
Blogger Norman said...

Can I sign up for option 1? I agree that morales has a mandate (I may have to look that one up one day), but I disagree that he's better off than in 2005. Mind reading aside, in 2005 it was a multiple choice question while in 2008 it was true-false. Polling 10 points higher is to be expected; it means he held about even. Same goes with the prefects, except some tended to poll significantly higher (the ones that get to keep their jobs... sorry Manfred.)

I'm still in my wait and see mode. These next couple of weeks will be significant. morales has appeared to be willing to engage in dialogue, while Costas didn't come across quite the same way. I'll also be interested to see how quickly morales holds elections for the vacancies.

As to the haircut, I can probably recommend a decent barber at Camp LeJeune.

9:42 PM  
Blogger Lewis from America said...

Second, in Chuquisaca and Tarija especially, and in Santa Cruz as well, those famous civic leaders who claim to speak for their peoples will find that a lot of those peoples don’t support them at all.
Second, in the United States and especially the rest of the World those famous media leaders who claim to informed the people will find most of them don't support them at all! So, Jim it's all B.S. and the truth will come out when the Shit (Bill Clinton) hits the fan.

9:51 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The CDE of Chuquisaca is reporting that Morales officially took 53.88%. Wow.

12:06 AM  
Blogger mcentellas said...

No sensible person will dispute that Evo has a mandate. That's clear. But so do the media luna prefects. That's clear, too. Hence, the impasse.

8:13 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Despite proof of voter fraude and intimidation, it doesn't cover the fact that almost 2/3 of Bolivia's population are officially identified as Latin American idiots a la Vargas Llosa et al.

He-of-the-weird-haircut gambled and won. The opposition prefects that really matter also won.

I expect Morales to provide another shining example of his vast understanding in world affairs and interest in human rights by denouncing Georgia for daring to defend itself against being swallowed up by Russia.

;-)

The Croats are Morales' Jews
Beni is Morales' Katrina

8:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cro

Crying for your defeat? Be a man, stop twisting a fact of life. Evo no matter what you say, is your stepfather and won by a huge percentage. Learn democratic practices. Please kneel down and kiss his feet.
Haircut? You must bold headed, it is your jealouzy.

Just like the rusians invade georgia some republican invaded irak. sounds familiar? Is that democracy?
Signed,
OCAR

12:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Evo had one goal with the referendum: Pit his legitimacy against the "civicos"

He (as well most) expected that he wouln't be recalled...so he "won" this point. However he "lost" on trying to prove that the "civicos" do not represent a sizeable section of society. Central to their critique of the "civicos" is that they represent a small "oligarchy" and that was what he wanted to prove, on that point he lost. The recall legitimized the "civicos" as (almost) elected leaders.

Overall, Bolivia was the looser. Now both sides have reason to become even more intransigent and have no incentive to seek a common ground.

3:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Croa/katrina:
Bolivia won, the few brainwashed cambas only account to a small minority in the country. Cambas have always since the begining of the republic tried to be separate, independent of the collas.

Read the book Barones del Oriente. It was the spaniards, now the croats and germans. Plus the camba colla renegades.
Eventually Bolivia will unify as soon as collas overpopulate santa cruz. Just wait and see.

7:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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2:34 AM  
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9:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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4:19 AM  

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