Bolivia Takes Gold in 'Most Elections' Competition

I keep looking for an opportunity to write here about something besides Bolivian politics, really.

I'd like to write about the new baby cow near our house that occupies my daughter's attention some afternoons, or about the new oat and alfalfa plants growing in the fields these day. Or to even write a Blog post about my cousin Sarah getting picked as John McCain's running mate. But political events in Bolivia never stand still for long, alas.

According to a new study reported on in today's Bolivian press, the country is now in third place in Latin America for the highest rate of inflation (behind Venezuela and Nicaragua). This is not news, of course, to food shoppers here.

But I am willing to bet that Bolivia easily vaults to first place in another category -- most elections.

So far this year we have had a serious of legally questionable regional votes on autonomy, and a national vote this month on whether to keep the President, Vice-President and eight of the nation's nine governors in office. And yesterday President Morales announced that he'd like to keep Bolivia's 'election madness' going. By Presidential decree he is scheduling a national vote on December 7th – on the proposed new constitution backed by MAS, along with elections for governor in La Paz in Cochabamba (where the incumbents were removed August 10th by voters) and sub-officials in all nine departments.

Suffice it to say, Morales opponents did not receive the decree with squeals of joy. Leaders in five departments, the so-called 'Media Luna' have threatened to boycott the vote – which in this case doesn't mean not voting but actually blocking the vote from taking place.

If we strip away all the rhetoric and sideshows, however, and get to the core of the thing, it isn't rocket science. It's called r-e-e-l-e-c-t-i-o-n.

It boils down to this. Absent a change in the constitution Evo and Alvaro have two and a half years left in office, are ineligible to seek re-election and would really like to stay in power longer, much longer. So getting a new constitution, one that allows for Presidential re-election is a big priority and with a 67% support tailwind behind them you can bet they are smart enough to know that now is the time to go after approval of that constitution.

The opposition knows that too, boy do they. If they can block a new constitution all they have to do is run out the clock. Evo can't run and there isn't a MAS figure anywhere near positioned to replace him. Rumors abound about the opposition looking for an indigenous candidate it can call its own, with names such as former Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada Vice President, Victor Hugo Cardenas, among them.

So while there will be talk in the coming days of land reform and indigenous autonomy on the one hand, and MAS power-grabbing on the other, the sign that really hangs over all these political moves reads: "It's re-election, stupid."

But optimist that I am, I still hope that a break in the political clouds will linger just long enough to talk about that small calf in the pasture. His slow chewing of sparse grass may be more representative of Bolivian life day to day than any of the political machinations under way.

PS: I was just kidding about John McCain's running mate being my cousin.

What Happened to "Democracy equals 2/3?"

I saw one again the other day, a pale blue relic stuck to a shelf of a lawyer's office in Cochabamba, a small flag reading: “2/3 Democracia”.

Not so long ago the streets of Cochabamba, Santa Cruz and a few other Bolivian cities were full of such flags, symbols of the opposition’s demand that each individual plank of the new constitution be approved by full 2/3 vote of the Constituent Assembly.

Well-scrubbed youth could be seen wearing the same slogan on white t-shirts. I remember asking one such young woman who worked in a restaurant on El Prado here why she felt so strongly about the issue. "The owner told us to wear them."

Well that's one reason.

Nevertheless it was a heartfelt and aggressively advocated position. The nation should not go forward, we were told, on a path supported only by a simple majority. Bolivia needed something closer to a national consensus. And 2/3, dos tercios, was the chosen target, printed on flags and painted on walls like the one pictured above.

It's looking now like some of those Morales opponents wished they'd chosen a higher number, like maybe 9/10. On August 10 more than 67% of those casting ballots gave their vote in favor the Morales Presidency, and the course he is advocating for the nation.

So much for 2/3.

A Nation Divided, but not 50/50

Bolivia is a divided nation, to be sure. But it is not a nation divided in half. It is a nation divided by 2/3 on one side and 1/3 on the other, each demanding that the country be steered its way. Put more simply, imagine three people in a car on a road trip, arguing over directions at a fork in the road. Two people in the front seat want to go left, and the guy in the back wants to go right. Allowing sufficient time for discussion and argument of all views, at a certain point, do we really think that the guy yelling alone in the backseat ought to dictate the decision? Neither do most Bolivians.

The August 10 elections not only revealed the actual numbers on support and opposition to Morales, they also showed us where that split resides geographically. Gone is the argument that the nation is split in half east and west. Evo won majorities in two of the five supposed anti-Evo departments, Chuquisaca and Pando, and split the vote 50/50 in a third, Tarija.

In real numbers the opposition to Evo is really concentrated in two places, the cities of Santa Cruz and Sucre, urban areas surrounded by a good number of rural Morales backers. In other parts of Bolivia, especially the countryside, Morales support commonly exceeds 75%.

But those two cities know how to make noise and it is noise they are making now, seemingly all the louder as their political isolation becomes more clear and more certain.

Who Says it’s Your Oil?

Ostensibly the current battle lines are around revenue from gas and oil. Leaders of the eastern departments, including those Evo won, are demanding a greater share of that revenue and Morales insists on taking a piece to fund pensions for the elderly.

This analysis has gotten more attention of late, especially as Santa Cruz and others have shut themselves down in protest. But there are two big things left often forgotten.

The first is what I like to call, "But you haven’t even finished the slice of pie you have!"

Take a look at the budget figures for departments in Bolivia. As in most low-income countries, governments in Bolivia never spend all the money in the budgets they have. They just don’t have the capacity to get the money out the door. What do the departmental governments want to spend the money for that surpasses what they already have? It is not an unreasonable question.

Of course the Governors would like more money from oil and gas. Here in Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes Villa was one of the governors who complained most bitterly for a bigger share of oil and gas cash. But what did he buy with the gas and oil money he did have? Well, a dubious fleet of brand new overpriced Toyota Land Cruisers, three of which were a part of his personal entourage (I watched the motorcade in action on Election Day in Plaza Colon).

FYI, having shopped around for cars myself earlier this year I think Manfred could have done just as nicely, and much cheaper, with a 1995 two-door Toyota Rav4. Just be sure to super glue your taillights to the car (they get stolen).

The second problem with the gas and oil revenue analysis is what I like to call, "Who says its your oil and gas?"

For more than two years we have been hearing from leaders in Santa Cruz and Tarija about “our gas and oil, our gas and oil,” based on the claim that the luck of geology put it under their feet. But these are leaders from the cities, and the gas and oil is under the ground in the rural areas of those departments, including areas where Morales and MAS enjoy a good deal of political support.

It won’t be too much longer before the leaders of the Santa Cruz Civic Committee suddenly feel a tap on their shoulder from behind and a voice saying, “Hey dude, in case you haven’t noticed, that gas and oil you like to talk about as yours – it ain’t under Alexander’s Cafe or Burger King.”

Elections Ought to Mean Something

And finally there is this. Aren’t elections supposed to mean something?

Three times in a row now, by escalating majorities, Evo and MAS have won national elections – the Presidential vote in 2005, the Assembly vote in 2006, and again this month.

Yes, Evo and MAS should negotiate with their adversaries. Yes, MAS should not seek to build a monolithic state in which it assumes too much power. Yes, national operations should be decentralized so that people don't have to take a bus to La Paz to process a simple public form. But look folks, the vast majority of Bolivians have spoken, and spoken, and spoken, in favor of a turn of direction and it is time to let the government they selected govern.

This isn’t Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada in 2003, elected with less than 25% of the vote and half as popular as that by the time he fled to Maryland. This is a genuine and historic mandate. If all those people who, a year ago, said they were fighting for “democracy” meant it, then doesn’t democracy also mean that the majority, especially a strong one, ought to decide the nation’s path.

It might be time in Bolivia to take out all those old "2/3 Democracia" t-shirts and flags once more. Some of the people wearing and waving them could use the reminder.

My (Long Ago ) Joe Biden Moment

For a politician like Senator Joe Biden - now Barak Obama's running mate - who has been around forever, there are probably about 10 million people who have met him in one way or another. Nevertheless, political junkie that I am, I can’t resist telling my own “Joe Biden moment”.

It was the fall of 1974 and I was newly 17, a high school student in Richard Nixon’s hometown, Whittier California, and fresh with the glow of a new drivers license and the joy of having just watched Nixon get politically drowned in Watergate. It was a time of heady days.

I was also an addicted Democratic activist in town so Republican that the Nixon Room at the local public library still stood proud, resignation or not. So when the national Democratic Party doled out speaking gigs to party figures to come in and campaign for local candidates who would all lose, it was the unknowns who came visiting.

One of those was an obscure former Southern Governor, so obscure in fact that instead of actually having him speak anywhere we just had him knock on doors in the suburban metropolis of Norwalk. Two years later he was elected President, probably carrying Norwalk handily. You just never know.

Another visitor tossed in for a 24-hour visit to ‘loser land’ by National Democrats was a 31-year-old freshman Senator from Delaware. Also not a major draw, local party officials had him speak to two audiences. One was a small gathering at local Whittier College (Nixon’s alma mater). The other was my request that Senator Joe Biden come and speak at my high school – a lone pocket of Latinos in a sea of powder blue Republican leisure suits.

You might imagine my youthful excitement as I met Biden, with his driver, in the Pioneer High School parking lot.

I was by that time a seasoned political veteran, enough to not repeat the mistake I had made the year before when I convinced our local State Senator (and future Governor, George Deukmejian) to come and debate the death penalty. As soon as the rock-ribbed conservative got out of his car he announced that he needed to pee. A wiser head might have shown him to the faculty lounge. Instead I ushered the man in the black pinstripes into the boys’ bathroom where, this being the mid-1970s and California, a coterie of my classmates were smoking pot in the stalls.

The funny thing is that our future Governor seemed not even to notice the smoke or the smell.

Within minutes of Biden’s pot and bathroom-free arrival the two of us were standing on a stage before a cheering packed gymnasium of nearly a thousand students, none of whom has a clue who the guy next to me was but all grateful to be released from some combination of Mr. Riggins’ tiresome English class or early morning laps for P.E.

My introduction of Biden may have been somewhat over the top. His first words after were something along the lines of, “Wow, well with an introduction like that I guess I should run for President!”

Don’t worry; I am pretty sure it was not a boisterous introduction on a high school stage that gave him that particular idea. But then again, who knows?

Below is my letter to the editor, published in today's New York Times, responding to the paper's editorial last week. As the letter notes, I agree with the Times that dialog between the battling factions here is urgent. But let us not forget as well the open racism of key elements of that opposition, including the outrageous racial attacks against indigenous people in Sucre, captured in the video posted above. Sometimes what's required is more complex than the Times' beckoning from a hemisphere away, to 'just get along.'


August 21, 2008

LETTER

Racism in Bolivia

To the Editor:

Re “Everybody Loses” (editorial, Aug. 15):

You are right that dialogue between Bolivia’s battling political factions is key. But there is a larger point.

President Evo Morales, despite important missteps, is the political expression of the desire of the nation’s impoverished and indigenous majority to chart a new course for the country. His victory in the referendum, with more than two-thirds of the popular vote, confirms that. Yet instead of negotiating, Mr. Morales’s opponents have thrown obstacles in the way.

Some, although not all, of Mr. Morales’s opponents are driven by overt racism against the country’s first indigenous president. In May, indigenous supporters of Mr. Morales were marched by a mob to the center of one opposition city, Sucre, stripped of their clothing and made to chant anti-Morales slogans.

Genuine dialogue takes two sides, and until a responsible opposition unhooks itself from alliances with racists and radicals, Bolivia will continue to be ungovernable.

Jim Shultz
Executive Director
The Democracy Center
Cochabamba, Bolivia

Perspectives on Bolivia: Some Writings by Others

Readers:

In the week since Sunday’s election a good deal of valuable analysis has been written, all from a different perspective, none of it sole owner of ‘the truth’ (including my own), and much of it worth reading.

We thought we would offer introductions and links to four of these – most from friends but not all. I am sure that others know additional sources and we hope you will provide links below in the comments section.

Jim Shultz

The Street and the Ballot Box: Voices From Bolivia's Recall Vote
Alex van Schaick, Luis Gonzales and Teresa Carrasco

Published by Upside Down World, a web site that works hard and provides a solid collection of articles on not just Bolivia but Latin America as a whole (edited by our friend Ben Dangl).

Cochabamba, Bolivia - On August 10, leftist President Evo Morales, won a resounding victory in Bolivia's recall referendum. The vote invigorated Morales' mandate in what was a broad endorsement from his base and beyond. As Toribio Terrazas, a farmer from outside Comunidad Mamenaca explained, "I want the president to continue because he is forging a good path for all Bolivians in the country."

In the week before the recall referendum, and on the day of the voting, we interviewed number of voters, and political and social movement leaders about the importance of the referendum, the changes it might produce, and what they thought about president Evo Morales and prefect Manfred Reyes Villa.

Article, interviews & photos here.


Putting the Political Battle in Context
Mark Weisbrot and Luis Sandoval

Published by The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a solid research organization based in Washington that marries technical investigations with a progressive perspective, and a special interest in Latin America.

This past Sunday’s recall referendum was of course just the latest episode in the ongoing political battle between the MAS-led national government and an opposition movement in the Eastern lowlands that counts several prefects among its members. But what’s this struggle all about?

Control over resources, including land and natural gas deposits, is at the heart of it, according to a new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. The paper, “The Distribution of Bolivia's Most Important Natural Resources and the Autonomy Conflicts, shows that the concentration of land in Bolivia - among a very small group of landowners - appears to be among the very worst in the entire world. The paper also notes that even though Bolivia distributes its hydrocarbon revenues more than any in the world to provincial and local governments, the Eastern lowland states are advocating that they should receive even more of this money.

Read the full paper here.


"Change Comes from Mobilization,” An Interview with Oscar Olivera
Interview conducted by Sarah Hines

Published by the Socialist Worker, which offers a socialist analysis of issues and events often ignored by the mainstream media but still vitally important.

An August 10 recall referendum confirmed Bolivian President Evo Morales' tenure in office with a 68 percent vote--but also saw right-wing prefects, or governors, win big in four eastern departments that have been pushing for autonomy.

Meanwhile, the problems facing ordinary Bolivians remain unsolved, according to Oscar Olivera, the Secretary General of the Federation of Factory Workers of Cochabamba. Sarah Hines interviewed Olivera in Cochabamba shortly before the referendum vote.

What is the significance of the recall referendum?

The recall referendum--a measure that we have demanded for a long time--can mean a deepening of democracy. When the Water War took place here in Cochabamba in 2003, we organized a referendum around the issue to allow the rank and file to make their voice heard regarding this imposition [of the privatization of water] by the government.
At that time, the referendum was illegal--it was not thought of as a democratic norm. I believe that a referendum serves to deepen democracy a bit more, in that the citizens are asked once in a while if the rulers are doing their job well. But I see it as having more of a symbolic value than being useful as such. While a referendum can be a signal from the people, I believe the only way to change how the politicians govern is the mobilization of the people.

Read the full interview here.


Everybody Loses
New York Times Editorial

All sides are claiming victory in last weekend’s competing referenda to recall the Bolivian president, Evo Morales, and rival governors. But the continuing political warfare is leading the country to a destructive impasse.

More than two-thirds of Bolivians voted to keep Mr. Morales in power. His four main rivals in the gas-rich eastern lowlands also won by large margins. Mr. Morales claims that he now has the mandate to call a national referendum on constitutional reforms that would give even more power to the presidency and allow him to seek another term. All four governors have rejected those changes and insist that their wins mean they must now be given more autonomy.

The proposed reforms are already legally dubious. Virtually all opposition delegates were excluded from the constitutional assembly proceedings that approved the changes. Before the recall election, protesters blocked Mr. Morales from visiting the provinces of Tarija and Santa Cruz.

Read the editorial here.

Dancing in Urkupiña 2008

Readers:

It may come as a surprise to some who don't live here that not every event in Bolivia has to do with politics, and not every breath includes mention of Evo Morales. With Sunday's elections still just a few days old, attention here in the Cochabamba Valley has turned to something else entirely – Urkupiña, the festival of the Virgin (that Virgin) in nearby Quillacollo. Today the streets of that nearby small town are filled with thousands of dancers – a flowing river of detailed costumes and well-practiced movements that takes nearly 12 hours to pass from beginning to end.

And this year The Democracy Center is well-represented. Aldo Orellana and Leny Olivera danced both yesterday in La Entrada Auctoctono (the more traditional dances from the countryside) and today as well in the main event. And along with them today is Yi-Ching Hwang, born in Taiwan, migrated to the U.S. and now bringing her best moves to the streets of Quillacollo. We asked her to share her experiences in preparation for today's event here on the Blog, and here it is.

For those interested in more photos and explanations of what this festival is about, here is a link to our slide show and report a few years back.

Now, some might ask, "Jim, why aren't you on the streets of Quillacollo today, wearing a devil's head or perhaps a Caporales mini-skirt?" To that I reply – Wielding size 13 sneakers and a definitely 'gringo' appearance, I don't need to do anything to make even more a spectacle of myself in public here. Besides, someone had to work today. But stay tuned for Carnival. That nun costume might just be back.

Feliz Urkupiña a tod@s!

Jim Shultz


Dancing in Urkupiña 2008
by Yi-Ching Hwang

We all had to wear black underwear, not thongs, not tights, but black underwear. And one by one they checked us.

“Lift up your skirt and show it to me,” ordered our Sol Chaqueño San Simón fraternity sister, Natalí. I swear, she is not always this mean, it must have been the pressure of convite.

Around two weeks before the official Urkupiña Fiesta here in Quillacollo, a convite is held where all participating groups are invited to demonstrate their excellence. During convite we rehearsed the Urkupiña route, familiarizing ourselves with the bumpy pavement and sometimes windy, snake-like, narrow, cobblestone streets. It is a time especially for less experienced dancers to get their feet wet with street, parade dancing. Though not the official procession, lots of Quillacollo residents set out their chairs, lean over their balcony, and cheer the dancers on.

A couple of years ago, as a Peace Corps volunteer living two hours outside of Cochabamba, I participated in many city parades as a spectator. The last time I was in Urkupiña, I got lost in the wild, drunken crowd, hit on the head by a flying empty water bottle, and vowed never to come back to this crazy festival.

But here I am, chatting with the shoe repairman about the most strategic way to put rubber padding on the bottom of my black high heals to prevent the least damage to my delicate behind-the-computer-all-day feet. Urkupiña is only a day away, I have spent weeks and hours perfecting all those turns, choreography, and the best way to sway and swerve the long skirt to tactically show and hide my black underwear. Despite the lingering doubt about whether I can make it through 6 hours of dancing combating the different terrain and street size (not to mention potentially fending off drunkards), I can’t wait!

Chacarera is a dance from the Chaco region that is composed of bits of Paraguay, northern Argentina, and South Eastern Bolivia. The name is said to originate from the word chacarero, which means he who works in the chacra or farm. In Bolivia, the dance is characterized by mischievousness, vivacity and an air of ‘flirtiness.’ Danced in partners, the chacarera music is a mixture of bass drums, violin, and guitar.

Today in Cochabamba there are two main groups from whom one can learn this lovely dance. I joined the fraternity Sol Chaqueño San Simón out of almost sheer fate. Since May, on my way home from work, I would pass by groups practicing at a nearby plaza. Crisp night air, music and lively moves cutting through the otherwise stillness of the neighborhood, the plaza turned into an open stage sheltered by giant Jacarandá trees. It was too much to resist. Memories of high school and college dancing came floating up, playing with my imagination. Yi-Ching flaring about in the plaza with new Bolivian friends, learning new and cool moves?! The rest is history.

Sol Chaqueño San Simón is an open fraternity, all welcoming and encompassing. Our dancers include 7, 8 year old kids up until forty, fifty year olds. Physical stamina is the only limit. Anyone with a smile, strong dedication, and commitment can join. In July on a sunny Saturday afternoon, a few weeks after I started practicing, I was officially baptized into the fraternity. As a Taiwanese coming from a non-baptizing religious background (nor ever having joined a sorority/fraternity in college), for the first time in my life, I picked a godmother (my dance instructor), was drizzled with the plaza fountain water, and welcomed into the arms of the fraternity.

What followed was not just an afternoon of photos, reggeton music, and lollypops to suck on, but a beginning of a bondage that goes beyond learning the steps of this 8-part dance. Chacarera practice opened a door where we snuck in bits and pieces of cultural exchange, and sometimes even brief conversations of the most recent political topics.

“bichi, piching, iching...what is your name again?”

I must have been called a dozen names. But mixed in with the Y que venga la segunda Chacarera music, they all sounded sweet to me.

What are you doing here? From so far away? How did you decide to dance Chacarera? Can you sing that Taiwanese song again so I record it on my cell phone? It’s so preeetty!

Having spent half of my youth in Taiwan and half in the States, and then two years in rural Bolivia trying to do some development work but mostly perfecting my potato peeling skills and frustrated with my poor Quechua speaking ability, there have been days when I cringed and cried feeling like a black sheep not fitting in anywhere.

But these days, despite the supposedly division in Bolivia and what the news may broadcast as social and racial tension, what I’ve lived is a corner of Bolivia where there is curiosity of differences and going beyond that, a genuine acceptance. My Sol Chaqueño brothers and sisters come from Cochabamba, Santa Cruz, wealthy Cala Cala households, almost rural Vinto and Punata (towns 40 minutes to an hour outside of Cochabamba). For two hours everyday, what we do is work on our dancing but also on building harmonious relationships and keeping an eye out for each other.

When one lives intimately in a place, and daily is engrossed in the everyday lives of Bolivians, one sees beyond the news headlines of violence and racial conflicts. Sometimes amid political upheaval, we forget that Bolivia is more than just the recent referendum recall or the divisions over autonomy. As important as those topics may be, dancing in Sol Chaqueño San Simón provided a balance for me. Not only am I here in Bolivia learning about citizen power and taking democracy to the streets, I am also here building friendships with Bolivians and enriching myself with a dance that’s more than 150 years old.

Photo credit: Lynn Nesselbush

Bolivia: An Election Post-Mortem

I am always amazed at how people who don’t actually live in Bolivia produce such rapid and certain analyses of events here and what they mean. Official election results for Sunday haven’t even been announced yet by the Corte Electoral and already the Web is full of articles declaring with great confidence what the Evo vote meant and why.

In many cases these analyses are based on a simple formula:

View events – sprinkle briskly with pre-established ideology – come to conclusion that supports that ideology.

Sometimes the ideology involved is right wing: Evo’s victory is a dangerous win for Chavez-style social manipulation of the ignorant.

Sometimes the ideology is left wing: Evo’s victory signals the continuation of the hunger of Latin America’s poor for genuine socialism.

Do certain people abroad really believe that Bolivia is inhabited by women with long braids carrying Noam Chomsky under their arm?

After ten years here I have come to one relatively certain conclusion. Bolivians are like most people everywhere. When they think about politics they don’t really come at it ideologically. They come at it very practically. Their chief consideration is: what do they think will make their lives better, especially given how tough life can be here for so many.

Bechtel didn’t get kicked out because people wanted to fight corporate power (though the leaders of the Water Revolt did). It is because the Bozos running the corporation thought that they could raise water rates by more than 50% overnight and get away with it. In economics the technical term for this is called stupidity.

So, based on a different ideology, one called “Bolivians are smart and know how to look out for their interests,” here is my own analysis of Sunday’s vote – and it ain’t rocket science.

First, the “Age of Evo” was inevitable in Bolivia.

Most Bolivians live so close to the economic cliff that they worry day-to-day just about the basics – feeding their families, keeping a roof overhead, affording the 1.50 Bs. fare for the bus. Their obvious “class interest” is not ideological; it is in people’s faces hour by hour. There are certainly many people in Bolivia who do not need to worry about such things but they are not the majority, or even close to it.

For years the real political question in Bolivia was: Why hasn’t some politician or political party come along and figured out how to represent that majority and win its electoral support? Sooner or later it was inevitable that one would, and one did, Evo. It could have been someone else besides Evo and MAS, but it was Evo and MAS that set out to do so, while other left leaders focused on other things. And none of the others who tried the election route, like Felipe Quispe, had anywhere near the long-term commitment or savvy to pull it off. Evo and MAS did make it their work and they were aided greatly by the incompetence and ruthlessness by some of those who preceded Evo in the Presidency, adding to Evo’s base of support.

I know lots of people who went to the polls Sunday and voted for Evo and their reasoning is pretty simple. In Evo they see a President on their side and in the opposition they see a lot of leaders who look and sound and just like those who have ignored them. Every time Ruben Costas (the Governor) rants in Santa Cruz it only makes Evo stronger. Any hesitations they might have about competence or combativeness by Evo are really much less on their minds than the simple fact that in Evo they see themselves. And that is something very, very new for them in Bolivian politics.

Second, Evo’s Adversaries on the right are louder than their numbers.

The numbers from Sunday speak for themselves. Two thirds of Bolivians want Evo to be President, a third does not. You don’t get more lopsided than that in politics.

Look at it by region. According to the latest results, Evo will win majorities in seven of Bolivia’s nine departments, and majorities of greater than two-thirds in four of them, including two of the largest, La Paz and Cochabamba.

Where is the opposition? Well, it isn’t an overwhelming force in Chuquisaca the way those Sucre leaders would like to portray things. Evo is winning 54% in the department where “capatilia” is king. Opponents can certainly claim Beni, where 58% of those who went to Sunday’s polls voted to oust Morales. But with 100,000 voters out of 8 million Bolivians that puts it in a league roughly akin to Quillacollo, a smallish city down the road here where Evo won handily.

And then there is Santa Cruz, the only region of any size in Bolivia where Evo lost, 60/40. The real result of Sunday’s vote maybe the political isolation of Bolivia’s most vocal department and in particular its vocal leadership. Before Sunday one could speak of the Media Luna, a coalition of anti-Evo departments with Manfred Reyes Villa trying hard to add Cochabamba and make it five. After Sunday what you have is Ruben Costas and the usual gang of Santa Cruz civic leaders screaming for coups and autonomy and tossing out racial insults while they watch the rest of the country slip away.

How is it that the position of Evo’s hardcore opponents got so inflated?

Across Bolivia, the people who you see on the television each night (I do sneak a peak on other people’s TVs from time to time) or who you read about in the press, are not people like my rural neighbors who voted across Bolivia in droves for Evo. Who you see and hear from is a small minority of Bolivians who make an effort daily to be in the news.

As it turns out, the faces you see in the news sections of the paper are no more representative of Bolivia than all those smiling faces at the quincineras of the wealthy that you see on the society pages.

There is the bluster factor. The old Bolivian right wing, which it seems is really going extinct by way of the dinosaur, is making a lot of noise as it goes, imitating with hunger strikes and road blockades the attention-grabbing tactics long used by the left. There is no question, as I have written before, that civic leaders in Santa Cruz and Sucre have been able to turn their agenda into an appeal to regional interest with good success. But those pockets are getting smaller and more isolated, which may explains why Costas’ rhetoric is getting more extreme. Evo picked up seven points in Santa Cruz over his vote there in 2005.

Third, Can Evo Use the Moment?

Morales was skillful Sunday night, going back to looking and acting Presidential and leaving it to his adversaries to act like school bullies looking for a fight. When the votes are analyzed I think it will become clear that his support in the cities and among the middle class remains as weak as his support among the rural and the impoverished is strong. But he needs the cities and the middle class to govern. Acting Presidential is a good start.

But then he has a choice to make. Will he lead with initiatives that aim directly at people’s daily lives – like his programs offering payments to school children and the elderly? Or will he use his renewed political capital to push the agenda aimed more at making the shift in political power more permanent, by pushing forward with a vote on MAS’ proposed constitution?

While this current “Age of Evo” was inevitable (even if led by someone else) it is not forged in stone. There is one political force in Bolivia far more powerful than indigenous identity, class interest, or even regional interest. And that is public dissatisfaction. If people see in Evo a government that is incapable of lifting up their lives (even if they think he is trying) someone else will come along and capture that wind.

Morales and MAS have proven themselves very adept at politics. Very adept. But they have yet to demonstrate a similar adeptness at actually governing. If I were them I’d lend my attention now to that.

Photo: Los Angeles Times

The Evo Landslide: How He Won It

A note to readers: Tuesday morning I did a brief interview with Amy Goodman and Democracy Now on the aftermath of Sunday's vote in Bolivia. If you want to see that segment of the program or read a transcript of it, visit here.

Updated, Tuesday at Noon

By any measure, Evo’s victory in Sunday’s ‘revocatoria’ vote was a political landslide. According to an official tally based on 75% of votes recorded (and his margin increases as those votes are counted) Morales won 65% of the vote, surpassing his already formidable 2005 victory by 11%. He won majorities in five of the country’s departments – La Paz, Cochabamba, Oruro, Potosi, and Pando – and is split bascally 50/50 in two others that are part of the supposed opposition, Chuquisaca and Tarija.

In what other nation on earth is the President supported by 2/3 of voters? More dramatic still this comes on the heels of decades of Bolivian Presidents elected with less than a quarter of the vote.

Where did the Morales victory come from?

Below is a table I put together comparing the department-by-department results for Morales December 2005 election and the equivalent results from Sunday’s vote.

Some important findings:

1. Evo increased his vote from 2005 in every department in the country, except for Chuquisaca, where he slipped from 54% support in the 2005 vote to 48% Sunday.

2. In four departments Evo’s support jumped extraordinarily. In Beni and Pando, members of the so-called “Media Luna rebellion” Morales support leapt by 25% and 32% from the 2005 totals. In four other departments Morales’ vote jumped by more than 15%.

3. In Santa Cruz, the heart of the anti-Evo rebellion, Morales got 40% of the vote, a 5%increase from 2005.

4. In La Paz and Cochabamba, which together represent almost half of Bolivia’s total population (46%) Morales won an average of more than 75% of the vote.

If more serious political scientists that I ever get their hands on more complete data, they’ll be able to explain all this more than I can. But based on these results I am guessing the following:
First, the strong base that Evo and MAS already has among the rural poor now seems virtually unanimous in his favor and has gotten the required documents to vote and voted in far larger numbers than in 2005.

Second, in Chuquisaca and Tarija especially, and in Santa Cruz as well, those famous civic leaders who claim to speak for their peoples will find that a lot of those peoples don’t support them at all. They support Morales. By controlling the local media and in turn the vast majority of public limelight, those ‘civic leaders’ have been allowed to paint a very distorted view of anti-Morales sentiment in their regions.

None of this gets to the trickier issues of how Morales needs to deal with regional leaders, and a third of the population that does stand squarely against him. That analysis I’ll leave to later. But these statistics do make it clear that Morales has a huge national majority at his side, and one that stretches across a far wider map than many critics would care to admit.

Notes:

The Bolivian population figures used here come from the national 2001 census. Here's the link.

The figures for the December 2005 election results come from the National Election Court. Here's the link.

The figures for Sunday’s ‘revocatoria’ election results come the National Election Court. Here’s that link.

The photo above is a beautiful shot taken by our friend Noah Friedman-Rudovsky, who shot it for the New York Times, ripped off by me from the Times’ web site without any permission whatsoever.

Bolivia Votes: The Evo Landslide and Continuing Divison

Readers:

Given the strong interest in today's election, The Democracy Center team has been madly blogging in 'real time' all day, bringing news and reports from all over the country.

Since this post is particularly long we are dividing things up a bit. The top of the post offers a series of breif updates begining with the latest and going backwards chronologically. Following those are a series of on-the-street reports from four different cities -- Cochabamba, Sucre, La Paz, and Santa Cruz, to offer up a feel for the day here in Bolivia. Thank you for your interest. We invite all others who wish to add his or her observations and updates in the comments section of the Blog. We'll be back with more on Monday.

A special thanks to all my co-workers at The Democracy Center who gave up their Sunday to produce this reporting: Aldo Orellana, Leny Olivera, Lily Whitesell, Olivia Zink, and Yi-Ching Hwang. Trust me, they worked their tails off today to put all this together.

Jim Shultz


UPDATES

9:00: Evo's Address to the Nation: Returning to Presidential

Latest Results:

Evo Morales: Si (62%) No (38%)
Manfred Reyes Villa: Si (40%) No (60%)
Governors of La Paz, Cochabamba and Oruro removed from office, all other returned.

Shortly before 9pm, bumping Santa Cruz's governor off the airwaves, President Morales stepped out onto a balcony on Plaza Murillo in La Paz and addressed the nation. It was a return to Evo-the-Presidential, in sharp contrast the combative and name-calling addresses that have sprinkled the revocatoria campaign.

"Bolivia has lived today a historic day. It has deepened democracy," he declared in measured tones before a crowd draped in waving Bolivian flag and rainbow colored Whipalas. "The mandate of the Bolivian people must be respected.

He mentioned none of his adversaries by name, announcing his recognition of the Governors who had been ratified. He notably did not engage in verbal combat with his detractors in Santa Cruz nor did he refer to Manfred Reyes Villa, who stands alone among the rejected Governors in insisting that he will not leave office.

"The best way for Bolivians to unite is to respect the laws," Morales also declared, in one of several references to national unity. Morales named each of the nation's departments to emphasize the point. He also proclaimed his, "commitment to fight extreme poverty," and amidst chants of, "Evo the people are with you," said that his fight was to "bring dignity to all Bolivians."

Morales ended his speech with twin declarations: "Que viva Bolivia unida!" and Patria o muerte," the latter a favorite chant of a Morales hero, Che Guevarra. And so Morales ended his campaign with an appeal to both dimensions of his Presidency and his challenge starting tomorrow, melding together his roots as a President of South America's 'new left" and at the same time a leader desperately in need of a formula for national unity.

New mandate aside, he has a tough road ahead.

8:30: Santa Cruz' Governor Speaks

Santa Cruz's Governor, Ruben Costas, retained in office handily in today's vote, just weighed in with his televised appearance in Santa Cruz, before a large crowd of people waving the department's green and white flag. We don't know the department-by-department results yet on Evo, but it is safe to assume that he lost in the most rebellious of the eastern departments.

Costas' speech was combative from start to finish. He declared the region's commitment to autonomy and political separation from the process represented by Morales. He also laid down a string of personal insults aimed at the President. This follows by just a few days a formal call from Santa Cruz's mayor for the army to wage a coup against Morales.

This answers another question hanging over Bolivia tonight: Will Santa Cruz leaders treat the vote today as an opportunity for new negotiations and an attempt at reconciliation? Perhaps on the Pope's wedding day.

8pm: Manfred Speaks, Defiantly

Latest Results:

Evo Morales: Si (62%) No (38%)
Manfred Reyes Villa: Si (40%) No (60%)

Well we have the answer to the question; Will there be a battle for Cochabamba? Manfred Reyes Villa just gave a brief news conference in which he made the following points:

First, "I continue to be the Governor of Cochabamba." He declared the vote, as he has from the start, to be unconstitutional. Second, Evo should not celebrate his victory, since he lost (we haven't seen the regional vote yet) in half the nation's departments. Third, the reason Manfred lost, says Manfred, is that while he won heavily in the city (again, we have yet to see those results) he lost more heavily in the countryside because of "threats" against voters there my MAS backers. He didn't mention how that would work given that ballots are secret.

A quick analysis. It could be that Manfred is seeking to provoke MAS grassroots base, hoping for an attention grabbing conflict like the one in January 2007 that left 3 men dead and put Manfred on an airplane to the U.S. in Europe to play the role of democracy's champion in Bolivia. He may be just aiming to save face while negotiations happen behind the scene.

It is important to keep in mind that Manfred enjoys no support from the rest of the anti-Evo opposition in Bolivia, having just joined in an insult war with PODEMOS leader Jorge Quiroga over PODEMOS approval of the referendum law that led to today's vote.

So now two of the three key questions have been answered. Will Manfred lose? Yes. Will he fight? For now. Will MAS take the bait and give him the street confrontation he is looking for, as it did in January 2007? That we still don't know.

7:30pm: The 'Evo-Si', 'Manfed-No' Juggernaut Continues, and Reports from Around Bolivia

The lopsided vote in favor of Evo and against Manfred continues to only get only more lopsided as the votes are counted. With moe than 90% of the national voting caluculated, it looks like this now:

Evo Morales: Si (62%) No (38%)

Manfred Reyes Villa: Si (40%) No (60%)

Again, the governors of both La Paz and Oruro are losing by similar margins.

The politicians involved ought to give their various speeches soon, which will tell us as much as the vote itself. Will Ryes Villa vow to fight on despite the landslide vote aganst him? Will Evo be conciliatory or combative? Stay tuned for that.

6:30pm: Early Results - An Evo landslide and a Manfred Blowout

The national television networks are releasing early returns from the Electoral Court. These returns account for nearly 3/4 of the votes cast today, with the earliest returns slanted toward the cities as opposed to the rural areas of the country, given the added time needed to bring those ballots in to be counted.

Here's what the results show so far (rounded to the nearest percentage):

Evo Morales: Si (60%) No (40%)

Manfred Reyes Villa: Si (44%) No (56%)

And as the returns come in Evo's margin of victory and Manfred's margin of defeat are both growing markedly. If that is an indication of the impact of the rural vote the margins in both cases are likely to be huge.

At first glance what this means is that the polls showing huge support for Evo were absolutely right. It means that his support nationwide is significantly stronger now than it was in December 2005 when he was first elected (with 54%). It means Manfred can't claim he was defeated by the slanted rules. It means that the opposition in the eastern departments will either talk more in the language of defacto secession or start to negotiate. And it means that MAS will move quickly to organize another national vote, this one to ratify its proposed constitution.

More updates promptly.

5:30pm: Evo Speaks, Briefly

About an hour ago Evo gave a very brief news conference here in Cochabamba at the headquarters of the coca growers union. He congratulated Bolivians on their peaceful participation in what he called a "historic and democratic" act – reports from throughout the country are of a very peaceful vote – and then quickly left for La Paz.

We rode our bikes over quickly to try to catch him, but along with a good portion of the media, arrived three minutes late. Morales also announced that he would be meeting in La Paz with his cabinet at 6pm to discuss how to address results from the vote, thought I think any realistic reports are likely to come much later. Polling places here are required to be open eight hours, which means that many closed at 4pm. Results should start trickling in by 7pm or so. Watch for the speeches to begin closer to 9.

The main rumor watch here in Cochabamba, and question on the minds of people who live here, will be the results in the streets if Manfred Reyes Villa is defeated, as widely expected, in the revocatoria vote for Governor. Shortly after Evo's news conference I put the question to his official Presidential representative to Cochabamba. Nothing, he told me, was going to happen at least until the results are officially reported from the Electoral Court, Monday or Tuesday. While there are rival rumors that Manfred backers and MAS supporters are both preparing to "take" the state offices still black from the violence there a year and a half ago, the officers sitting in the lone national police truck guarding the door tell me they aren't expecting anything.

The one real police presence I found on my brief ride around the city center was at the main police station a block away, where a few dozen citizens seemed to be standing around waiting for something. I asked one of them what was going on. "It's the people who were drinking," he told me, lifting his hand up to his both like a tipped bottle. "And the people who were driving around." Apparently their family members are waiting for them to be released.

So can we please forget about that beer that got opened here at lunch?

4pm: Cochabamba on Foot

Under a nearly cloudless blue sky the people of Cochabamba and its surrounding communities took to the streets on foot this morning (and on bike) to cast their votes in a national referendum that will determine the fates of the nation's leading politicians, and to a good degree the nation.

Headed to the city center from rural Tiquipaya on bike, the roads normally clogged with Toyota taxis and SUVs (Bolivian automobiles, like its people, are divided) were filled with pedestrians. Parents walking with their children hand in hand, or up on their shoulders. Six-year-old boys on bikes creating traffic hazards with their oblivious criss-crossing of the street. Avenida Ecologica, the main thoroughfare to the city actually looked 'ecological' stripped of cars and draped by giant eucalyptus trees.

Actual visible evidence of an election was scarce if you didn't pass by a polling place. My neighbors had to walk a half hour each way to the public school where voting is taking place in Tiquipaya. Several pro-Evo banners were draped along the main road into Cochabamba. Appeals to voters to vote NO were more visible on the back of late-model SUVs.

The Electoral Court on Calle Simon Lopez remained cutoff from passers by, as it has been for several days. Maybe court officials fear that one side or the other is secretly planning to steal ballots, or maybe they just want convenient parking. Either way it is ribboned off.

The best ice cream in Cochabamba, Aragatza, was for sale in Plaza Cala Cala, as it always is on Sunday. The little company that sells its product out of converted mini-vans mist have snuck their van and ice cream into position before the midnight traffic curfew went into to effect. Who says Bolivians aren't good capitalists? Business was brisk.

On behalf of those working out of The Democracy Center today we were also glad to see that Tunari, our favorite place on the Prado to buy pique lo macho, was open. A volunteer is en route there by scooter to pick up lunch.

Arriving in Plaza Colon I stumbled into one of the main actors in today's political drama, Cochabamba Governor Manfred Reyes Villa. Manfred's comments have been al over the map in recent days, including a news interview Friday in which he declared his candidacy for President, whenever the next election might be. Today, surrounded by press as he came out of Catholic mass in the city center, on a day in which he has pledged not to vote (he has declared the election illegitimate) Manfred made his more immediate plans more clear. Win or lose today he won't leave his post as Governor. And with that he called for his small caravan of vehicles, slid into the door of one of the department's famous Toyota Land Cruisers and took off for somewhere not a polling station.

Say tuned for more shortly.

REPORTS FROM AROUND BOLIVIA ON 'REVOCATORAIA DAY'

Cochabamba: Three Different Views on the Street (Lily Whitesell, Yi-Ching Hwang, Olivia Zink)

Two days ago, Cochabamba rained, showering the city with drizzles and harsh winds. Rain in August is a phenomenon similar to what is happening today in Bolivia’s political scene. Unusual.

For the first time in Bolivian history, the country’s president, vice-president, and leading regional governors are being subjected to a national referendum. To stay or not stay, that is the question. And the answer is not so clear in Cochabamba.

By the stadium where the typical Sunday dog market is held, Oscar, an eighteen year old university student, plays with his for-sale puppy. From a family of six, Oscar is the oldest son and worried about his family’s economic situation. "I am thinking about getting a job, my dad doesn’t make enough to make ends meet," he announced. For Oscar, the problems of the country is caused by Evo Morales. “Since he started governing, all the problems started here in our country.”

At one of the polling stations at the local high school, a candy vendor in her fifties has a different view. “[Evo] is doing so many good things for the poor...teaching all the ignorant people how to read, how to write, so that they can defend themselves,” she proclaimed.

Finally, Marco Vargas who was walking with his wife along Avenida America Este shares his view. “I think that the best message that each one of us can take away from this is that we are all brothers, we are all from this land, Bolivia. And the government just as much as the opposition should try to find places where they overlap to move this country forward, not to sink it. Because what we do when we fight, when we confront each other, we reverse years of progress. If the government puts their ideas on the table, and the opposition puts theirs, then we can begin to build a country and a future for our children.”

La Paz: A Day Without Dynamite, or Cars (Julia McDowell)

This is the first day in weeks that the city streets have not rumbled with explosions of dynamite. La Paz is silent. The shops are closed this morning. Families and couples meander through the vacant streets, and even a few bicycles and pairs of roller blades whiz by, a rarity in this city of frenetic public transportation, aggressive taxis, and disorderly masses of pedestrians. The only sense of the days’ importance can be felt in the schools, which have been converted into voting centers all over the city, citizens flowing in and out of the dilapidated buildings and yards, dogs and children in tow. There are more police than usual, and they appear to be even more bored.

As the day wears on, a few shops begin to open. Vendors hawk pirated DVD’s on a few corners, while others sell soft drinks and candy from their stalls. The eternal faces of the city, the wraithlike figures that usually hide behind and within the metropolitan clamor, become starkly visible in the emptiness…street kids asking for alms from a sparse selection of passersby, alcoholics sleeping on the steps of closed storefronts having somehow evaded the dry law, and a street musician whose flute monopolizes the urban echoes, bouncing its solitary notes off of the city walls. These paceñas will not vote today.

It is now 3pm in the Colegio San Antonio in the center of the city, only an hour until the polls close. Marcela Jimenez, 58, is waiting for more ballots to arrive so that she can caste her vote. A bread seller, Jimenez is not a member of the MAS party, but she says, “The President can bring the country forward. Since I was a young girl, I have watched how the other governments were run by the few . . .We never thought a peasant could be president. That’s why I am going to support [Morales].”

Santa Cruz: Voting in the Island of Evo (Lindsey Frye)

It is a day of celebration here in the Plan 3000 [a strong pocket of MAS support in resolutely anti-MAS Santa Cruz]. The Sunday produce market was packed with many customers taking advantage of the holiday. One man selling vegetables explained why he didn't have much " I'm just selling the leftovers from yesterday, because it's prohibited to go to get more today." And yet people were buying up what was available.

As I walked to the polls (the local school) I met up with a woman from Sucre who's lived in Santa Cruz for ten years. She smiled when I asked her how she was going to vote and said, "I can't tell you, but I will tell you that I'm going to vote for Juancito Pinto." She explained that people here really want to throw Evo out, but that his government is the only one that has the desire to work for the poor, while other politicians work on stealing. As we walked a neighbor of the woman passed by and said, "good morning friend, off to vote for Evo?" and they both chuckled.

We passed crowds of happy people coming from voting with ice cream in their hands. Apparently the vegetable vendor was one of the few people who lost out on the holiday. All along the entrance of the school there were vendors set up selling a variety of snacks to hold over the voters waiting in line.

An older man from Guarayos stopped me on my way in to chat. I asked him if I might know who he voted for. 'Yes," he told me " I voted for Costas and not for Evo because I don't think Evo is doing his job. And when a government isn't doing its job, you have to replace it. But I'm really glad that there's been no violence." Inside the school there were crowds chattering away, some coming in, others headed out. A mason who is from Santa Cruz explained that since Morales has been elected he has had solid work, something that has never happened to him before, and the reason Morales has so much opposition is because his is the only party in Bolivia who has risen to power without having to firstnegotiate with all the other political parties.

Over lunch there were some rumors of the flocks of people coming from Argentina andsuspicion that they weren't legally registered to vote. But as the afternoon passes along, Kjarkas, hip-hop, mariachi and Chiquitano music arises from different corners of the neighborhood. In this part of the country the revocatoria referendum seems to be a typical Santa Cruz event, all ending in a big party.

Sucre: And Now the People Have a Chance to Speak (Zulema Paniagua).

Sucre experienced a pretty normal day on this revocatoria election day. Here in the afternoon we are awaiting results from the Electoral Court to see what the vote will be here in Chuquisaqa. Here the only vote is Yes or No on the President and Vice President of the Republic.

As far as incidents, there were only a few common ones, problems with identification documents and the detention of automobiles that were driving around without official permission.

Now, from the perspective of what took place here in Sucre in November (the conflicts over the demand that the capital be moved to Sucre, and the Constituent Assembly) the vote on the President means that the entire department will have its say even though opposition groups have tried to represent the whole of Chuquisaqa. That claim goes against the significant visibility of popular groups and indigenous groups and parts of the middle class who represent a different view. The groups that claim to speak for the region, like the Inter-institutional Committee do not enjoy the support of the majority of the population.

In the event that the No votes against Morales win, it is probable that the Inter-institutional Committee will feel that it genuinely does have the support of the people here. If that is the result, than radical sectors here could continue to commit acts of intolerance and violence, citing as a justification the public's support.

Forgetting to Buy Beer, and Other More Serious Observations on Bolivia's Election

[A note to readers: This Sunday as Bolivia votes The Democracy Center will be blogging in real time from locations around the country. We also invite all our readers in Bolivia to use the Blog comments section as a space to add their own reporting and commentary, and links to other sources, as the day progresses. So watch this space starting Sunday morning for the latest news and analysis on Bolivia's vote.]

It was the one task I ended up with after we divided up assignments for Sunday, and I screwed it up. Buy beer. It wasn't a hard thing to do. Just a few cold ones to have on hand here in the office Sunday for people who might come by while we're busy reporting.

But I missed the deadline.

By law in Bolivia, for 48 hours before an election, it is illegal to buy, sell or consume alcoholic beverages. Really, if you go to one of the big liquor or grocery stores here in Cochabamba you will find a giant yellow ribbon – the kind used elsewhere to mark off road accidents – stretched across the usually active shelves of wine and beer. Those are the official rules, at least.

But the real story is this. On Sunday millions of Bolivians will essentially be confined to their neighborhoods – driving is also prohibited. Left with nothing to do but pass the day with friends and family, you can be quite sure that those cold bottles of Taquiña, Paceña, Huari, and Sureña will not be left capped. The day will not be dry. The big winner on Sunday will not be Evo or the opposition but beer consumption.

And here is where the policy of "don't drink and vote" provides a useful metaphor for Bolivian politics as a whole. On one hand there are the official rules, and then there are the way things really are. If you want to understand Bolivia, it is important to sort out the difference.

A Nation Divided

Reporters have been calling all week with the same question – What will be the outcome of Sunday's vote? What the numbers will be I can't say. Several recent polls have shown Evo riding to a strong victory, surpassing easily his 54% vote in 2005. I still haven’t heard from anyone, however, a solid answer to one key question: Where will Evo and Alvaro get the thousands of new votes they need to compensate for their likely loss of support in places like Sucre? Supposedly Evo's natural base among the rural poor will come out Sunday in greater numbers and with greater pro-MAS enthusiasm than it did in 2005. Maybe so.

It is also true that for people to vote against Evo they have to have some sense that the alternative is more attractive. And if there is one thing that the opposition here has certainly managed to do in recent months, it is to make themselves look really unattractive.

Nevertheless, even if Evo does win officially on Sunday, the real results – like the real consumption of beer – will be something different. There is a reasonable chance that we will wake up Monday morning in a country where a majority of the voters support the President, but where he can't set foot safely in five of the nine nation's departments (states). He sure wasn't able to this week; enough to cancel a planned visit here by the Presidents of Argentina and Venezuela.

Win or lose, Evo seems to have settled in as the revered leader of half the country, and the devil in disguise for the other half. That presents a real problem for governing.

Evo the Ink Blot

Okay, lets be clear. There are certainly very important policy differences between the right and the left in Bolivia, and between MAS backers and MAS adversaries. One side wants to give chunks of land to the landless, the other does not. One side wants regions instead of the nation to control natural resources, the other does not. One side wants to insert the government deeper into the economy, the other does not.

But as I talk to people in Bolivia about Evo and Bolivian politics – and I talk to lots of people, all kinds – it isn't policy I hear about, it's something else. What I hear mostly is a raw reaction, pro and con, to Evo as Ink Blot.

The people who live out where I live in rural Tiquipaya support Evo with gusto. My daughter's young kindergarten teacher is campaigning for him. The wrinkled man who drove me home from the town plaza late last night speaks of Evo like he is his nephew. My neighbor with the braided hair, who takes a switch to the backside of her slow-moving cow, will be one of the first in line Sunday to vote to keep him in office. And they are for Evo for reasons far more powerful than policy. They are for him because they see in him, for the first time in their lives, a President who shares their humble background and who is genuinely dedicated to lifting up their lives.

Similarly, when you get anti-Evo partisans from the middle class to really let fly with their criticism, here as well it isn't policy that you hear about. It's fear. "He is going to take our homes." "He wants us to become just like Cuba." "He has no respect for professionals."

No matter that Evo has repeated a dozen times, including last weekend, that his government respects private property and he has never come close to seizing someone's house. No matter that his so-called gas "nationalization" policies are really just contract renegotiations with foreign oil firms. The fear, mistrust, and the rumors remain.

There is a reason for this. While Evo campaigned in 2005 pledging to be "the President of all Bolivians", for two and a half years he has done nothing substantial, in word or deed, to assure the middle class that he means it. Change, particularly the deep change underway in Bolivia, makes people very nervous. They need their leaders to reassure them not frighten them. Evo has not reassured Bolivia's middle class (a status that in other places would be called the working poor) that he cares and understands their struggles and dreams as well as he understands those of the most impoverished.

If you don't think attending to the needs of the middle class is important for its own sake, then consider its importance politically. If Bolivian politics really is a blood fight between "right and left" then the only certain way to keep the right from swinging back into power is to deny it the one thing it must have to survive – middle class support.

Which brings us to those rebellious departments in the east.

Looking Beyond the Stereotypes

It is not only Bolivians who have made Evo an ink blot upon which to project their deepest hopes and fears. A fair number of analysts from abroad have done so as well.

Mary Anastasia O'Grady of the Wall Street Journal has made a virtual career making whacko off-the-wall declarations about Evo as Lucifer, as have other right-wing columnists. But the left as well has been overly romantic at times in its pro-Evo analysis of all things Bolivian. The typical left analysis goes like this:

On one side is the impoverished indigenous majority and on the other a mostly white elite fighting to keep tight control over the nation's wealth and using control of the media to provoke public opposition to Morales.

To be certain, there is some truth in that analysis. Evo is trying to redistribute power and wealth to those who have long been blocked from both. And a whiter and wealthier elite threatened by that shift in power is the nuclear core of the opposition. But when you actually live here day to day you hear other things that don't fit the mold and make it clear that the story is not quite so simple.

A few months ago in Santa Cruz I had a political chat with a woman who sells chewing gum from a small kiosk. She told me – We don’t want our money to go to La Paz and get eaten up by the bureaucracy and corruption, we want to keep it here. Are we really supposed to conclude that she has simply been brainwashed by the media against her class interest? Is her point not a reasonable one? Anyone who downplays complaints about Bolivian government bureaucracy has never dealt with one. Trust me.

Then there is that taxi driver in Sucre a week ago. He was definitely not white or wealthy but he's driving around with an anti-Evo sticker on his car. He shared with me his anger that Morales and MAS never took seriously the city's desire to have some portion of the national government returned to it from La Paz. Are we to believe that he has merely been paid to say those things by someone with a bigger agenda?

Or here in Cochabamba. What shall we make of the young mother squished next to me in a rusted Toyota taxi-trufi, headed home wearily from a 12 hour day at work. "Evo, he just fights with everyone." Where does she fit into the neat analysis of "Evo vs. the Elites?"

These are real opinions and I hear them expressed here everyday. Bolivian politics, including the politics of Evo, is a good deal more complex than many analysts and activists, left and right, would care to admit.

What to Watch for Now

Certainly the first thing to watch next is the voting and the results Sunday. Will there be conflict during the voting? Maybe in scattered parts, in Santa Cruz for example, where strong partisans on both sides come into proximity to one another. But I think mostly the vote will be peaceful.

As the results come in Sunday evening, here's what we'll be watching for:

The Evo Results and the Reactions

Will Evo win and if so will it be by a clear majority or by the something shy of a majority that still keeps him in office under the complicated rules? Win or lose, will his message to the country be combative or conciliatory? Will his next move be an olive branch or a verbal assault on those who oppose him?

How will the opposition react to the Evo outcome, up or down? Will it send peace signals if Evo wins or declare that he is, in effect, no longer President of half the nation?

Cochabamba

What happens to Manfred Reyes Villa, the embattled governor here? He is the only one among the eight governors on the ballot who has declared that he will not accept the outcome of the vote. He also declared that since the vote is illegitimate that he would not campaign, but appears to be hedging his bet. On my taxi-trufi ride into town this morning I picked up a sky blue 'Vote for Manfred' brochure that features color photos of 16 public work projects he takes credit for.

Does Manfred, if he loses, declare to the press Sunday night that he is still Governor? If he does, on Monday or Tuesday do cocaleros and other core MAS-backers seek to seize physical control of the Cochabamba Prefectura (state office)? If they do, will Manfred's backers take to the streets again as well? Once again, if there is going to be serious conflict in the aftermath of the Sunday vote, the most likely place is here in Cochabamba. But here is an update. Manfred announced today, apparently, that win or lose he'll leave his post to launch a campaign for the Presidency, trying to position himself in the center between Evo and the opposition. That would be a neat fete of political contortionism. Don't bet on it.

The Other Governor Votes

In the other 'Prefecto' votes, what happens if any of them win by a simple majority but fall short of the 'extra-majority' they are required to win under the complicated rules approved by Congress? Will the rules of what it takes to win or lose start to shift?

That Proposed New Constitution

Sunday's vote is in many ways a warm-up match for the real battle ahead, a national vote on MAS' proposed new constitution. If Evo loses the new constitution will be dead, roughly in the manner of a squashed bug. Morales and MAS will have to use all the political capital they have left to try to hold onto the Presidency in the new elections that will be triggered in 3 to 6 months. If Evo wins, and especially if he wins big, MAS will use that momentum to begin the campaign for the new constitution immediately.

And forget all the talk that will take place around issues like autonomy, etc. The real fight will be over Presidential re-election. Without a new constitution Evo can't run again in 2010 and MAS doesn't have anyone else that can compete. The opposition only has to be patient two and a half more years and to fight among themselves over who takes the Presidency. But under the new constitution written by MAS Evo can run again in 2010 and will, and the opposition has no one who can beat him, not now.

Okay, getting back to that beer metaphor, the one about the difference between the official rules and the actual ones. That is the weakness of Bolivian politics at the moment. A game with high stakes is being played but no one is sure what the rules really are, what each side will accept. Most people here that I talk with hope that whatever the outcome that Bolivia will not blow itself apart. That would be a good start.

And by the way, another member of The Democracy Center team just reported that beer is still for sale at the small market around the corner. So I guess I still don't understand the official rules here, or the unofficial ones either.

Bolivian Perspectives: Two Views from Sucre

Readers:

As Bolivia heads into national elections this Sunday, and an uncertain political future thereafter, we begin the process of offering readers a series of “Bolivian Perspectives” on current events here. Lost too often in the political rhetoric of each side in the polarized situation at hand are the more nuanced views that step outside the box of the predictable.

We begin with two perspectives, very different ones, from one of the nation’s most embattled cities, Sucre. Last week we traveled to Sucre and include here two interviews from that trip.

The first is our conversation with Chuquisaca’s newly elected state Governor, Sabina Cuellar. Cuellar is an indigenous woman, the single mother of five children who most recently worked as a used clothing seller. She was also a MAS delegate to the Constituent Assembly who broke with MAS and President Evo Morales over the issue of making Sucre Bolivia’s national capital. In May she handily defeated the MAS candidate to become the region’s governor.

Second we speak to a young progressive activist in Sucre, Ronald B. Céspedes. He serves as Executive Secretary of DIVERSENCIA, a Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgender organization and is also a member of Indymedia Sucre.

The views expresed here are not our own, but both perspectives offer a valuable insight into the opinions now shaping Bolivia's future. We’ll have more interviews in the series in the days and weeks ahead.

Jim Shultz

Democracy Center Interview with Chuquisaca Governor, Sabina Cuellar

[Interview by Jim Shultz, transcription and translation by Aldo Orellana, Lily Whitesell and Yi-Ching Hwang.]

DC: What would you tell people abroad about what is happening in Bolivia? What is your view on the Bolivian process at this moment?

Well, in my opinion, in this moment in Bolivia, we are fighting among ourselves. Previously the governments didn’t make us fight, but now the current administration is provoking conflict between the city and the rural areas (campo).

DC: According to you, what is the most basic topic in this conflict? Why is there a lot of fighting going on in Bolivia? What are the different visions confronting each other in Bolivia? For example, as the governor, what dreams to you have for Chuquisaca?

Well, the reason why we are now fighting among us Bolivians is because the government does not respect the Political Constitution of the State, does not respect laws, it wants to govern like a dictatorship.

The government does not respect professionals, does not respect business people. It wants to nationalize everything, it wants to take away land and that is not fair. So, if [the government] wants to subjugate us like this, who is not going to react? Imagine if they want to take away my house...I am going to react, true?

It is because of that reason there exists division in Bolivia. MAS thinks it is owner of everything, we don’t even have the right to complain, we don’t even have the right to speak...If you are not Masista (part of the MAS party) and you don’t campaign for MAS, immediately they hit you, they want to take your house, your land away from you, and that is not fair because we are in a democracy, we have all the rights to express ourselves and that is what the government is not allowing for.

Now...from where are they pulling out this referendum recall if it is not in the Constitution? MAS wants to impose the recall because if the governors are revoked they are going to have to leave the prefectures. Then the government will not call for elections because they themselves want to choose as they wish the new provincial authorities.

And since there are no social organizations in the cities, it will be the rural organizations that will choose as they wish the new governors and that is illegal and disrespectful. It could provoke new fights again.

The government treats everyone [who are against it] like oligarchy...if you are Masista you have to subjugate to the government, but if we are not Masistas we are completely maltreated and discriminated. Those are the causes of the current fight and the division among Bolivians.

Also I want to clarify that since August 15th of last year, the day that the “capitalidad” topic was removed from the Constituent Assembly debate, Chuquisaca has been feeling maltreated. That August 15 violated the rules of the debates of the Constituent Assembly.

In Calancha (A military ground where in November of 2007 the Assembly approved by majority the new constitution, where confrontations between civilians and the police left three dead and dozens injured) when they approved the constitutional text by majority, we had not participated. Only a few people have participated. And what did the government do to achieve their objective? They sent us militaries, snipers, and red ponchos to kill us...that is not fair.

Now...of those events there have been three people dead and 400 injured, some now without hands, without ears, without eyes. Regarding the injured the government doesn’t even remember, doesn’t even give the feeling of mourning for the dead...on the contrary, they have parties dancing while we are crying.

To cap it all, they still want to come to Sucre...and that is why the people have reacted, because regarding what happened at Calancha [the government] never showed an interest in investigating...logical, an investigation doesn’t suit them.

Now...the events that took place on May 24th, have been prepared by them [the government]. We didn’t participate. However, the government immediately ordered an investigation, in which there is even an accusation already. Hence what is it that is happening? ... unfortunately it is not uncalled for, even I would react. We have suffered, we have been maltreated, “gassed,” there have been deaths...it hurts me.

But on May 24th, no one received maltreatment, the only thing that they did to those campesinos (people from rural areas/countryside) was took off their shirts and made them go around in the plaza...but they didn’t maltreat them. But the government in Sucre has killed. And who remembers that? No one. And that is why it hurts me, and that is why I believe that we are living in a time of dictatorship.

On the other hand, the family basket has risen a lot, and who suffers? The wealthy? No. The wealthy do not suffer...the poor are the ones who suffer. And that is very serious for me because the poor people are crying of hunger in the countryside.

Finally to conclude...the government should govern for all Bolivians, rich and poor. That is what we want, we don’t want fights, we don’t want confrontations.

DC: Do you believe that Bolivia is going to divide? Or do you believe that Bolivia will find the road to unity?

If the government reconciles with the whole of Bolivia, the country can arrive at a unity. The government should reconcile, it should unite us the rich and the poor, because among the rich and the poor we shouldn’t fight. The government should recognize its errors, it is in this way that Bolivia could recuperate.

DC: Are there any important messages that you would like to communicate with people abroad, especially those that are observing Bolivia in this moment? What would like to tell the foreign community, so that they could better understand the reality in Bolivia?

I would say....hmmm.... we need support, we need help. We need better professionals in order to unite us among the rich and the poor. Personal and political interests within Bolivia want to make themselves owners of the country. It is important to share decisions. We need orientation.

DC: For you what does it mean that a woman of your history, a woman of the countryside, a mother of a family, is taking on this role of governor, what does it mean from your perspective?

Well, I am not a professional, I come from the countryside...I have an experience of suffering. But the people have recognized my loyalty to my province (departamento), I have not betrayed and because of that the people have confided in who I am.

I value very much the professionals. They have supported me, they have confided in me. And thus I also value them very much. I don’t think we should fight between the rich and the poor because we are all Bolivians. I feel tranquil and think that one should work for all.


Democracy Center Interview with Ronald B. Céspedes, Executive Secretary of DIVERSENCIA

[Interview by Aldo Orellana and Leny Olivera, transcription and translation by Aldo Orellana, Lily Whitesell and Yi-Ching Hwang.]

DC: What is your analysis of the August 10 recall election?

Well, some people have said that the recall election won’t solve anything, and that may be true. But politically, the recall election can restore and take up the cause of the political process in Bolivia again.

The referendum invites even MAS to reflection about the mistakes that are harming this process. I think that at this moment, we cannot cover up all the mistakes that the government makes. Instead, if this recall election will help us take up the cause of the process of change, the people should be given the initiative to move forward with these deep reforms to the Bolivian state again.

Regarding stability, it is clear that there is certain instability. The lack of governability in the Bolivian state is also obvious. But there is also something in which I have to be quite clear… and it is that these conflicts that are occurring are provoked intentionally. I see it in the following way: it’s like a plot to destabilize the current administration.

At this time, the way in which the Central Obrera [the national workers’ union] and others are taking up pressure tactics against the government, from my point of view, is not doing anything more than reinforcing the right’s discourse in Bolivia. For other social movements and social organizations, we are growing little by little in Bolivia, and I think that this situation invites us to critical reflection about how [we can have] processes of advocacy towards the state [that are]… much more creative and novel. Also, we should rethink many issues that up until now, even within the left, are taboo topics, like the issue of the environment, or sexuality [sexual orientation].

In Sucre, this symbolic rupture between rural and urban needs to be resolved, a rupture which has existed because of the explicit and visible interests of powerful groups like the Interinstitutional Committee, the mayor’s office, etc. In this sense, in Sucre the recall election is very important, because it will help many people who at this time are being restricted in their freedom of expression, to feel and understand that in Bolivia, there is a national sentiment shown for change.

DC: What is your point of view about freedom of expression in Sucre?

After the events of November 2007 here in Sucre, and everything that happened on May 24, the intimidation that has occurred is notorious, and has had a relative success in a large part of the population.

The freedom of expression is restricted. You cannot express yourself freely in the streets because they intimidate you, they persecute you, they take photos of you, they publicly discredit you, they graffiti your walls, there is censure, and they even beat you. There is a very intense intimidation. But if our human rights are violated, we should not be silent. If someone gets beaten, attacked, it must be denounced, we must shout it, it must be said publicly, denounced to the international press.

The Federation of Campesinos [small farmers] of Chuquisaca defends the freedom of expression in the countryside. But when they come to the city they have to change out of their skirts and take off their hats so they won’t be attacked. This is very worrisome, there is a very well-known persecution. Our most basic rights are being violated.

On the other hand, if someone is a dissident in Sucre, they are [labeled] MASista. This is currently the discourse that is most common in Sucre on the part of the Interinstitutional Committee. It’s completely simplistic, reductionist, and mediocre. It’s the Interinstitucional Committee’s inability to debate different political positions. Here if you don’t have the same opinion [as them], they call you a MASista.

I believe that this situation is a process for the groups on the left. We should talk and do public activities to demand our freedom of expression. Now it is as though there were people living underground as though it were the Middle Ages, we should begin to leave the catacombs to call things by their proper name – with actions, pronouncements, denouncements, etc.

DC: What do you think of the new prefectural administration which has just begun?

Prefect [the title for departmental, or regional, governors in Bolivia] Cuellar is erasing all the vestiges of MAS within the prefecture of Chuquisaca. I know about real cases of people who testify that the Prefect tells them, “You can keep working [here] only by renouncing MAS [affiliation].” Some continue because they need the work or because simply, their political convictions are not very important to them.

The fight that exists between Prefect Cuellar and the Federation of Campesinos of Chuquisaca is well-known. One example of it is Sabina Cuellar’s choosing of subprefects without the consent or consensus of the rural areas. [Prefect Cuellar won elections in only one of the ten provinces of Chuquisaca. In the other nine provinces where MAS won, the campesinos have named subprefects, invoking indigenous autonomy. This has brought conflicts with Prefect Cuellar, since by law, only the Prefect has the authority to name subprefects.]

Now, the Prefect says that she will not be responsible for the arrival of the President in Sucre. [Evo Morales, in fact, will not be going to Sucre to celebrate Bolivia’s Independence Day, August 6.] Behind that I think there is an intimidating attitude, I say again, to attack the presence of President Evo Morales in Sucre.

That is worrisome because we hope that there will not be another May 24, because it would be much more aggressive. Sadly the Falange is growing. [The Socialist Bolivian Falange is the extreme right in Bolivia. It had disappeared for the last decade but has revived since the blatant racist acts in Sucre on May 24 and in late 2007.] Little by little they recruit people… and they have made themselves into a group for conflict for the Prefect and Interinstitutional Committee.

I also know people who at this time, after having supported the capitalía issue, want to work for the Prefect. This makes you notice and question up to what point and for what reasons it really is much easier for people to give up being on the left and switch to being on the right. [Alluding to Cuellar and others that work for her who used to be MAS supporters]

DC: What is the Falange Socialista Boliviana?

The Falange has a orthodox and fundamentalist vision which violates the dignity of the human being and of everything that surrounds him or her. It has a very exacerbated form of nationalism which under the three words, “God, Country, and Home” hides a series of manifestations which violate respect for human diversity. For now the Falange in Sucre is a conflict group, like the Unión Juvenil Cruceñista (Santa Cruz Youth League) in Santa Cruz, which commits many atrocities. But [the Falange] wants to recover its political party status.

DC: Anything else you’d like to add?

So it’s important to understand that this process of change, this Bolivian process, is irreversible and it will move forward with or without Evo Morales. That’s where the reflection is for the left. It’s that we need to be able to articulate ourselves in this process of change that does not belong to MAS, but rather to all of us.

New Poll Registers Evo’s Public Support at 59%

A new poll published in the Sunday edition of the La Paz daily La Razon reports that President Evo Morales’ public popularity has risen in the last month to 59%. The new poll was conducted by the Peruvian public opinion firm Ipsos Apoyo Opinión and was carried out between July 19-27. Morales’ approval ratings were up 5% since April, according to the survey.

If accurate, and if that increased support translates into actual votes in this coming Sunday’s national ‘revocatoria’ vote, it would signal that Morales is headed toward a second affirmation of his historic December 2005 election mandate.

But of course Bolivian polling is tricky business in all situations and especially against the backdrop of such intense regional polarization. The ‘ifs’ in this case are substantial.

First thing to notice here is that the poll was carried out only in the four largest cities in the country – La Paz, El Alto, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba. On the one hand, that leaves out a big portion of the country where anti-Evo sentiment has certainly increased since his December 2005 election (with just more than 53%), including the cities of Sucre and Tarija.

On the other hand, if the poll really was carried out only in the four cities, as the La Razon report suggests, and not in the rural areas outside those cities, than it is likely to underestimate Morales’ support there, and by a lot. Bolivian polling has been notoriously inaccurate when it domes to Morales, with none of the 2005 surveys coming even close to predicting his historic landslide in December of that year. Morales rural base is far stronger, as a rule, than his urban support.

A Morales victory that beats his 2005 election would have a huge political impact, reinvigorating his political momentum after a year in which it has been almost completely stalled by demands for regional autonomy and open conflict over a new Constitution and demands by Sucre to have it declared Bolivia’s capital. It would also likely jump start a new effort to bring the embattled MAS-drafted constitution to a national vote, a move bitterly opposed by MAS opponents. The proposed constitution would allow Morales to stand for re-election in 2010, something he is currently unable to do.

However, if the poll is wrong and Morales’ vote slips below the 47% needed to keep him in office – under the odd and complex voting formula approved by Congress – that will set off a new round of Presidential elections within 3-6 months, with Morales the far and away front runner.

I have this prediction…

I will make no predictions about the outcome on Sunday. And anyone who does is really just guessing in the dark.

Snippets from a National Meltdown